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Article

Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

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Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Biología, Carretera Pachuca-Tulancingo s/n, Cd. Universitaria, Pachuca 42184, Mexico
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro # 8701, Ex-Hacienda de San José de la Huerta, Morelia 58190, Mexico
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Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Ciencias Agrícolas y Forestales, Av. Universidad Km.1, Ex hacienda de Aquetzalpa, Tulancingo 42000, Mexico
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Zahra Kalantari
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(4), 1846; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18041846
Received: 1 December 2020 / Revised: 27 January 2021 / Accepted: 5 February 2021 / Published: 14 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Warming & Water)
Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; mapping water availability; Sierra Madre Oriental; WaterWorld software climate change; mapping water availability; Sierra Madre Oriental; WaterWorld software
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MDPI and ACS Style

Bravo-Cadena, J.; Pavón, N.P.; Balvanera, P.; Sánchez-Rojas, G.; Razo-Zarate, R. Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 1846. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18041846

AMA Style

Bravo-Cadena J, Pavón NP, Balvanera P, Sánchez-Rojas G, Razo-Zarate R. Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(4):1846. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18041846

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bravo-Cadena, Jessica, Numa P. Pavón, Patricia Balvanera, Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas, and Ramón Razo-Zarate. 2021. "Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 4: 1846. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijerph18041846

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