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Article

Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

1
Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
2
Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medical Faculty, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
3
Ministry of Health, Malaysia, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
4
Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan 94300, Malaysia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(15), 5509; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155509
Received: 28 April 2020 / Revised: 14 June 2020 / Accepted: 2 July 2020 / Published: 30 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Modeling in the Era of Complex Data)
Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; susceptible; exposed; infectious; and recovered (SEIR); isolation; movement COVID-19; mathematical modeling; susceptible; exposed; infectious; and recovered (SEIR); isolation; movement
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gill, B.S.; Jayaraj, V.J.; Singh, S.; Mohd Ghazali, S.; Cheong, Y.L.; Md Iderus, N.H.; Sundram, B.M.; Aris, T.B.; Mohd Ibrahim, H.; Hong, B.H.; Labadin, J. Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 5509. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155509

AMA Style

Gill BS, Jayaraj VJ, Singh S, Mohd Ghazali S, Cheong YL, Md Iderus NH, Sundram BM, Aris TB, Mohd Ibrahim H, Hong BH, Labadin J. Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(15):5509. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155509

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gill, Balvinder S., Vivek J. Jayaraj, Sarbhan Singh, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Yoon L. Cheong, Nuur H. Md Iderus, Bala M. Sundram, Tahir B. Aris, Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim, Boon H. Hong, and Jane Labadin. 2020. "Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 15: 5509. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17155509

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