Next Article in Journal
Factors Associated with Utilization of Primary and Specialist Healthcare Services by Elderly Cardiovascular Patients in the Republic of Serbia: A Cross-Sectional Study from the National Health Survey 2013
Previous Article in Journal
Strength plus Endurance Training and Individualized Diet Reduce Fat Mass in Overweight Subjects: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Article

Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

by 1, 2, 2,3 and 1,2,*
1
Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
2
Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-Ro, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
3
Department of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam 13620, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(7), 2600; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072600
Received: 1 February 2020 / Revised: 7 April 2020 / Accepted: 7 April 2020 / Published: 10 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Climate Change)
As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM10) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM10. We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003–2012), 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2080s (2076–2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM10 concentrations above 65 μg/m3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers. View Full-Text
Keywords: modification effect; high-temperature; inhalable particulate matter; regional variation modification effect; high-temperature; inhalable particulate matter; regional variation
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Jung, J.; Lee, J.Y.; Lee, H.; Kim, H. Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2600. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072600

AMA Style

Jung J, Lee JY, Lee H, Kim H. Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(7):2600. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072600

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jung, Jiyun, Jae Y. Lee, Hyewon Lee, and Ho Kim. 2020. "Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 7: 2600. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph17072600

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop