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The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China

Business School of Nanjing, Xiaozhuang University, Nanjing 211171, China
Department of Information Management, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33302, Taiwan
Clinical Trial Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 33305, Taiwan
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei City 24301, Taiwan
Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
Business School, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ştefan Cristian Gherghina
Sustainability 2021, 13(5), 2617;
Received: 27 January 2021 / Revised: 23 February 2021 / Accepted: 24 February 2021 / Published: 1 March 2021
With the help of the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model and the Bayesian dynamic conditional correlational autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (Bayesian DCC-GARCH) model, this study analyzes the interaction mechanism and dynamic correlation among financial leverage, house price, and consumer expenditure (the survey data are collected from China’s National Bureau of Statistics from January 2000 to December 2019; the data on financial leverage and consumer expenditure are from the Wind economic database, and the price of commercial housing was calculated based on the sales volume and area of commercial housing on the official website of China’s National Bureau of Statistics). Empirical results show that an increase in financial leverage significantly increases house prices and reduces consumer expenditure, that a rise in house prices inhibits financial leverage and weakens consumer expenditure, and that an increase in consumer expenditure raises financial leverage and stimulates a rise in house prices. In addition, house price and consumer expenditure are most relevant, followed by financial leverage and consumer expenditure, and then by financial leverage and house price. Therefore, systematic analysis of dynamic correlation among the three variables has important practical significance for formulating appropriate financial policies to stabilize house prices and promote the growth of consumer expenditures. Specially, financial leverage is an important factor to hold back soaring house prices and shrinking consumer expenditure. Therefore, monetary and macroprudential policies should be used to deal with financial leverage variables in order to achieve a balanced and sustainable development of the macroeconomy in China. View Full-Text
Keywords: financial leverage; house price; consumer expenditure financial leverage; house price; consumer expenditure
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MDPI and ACS Style

Dong, K.; Chang, C.-T.; Wang, S.; Liu, X. The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2617.

AMA Style

Dong K, Chang C-T, Wang S, Liu X. The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China. Sustainability. 2021; 13(5):2617.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Dong, Kai, Ching-Ter Chang, Shaonan Wang, and Xiaoxi Liu. 2021. "The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China" Sustainability 13, no. 5: 2617.

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