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Article

What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

by 1,2, 1,2, 1,2,*, 1,2, 1,2, 1,2 and 3
1
The Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3
Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(24), 9241; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17249241
Received: 25 September 2020 / Revised: 18 November 2020 / Accepted: 4 December 2020 / Published: 10 December 2020
Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China’s crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding −25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding −10% and −5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China’s crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: consensus; climate change; yields change; China consensus; climate change; yields change; China
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MDPI and ACS Style

Huang, C.; Li, N.; Zhang, Z.; Liu, Y.; Chen, X.; Wang, F.; Chen, Q. What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China? Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17249241

AMA Style

Huang C, Li N, Zhang Z, Liu Y, Chen X, Wang F, Chen Q. What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(24):9241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17249241

Chicago/Turabian Style

Huang, Chengfang, Ning Li, Zhengtao Zhang, Yuan Liu, Xi Chen, Fang Wang, and Qiong Chen. 2020. "What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 24: 9241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17249241

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