A Framework for Food Security via Resilient Agri-Food Supply Chains: The Case of UAE

Abstract

Food security (FS) is one of the most elusive and sought-after objectives worldwide. Securing a country’s self-sufficiency— in the current COVID-19 pandemic era, more than ever—has become a prioritized mission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, FS is adversely affected by, among others, the scarcity of freshwater, harsh environment, regional conflicts, and rising temperatures. Following the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, exporters placed export restrictions on key food crops, affecting FS in import dependent regions, such as the MENA countries and, more specifically, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This paper presented a conceptual framework on the key enablers for the UAE agri-food supply chains to obtain the necessary resiliency to achieve FS, through improving policy-making capacity. The proposed approach started with the assessment of the main vulnerabilities of the food system in a global context; from there, the factors that influence vulnerability were investigated, identifying the main global drivers that affect the local food systems, focusing on the UAE. The proposed framework was applied for the design and implementation of an early warning system concerning FS-related incidents.

1. Introduction

Food security (FS) is one of the most important issues worldwide, reflecting a country’s self-sufficiency and its citizens’ wellbeing [1]. FS in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is heavily affected by shrinking water resources, the harsh environment, and infertile land directly impacting the availability and stability of food [2]. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is ranked relatively less favorably with respect to food security (35th position), based on the 2021 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) score, among the indexed countries, as depicted in Figure 1 [3]. The index, however, does reflect prime indicators, such as natural resources and resilience, where the UAE is ranked 88th place, which makes the agri-food supply chains vulnerable to unforeseen disruptions. The population of the UAE is expected to reach 11.5 million in 2025, leading to an increased demand for food and water, which is reflected in the steady yearly increase in food imports [4]. The FS of import-dependent countries, such as the UAE, is prone to food supply chain disruptions, and social, economic, and/or political instabilities in supplying (exporting) countries. For example, the current Russia–Ukraine crisis adversely affects FS (particularly food availability) in the UAE and other GCC countries, since Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of cereals to these countries. The crisis is also affecting the global food prices, as IFPRI [5] noted that “repercussions from the invasion of Ukraine are creating significant additional pressures on price, [and] agricultural commodity prices are reaching levels close to those witnessed in 2007/08 and 2010/11”.

The UAE government is committed to supporting the development of the country’s agri-food production, at levels that ensure self-sufficiency and sustainability [6]. According to the 2018 report on UAE FS: “evidence-based and effectively developed policies can help the UAE mitigate the core challenges it faces, namely overcoming its climate, land, and water constraints”. FS analytical frameworks, which take the vulnerability and resilience of the UAE food systems into account, are required for conducting a comprehensive FS analysis, by estimating food insecurity prevalence rates, evaluating the impacts of policies/interventions on FS, analyzing the drivers/determinants of FS, and monitoring FS. Such analytical frameworks are the basis for the development of early warning tools that assist in making informed and better FS-related decisions. Several frameworks were proposed in the literature, including the two widely recognized frameworks: sustainable food systems [7,8,9] and food systems approach [10,11,12]. A sustainable food system is a system that aims at minimizing the environmental, social, and economic impacts of a food system, while ensuring a sustainable and healthy diet for all people [7,8,9]. The food systems framework contains six components [13]: food supply chains, food environments, individual factors, consumer behavior, external food system drivers, and food system outcomes (e.g., nutrition and health outcomes). A food system approach is based on a holistic and integrated assessment of the dynamics of, and interaction among, the production, processing, distribution, and consumption aspects of sustainable and healthy diets. Hence, this approach requires a system that accounts for the complexity of the food system, resulting from the multi-actor, multi-causality, and non-linearity of the system. The food system approach has also several components [10], including food system activities (e.g., food environment, food supply system, and consumer characteristics); socio-economic drivers (e.g., markets, policies, technology, and individual factors); environmental drivers (e.g., climate, land, water, and biodiversity); and food system outcomes (food security, socio-economic outcomes, and environmental outcomes). Analyses based on the food system approach aim at identifying leverage points within the food system, in order to achieve the environmental, social, and economic objectives of the food system [10,11,12,14].

