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Article

Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector

Division of Thermal Energy and Environmental Conditioning, University of Genoa—DIME/TEC, Via All’Opera Pia 15/A, 16145 Genova, Italy
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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(7), 2259; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072259
Received: 3 February 2020 / Revised: 18 March 2020 / Accepted: 24 March 2020 / Published: 27 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Mitigation Strategies)
The present paper aims to introduce a top down methodology for the forecasting of residential energy demand in four European countries, namely Germany, Italy, Spain, and Lithuania. The methodology employed to develop the estimation is based on econometric techniques. In particular, a logarithmic dynamic linear constant relationship of the consumption is proposed. Demand is estimated as a function of a set of explaining variables, namely heating degree days and gross domestic product per capita. The results confirm that the methodology can be applied to the case of Germany, Italy, and Spain, whereas it is not suitable for Lithuania. The analysis of elasticities of the demand with respect to the gross domestic product per capita shows a negative value for Germany, −0.629, and positive values for Italy, 0.837, and Spain, 0.249. The forecasting of consumption shows that Germany and Italy are more sensitive to weather conditions with respect to Spain and an increase in the demand of 8% and 9% is expected in case of cold climatic conditions. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy; forecasting; energy efficiency; residential sector energy; forecasting; energy efficiency; residential sector
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MDPI and ACS Style

Bianco, V.; Marchitto, A.; Scarpa, F.; Tagliafico, L.A. Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2259. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072259

AMA Style

Bianco V, Marchitto A, Scarpa F, Tagliafico LA. Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(7):2259. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072259

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bianco, Vincenzo, Annalisa Marchitto, Federico Scarpa, and Luca A. Tagliafico 2020. "Forecasting Energy Consumption in the EU Residential Sector" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 7: 2259. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072259

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