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Article

Using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Physical Activity Levels from Health Surveys

Department of Physical Education, School of Sports, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis 88040-900, SC, Brazil
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Academic Editors: Jorge del Rosario Fernández Santos, Jesús Gustavo Ponce González, Cristina Casals and Jose Luis Gonzalez Montesinos
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(14), 7477; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18147477
Received: 6 May 2021 / Revised: 6 July 2021 / Accepted: 8 July 2021 / Published: 13 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Bayesian Data Analysis in Exercise and Health Research)
Background: Large-scale health surveys often consider sociodemographic characteristics and several health indicators influencing physical activity that often vary across subpopulations. Data in a survey for some small subpopulations are often not representative of the larger population. Objective: We developed a multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) model to estimate leisure-time physical activity across Brazilian state capitals and evaluated whether the MRP outperforms single-level regression estimates based on the Brazilian cross-sectional national survey VIGITEL (2018). Methods: We used various approaches to compare the MRP and single-level model (complete-pooling) estimates, including cross-validation with various subsample proportions tested. Results: MRP consistently had predictions closer to the estimation target than single-level regression estimations. The mean absolute errors were smaller for the MRP estimates than single-level regression estimates with smaller sample sizes. MRP presented substantially smaller uncertainty estimates compared to single-level regression estimates. Overall, the MRP was superior to single-level regression estimates, particularly with smaller sample sizes, yielding smaller errors and more accurate estimates. Conclusion: The MRP is a promising strategy to predict subpopulations’ physical activity indicators from large surveys. The observations present in this study highlight the need for further research, which could, potentially, incorporate more information in the models to better interpret interactions and types of activities across target populations. View Full-Text
Keywords: survey methods; Bayesian analysis; public health surveillance; selection bias; statistical models survey methods; Bayesian analysis; public health surveillance; selection bias; statistical models
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MDPI and ACS Style

Christofoletti, M.; Benedetti, T.R.B.; Mendes, F.G.; Carvalho, H.M. Using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Physical Activity Levels from Health Surveys. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 7477. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18147477

AMA Style

Christofoletti M, Benedetti TRB, Mendes FG, Carvalho HM. Using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Physical Activity Levels from Health Surveys. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(14):7477. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18147477

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christofoletti, Marina, Tânia R.B. Benedetti, Felipe G. Mendes, and Humberto M. Carvalho 2021. "Using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Physical Activity Levels from Health Surveys" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 14: 7477. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18147477

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