Despite the presence of analytical frameworks in the literature, the Scientific Group for the United Nations Food Systems Summit [15] recently noted that the existing early warning systems lack suitable indicators to monitor the degradation of food systems. They further stated that ‘the world does not have a singular source of information to provide real-time assessments of people facing acute food insecurity with the geographic scale to cover any country of concern, the ability to update forecasts frequently and consistently in near real-time’. Recently, the Johns Hopkins University and The Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, in collaboration with several other institutions including FAO, launched a Food Systems Dashboard (https://foodsystemsdashboard.org/, accessed on 24 November 2021) for monitoring food systems worldwide [13]. Although the dashboard is accessible for the UAE, some of the indicators included in the dashboard for measuring the different components of the food systems (including FS) are not ‘valid’ indicators, and the existing data are also outdated (https://foodsystemsdashboard.org/countrydashboard, accessed on 24 November 2021). For example, in the dashboard, FAO’s prevalence of the undernourishment (POU) indicator is used for measuring FS in the UAE, which is a poor national level FS indicator [16,17]. Furthermore, unlike most countries in the dashboard, data on child anthropometry measures (stunting, wasting, underweight) are not available for the UAE, which are good indicators of the utilization dimension of FS.

Although there exist holistic analytical frameworks in the literature, such as the sustainable food systems [7,8,9] and the food systems approach [10,11,12], there is a lack of suitable analytical frameworks that can be applied for assessing the resilience and sustainability of the UAE’s food systems and FS. This is partly due to the fact that every food system is unique, and specificities apply to local contexts. On the other hand, previous studies in the literature focus on only a few aspects of a food system [18,19,20,21], and do not support taking the different aspects of food systems and FS into account. For example, Civero et al. [18] study consumers’ food purchasing decisions in relation to food safety and sustainability, and conclude that intrinsic attributes, such as food expiry, food traceability, transparency of food information, and seller confidence, are important factors in consumer purchasing decisions.

The objective of the present study was, therefore, to develop a conceptual framework that supports conducting comprehensive FS assessments based on the current situation, under short- and long-term policy development scenarios for the UAE. In order to achieve such a comprehensive analytical capacity, this study proposed an analytical framework with three classes of components: (1) big datasets, (2) methods and models, and (3) FS indicators. The classes relate to each other; data enter into the methods and models, where they are combined with FS drivers and policies to produce intermediate results in the variables that are required in order to compute the selected FS indicators [22,23,24,25,26,27]. The set of indicators and other results are collected in a dataset, from which they can be accessed and utilized in further analyses for enhancing the resilience of UAE’s food system. In recent years, the concept of resilience was extensively used in a variety of fields, but not always consistently or holistically. Food systems’ resilience is the capacity over time of a food system, and its units at multiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate, and accessible food to all, in the face of various, and even unforeseen, disturbances; it is complementary and essential to sustainability [28,29,30,31]. The overall objective of the proposed framework is to deliver a set of tools that enables the UAE food system to obtain resilient dynamism and consolidate FS for the UAE citizens, through improving policy-making capacity.

The current COVID-19 pandemic crisis increased FS awareness among farmers, agri-businesses, governments, and consumers. Its impact generated a ripple effect in the food supply chain, resulting in supply and demand mismatching in agri-food manufacturers. The entire agri-food sector—from top to bottom—felt the direct and indirect reverberations of the present state of affairs, and it is evident that governments must help stakeholders across the entire value chain to maintain food supply, and sustain FS for societies. On the other hand, there is increasing evidence regarding the relationship between unsustainable agri-food systems and the growing number of emerging infectious disease outbreaks threatening global health and economic stability [32]. This situation highlights the need to focus on measures that promote healthier dietary habits that are mindful of planetary boundaries, as an essential pillar of preventive measures towards future outbreaks [33]. The importance of achieving “Resilient Dynamism” is undisputable, since the provision of adequate, safe, healthy, and affordable food for the growing global population, without causing climate change, degrading water and land resources, and eroding biodiversity, is one of the greatest challenges that the world has ever faced [9]. The impact of synergies between FS, infectious diseases, biodiversity, and climate change were highlighted in the 16th edition of the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, where climate action failure, biodiversity loss, infectious diseases, and natural resource crisis are four of the top five global risks, in terms of impacts, for 2021 [34].

2. Emergence of Global Food Balance

Three principal emerging population groups across the world can be identified, based on characteristics associated with their current and projected stage of economic development. Fully developed, mature, post-industrial societies, such as those in Europe, are characterized by stable or declining populations, which are increasing in age. Late-stage developing nations that are currently industrializing rapidly, for example, China, will experience decelerating rates of population growth, coupled with increasing affluence and age profile. Newly developing countries that are beginning to industrialize, primarily in Africa, with high to very high population growth rates (typically doubling or tripling their populations by 2050) are characterized by a predominantly young age profile. Amidst these variations in population growth globally, each group of countries needs to address different issues surrounding food systems over the coming decades: food production, storage, and transportation, as well as consumer expectations. However, these groups are interconnected with each other, under the context of a globalized market, hence, forming a global food system. The global food system is currently on an unsustainable track, which poses a threat to long-term global FS. Global hunger has increased, and ensuring households have access to affordable, nutritious food will only become more difficult in the future as population, income, and dietary habits change [35]. Clean air, water, and productive land are essential for sustaining this expanding food production, but all these natural resources are under threat [36]. Beddington et al. [37] list the following main drivers underlying the challenge of ensuring FS:

• Global population growth, coupled with demographic change, increasing affluence, and urbanization, leads to growth in demand for food and changing patterns of demand—rising affluence is associated with increases in food consumption, especially of meat and dairy products;
• Global climate changes may lead to floods, heatwaves, and droughts, as well as to changes in the distribution and/or severity of pests and diseases (including moulds and zoonotic infections), with potentially severe impacts on food production and animal welfare;
• Environmental impacts of farming and food; negative impacts include increasing water and land use, soil erosion and degradation, and loss of biodiversity, as well as greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution;
• Key resources for agriculture are limited, notably land, fresh water, and energy, but also sources of other inputs, such as mineral phosphate (an essential plant nutrient).
• Social drivers including issues of land tenure, governance and international security, changing patterns of consumer needs, preferences, choices, tastes, habits, and practices affecting the demand for, and consumption of, different foods and patterns of waste;
• Economic drivers include issues of trade, land tenure, food markets and their volatility, supply and distribution, regulation, affordability, and accessibility (particularly in the developing world) with associated globalization.

The main factors that affect FS in the MENA region in general, and in the UAE in particular, are identified in the existing literature [2]. The most important factor is the arable land constraints; the UAE has limited arable land that can sustain crops. Despite technological advances, such as hydroponics that allow vegetable crops to grow without soil, there are still problems with arable crops that require thousands of hectares of land. In the UAE, the total land area suitable for irrigated agriculture represents only 6.81% of the country’s total land, with only 2.8% of this land available for cultivation [38]. This relatively small area demands large quantities of groundwater, with 67% to 93% of groundwater being utilized for agriculture in the UAE [39]. The country is also heavily dependent on desalinated water, with its needs continually increasing. Desalination is highly prevalent in the UAE, supplying approximately 99% of the country’s drinking and potable water needs [39]. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries represent 57% of global desalination capacity. Desalination comes at an ecological cost. It is an energy intensive process, resulting in greenhouse gases emissions and air pollution. A primary environmental concern is the handling of salt waste, or brine, as it is better known, which contains numerous chemicals and is much warmer than the average temperature of the Arabian Gulf. This wastewater can also be used for crop irrigation, but cultural and religious constraints make it less socially acceptable to use treated water for such purposes. This results in its use in forestry management and landscaping needs [40]. Population growth in the UAE, and improvement of living standards, are also creating an increased demand for higher quality and more variety of food. This led to increased expenditures for importing food, which in 2016 were more than USD 1.5 billion [2]; there is no sign that such demands will decrease in the future. Given the above-mentioned issues, the UAE is forced to import significant volumes of several types of foods. The UAE fulfils more than 80 per cent of its food requirements through imports. The country’s inability to produce the food items that its population need and want resulted in a strong dependence on external suppliers.

