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Article

Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy

1
Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College, London W6 8RP, UK
2
Department of Public Health, University “Federico II” of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy
3
CIRMIS—Interdepartmental Center for Research in Healthcare Management and Innovation in Healthcare, University “Federico II” of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy
4
Department of Translational Medicine, Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy
5
CRIMEDIM—Research Center in Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Università del Piemonte Orientale, 28100 Novara, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(16), 5644; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17165644
Received: 13 July 2020 / Revised: 30 July 2020 / Accepted: 2 August 2020 / Published: 5 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19: A Public Health Approach for Health Professionals)
In Italy, the COVID-19 epidemic curve started to flatten when the health system had already exceeded its capacity, raising concerns that the lockdown was indeed delayed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the health effects of late implementation of the lockdown in Italy. Using national data on the daily number of COVID-19 cases, we first estimated the effect of the lockdown, employing an interrupted time series analysis. Second, we evaluated the effect of an early lockdown on the trend of new cases, creating a counterfactual scenario where the intervention was implemented one week in advance. We then predicted the corresponding number of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, non-ICU admissions, and deaths. Finally, we compared results under the actual and counterfactual scenarios. An early implementation of the lockdown would have avoided about 126,000 COVID-19 cases, 54,700 non-ICU admissions, 15,600 ICU admissions, and 12,800 deaths, corresponding to 60% (95%CI: 55% to 64%), 52% (95%CI: 46% to 57%), 48% (95%CI: 42% to 53%), and 44% (95%CI: 38% to 50%) reduction, respectively. We found that the late implementation of the lockdown in Italy was responsible for a substantial proportion of hospital admissions and deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; evaluation; late implementation; healthcare; health COVID-19; lockdown; evaluation; late implementation; healthcare; health
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MDPI and ACS Style

Palladino, R.; Bollon, J.; Ragazzoni, L.; Barone-Adesi, F. Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 5644. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17165644

AMA Style

Palladino R, Bollon J, Ragazzoni L, Barone-Adesi F. Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(16):5644. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17165644

Chicago/Turabian Style

Palladino, Raffaele, Jordy Bollon, Luca Ragazzoni, and Francesco Barone-Adesi. 2020. "Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 16: 5644. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17165644

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