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Article

The Epidemiological Signature of Pathogen Populations That Vary in the Relationship between Free-Living Parasite Survival and Virulence

1
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
2
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA
3
Department of Biological Sciences, University at Albany–State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Current address: U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
Received: 1 August 2020 / Revised: 16 September 2020 / Accepted: 17 September 2020 / Published: 22 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Virus Ecology and Evolution: Current Research and Future Directions)
The relationship between parasite virulence and transmission is a pillar of evolutionary theory that has implications for public health. Part of this canon involves the idea that virulence and free-living survival (a key component of transmission) may have different relationships in different host–parasite systems. Most examinations of the evolution of virulence-transmission relationships—Theoretical or empirical in nature—Tend to focus on the evolution of virulence, with transmission being a secondary consideration. Even within transmission studies, the focus on free-living survival is a smaller subset, though recent studies have examined its importance in the ecology of infectious diseases. Few studies have examined the epidemic-scale consequences of variation in survival across different virulence–survival relationships. In this study, we utilize a mathematical model motivated by aspects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) natural history to investigate how evolutionary changes in survival may influence several aspects of disease dynamics at the epidemiological scale. Across virulence–survival relationships (where these traits are either positively or negatively correlated), we found that small changes (5% above and below the nominal value) in survival can have a meaningful effect on certain outbreak features, including R0, and on the size of the infectious peak in the population. These results highlight the importance of properly understanding the mechanistic relationship between virulence and parasite survival, as the evolution of increased survival across different relationships with virulence may have considerably different epidemiological signatures. View Full-Text
Keywords: virulence; free-living survival; disease dynamics; evolution of infectious disease virulence; free-living survival; disease dynamics; evolution of infectious disease
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gomez, L.M.; Meszaros, V.A.; Turner, W.C.; Ogbunugafor, C.B. The Epidemiological Signature of Pathogen Populations That Vary in the Relationship between Free-Living Parasite Survival and Virulence. Viruses 2020, 12, 1055. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/v12091055

AMA Style

Gomez LM, Meszaros VA, Turner WC, Ogbunugafor CB. The Epidemiological Signature of Pathogen Populations That Vary in the Relationship between Free-Living Parasite Survival and Virulence. Viruses. 2020; 12(9):1055. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/v12091055

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gomez, Lourdes M., Victor A. Meszaros, Wendy C. Turner, and C. B. Ogbunugafor 2020. "The Epidemiological Signature of Pathogen Populations That Vary in the Relationship between Free-Living Parasite Survival and Virulence" Viruses 12, no. 9: 1055. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/v12091055

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