3. Design of Framework

The proposed framework serves as a basis for developing tools (e.g., early warning systems for monitoring the deterioration of food systems) that can be applied at policy levels to drive the UAE food system towards a stronger resilience and a higher degree of FS. The analytical framework allows for investigating FS “now” (early warning), in the short- and long term, under different policy scenarios. In order to achieve such a comprehensive analytical capacity, the proposed analytical framework integrates three classes of components: (1) big datasets, (2) methods and models, and (3) indicators. The classes relate to each other as outlined in Figure 2. Data enter into the selected methods and models, where they are combined with FS drivers and policies to produce intermediate results in the variables that are required to compute the selected FS indicators. Society is involved, and benefits from the framework’s results once the early warning system and scenarios are implemented at policy levels. Society is foreseen to play an active role in the framework, via the stakeholder platform, and this approach serves many purposes. First, it is a measure to include the voice and reactions of society as an input to the analytical framework; second, it is a new way of bringing society to science—in contrast to the traditional approach of science coming to society. The three classes of components of the framework are described below in detail.

3.1. Food Security Indicators

A variety of indicators were proposed and applied in the literature to measure FS. Figure 3 depicts some of the most commonly used indicators in the literature, based on a systematic literature review of 78 articles on FS indicators [17], each assessing different dimensions and components of FS at different levels (national, household, individual). About 22% of the reviewed articles apply the household undernourishment indicator, which is the most frequently used indicator as a sole measure of FS (depicted by the bigger circle in Figure 3). On the other hand, GFSI, which is a composite indicator measuring FS at a national level, is applied by only one study. Since there is no single ‘best’ FS indicator that is agreed and accepted by the scientific community and practitioners for measuring, analyzing, and monitoring FS [41,42], a comprehensive FS analysis at different levels (analyses of food insecurity prevalence, food security drivers, trends, early warning) requires employing a set of complementary indicators. Identification of these complementary indicators, that are suitable to the UAE context, is therefore critical in designing and implementing the analytical framework.

Which food security indicator should be used for the UAE? Besides the insights from the literature review [17], expert knowledge elicitation, in the form of focus group discussion, were used to select the final list of complementary FS indicators. For measuring and analyzing FS in the UAE, we suggest the following points related to FS indicators as part of the framework [17]:

• FS should be measured at an individual (or at least at household) level, by applying a set of complementary indicators to capture the availability, access, and utilization dimensions of FS. Combining anthropometry measures with other objective FS indicators (e.g., calorie and nutrient adequacy measures or dietary diversity indicators) allows capturing these three FS dimensions. The behavioral/psychological aspects of FS, and the cultural acceptability component of FS, can be measured by using one of the subjective (experience-based) measures. For example, FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) can be applied to estimate the prevalence and severity of food insecurity at an individual level, although it does not measure child FS. As FIES was applied in more than 100 countries, it allows the UAE to compare its FS state with other countries. The Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM), instead of FIES, could also be used, as it measures both adult and child FS;
• The stability dimension of FS can be captured by producing the estimates of the complementary FS indicators over time (seasons), or in real-time. To that end, a repeated high-frequency FS measurement (if possible by using near real-time data) is preferable. A repeated (real-time) measure also helps to identify the onset of food insecurity in time, evaluate interventions, and monitor FS progresses;
• Integrating food consumption (intake, expenditure, diet diversity) and anthropometry information in the UAE’s household living standard surveys enables the collection of complete and consistent data to make a comprehensive FS analysis.

