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Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection

1
School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
2
Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
3
Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(18), 6909; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17186909
Received: 22 July 2020 / Revised: 17 September 2020 / Accepted: 18 September 2020 / Published: 21 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Public Health Statistics and Risk Assessment)
This study aimed to estimate the infection curve of local cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Hong Kong and identify major events and preventive measures associated with the trajectory of the infection curve in the first two waves. The daily number of onset local cases was used to estimate the daily number of infections based on back-projection. The estimated infection curve was examined to identify the preventive measures or major events associated with its trajectory. Until 30 April 2020, there were 422 confirmed local cases. The infection curve of the local cases in Hong Kong was constructed and used for evaluating the impacts of various policies and events in a narrative manner. Social gatherings and some pre-implementation announcements on inbound traveler policies coincided with peaks on the infection curve. View Full-Text
Keywords: epidemic curve; back-projection; Hong Kong; preventive measures; coronavirus disease; COVID-19 epidemic curve; back-projection; Hong Kong; preventive measures; coronavirus disease; COVID-19
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MDPI and ACS Style

Chau, P.H.; Li, W.Y.; Yip, P.S.F. Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6909. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17186909

AMA Style

Chau PH, Li WY, Yip PSF. Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(18):6909. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17186909

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chau, Pui H., Wei Y. Li, and Paul S.F. Yip 2020. "Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 18: 6909. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17186909

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