3.2. Methods and Models

The monitoring and evaluation of the status in food and nutrition security, as well as the planning of strategies towards improving the food and nutrition security, depends on: (a) the collection and availability of information on the actual status, (b) the processing of information for evaluation and planning purposes, and (c) the communication of results towards decision makers involved in evaluation and planning activities. All these three aspects are captured in our proposed conceptual framework (Figure 2) through the three components: (a) big datasets, (b) models and indicators, and (c) interaction platforms.

In an organized system approach, all three initiatives depend on the utilization of models of various kinds. While one might primarily have mathematical models in mind, the systems approach involves not only mathematical models, such as statistical or optimization models (e.g., the CAPRI model [43] and sustainable supply chain model [44]), but also rule-based models, such as evidential reasoning approaches that may or may not be integrated in computer-based system developments; organizational models such as environmental scanning routines; and communication models or routines, as well as models describing the structure of the food system (value chain models, distribution models, internet-trade, etc.). However, our framework assessed these classical modelling approaches, as well as datasets of volume, variety, variants, and velocity in the food supply chain that could be used for dealing with food and nutrition security.

Most of the existing models and datasets were created for only dealing with specific issues, and do not provide the comprehensive picture required for an analysis, evaluation, or decision activity in food and nutrition security. In contrast to this, our proposed framework provides a generalized analysis and decision support framework, which integrates different models and databases with proven quality through an evidence-based reasoning approach. The framework also considers gaps where additional data collection and modelling activities need to be identified for reaching a comprehensive view necessary for suitable policy decision activities. Case studies are defined for dealing with the gaps of insufficient information, and the case study results tested by a panel of experts or a stakeholder group. The decision support framework is tested regarding its suitability for capturing various future scenarios, and the influence of the most relevant drivers of change in different regions, for selected product groups (e.g., commodities), and for communicating with the major stakeholders dealing with food and nutrition security. For communicating the results of the framework, the project specifies an appropriate interface between the modelling framework and decision-making stakeholders (stakeholders platform) that specifies an organizational utilization routine supported by computer-based communication means, as described below in Section 3.4. The development and testing of framework and communication interface build on the organization and utilization of two communication platforms, one dealing with experts in the field and one with stakeholders of relevance.

In order to make the food system more resilient, it is first necessary to understand its vulnerabilities. Hence, developing, testing, and validating a vulnerability assessment tool, which helps users identify and evaluate vulnerabilities in the food system is required. The literature on vulnerability and risk across supply networks developed considerably over the last decade, and some authors conducted comprehensive reviews of the extant literature, most notably Craighead et al. [28], and Klibi et al. [45]. With the development of the literature, a number of concepts emerged that refer to risk and how organizations respond to risk. The concepts of vulnerability and resilience are of particular relevance to food systems and that of FS. Vulnerabilities are “the properties of a system… that may weaken or limit its ability to endure threats and survive accidental events that originate both within and outside the system boundaries” [6] (p. 18). On the other hand, resilience, which is often seen as the opposite of vulnerability, is defined as “the ability of a system to return to its original state or move to a new, more desirable state after being disturbed” [24] (p. 2).

Industries dealing with safety-critical products, such as aerospace and automotive, as well as those dealing with hazardous processes, such as nuclear and chemical, have long been concerned with vulnerabilities in their systems. These concerns have led to the development of tools and techniques such as fault tree analysis (FTA) [22,46,47], reliability engineering [48,49], and failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) [50]. In the food industry, there is extensive use of the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP), which is based on FMEA, and is commonly used to assess food safety risks. However, these tools focus on specific safety issues, rather than taking a wider systemic perspective of the factors affecting FS. Nevertheless, the concepts of vulnerability and resilience were also recently introduced in FS measurement and analysis. Rather than directly measuring FS or food insecurity, studies seek to measure vulnerability to food insecurity and FS resilience, and their respective determinants/drivers. For example, Islam and Mamun [51], Ibok et al. [52], Sileshi et al. [53], Bashir et al. [54], and Bogale [55] employ the concepts of vulnerability in their FS measurement and analysis studies, whereas Lascano Galarza [56], Vaitla et al. [57], Smith and Frankenberger [58], and Upton et al. [59] apply the concept of resilience. To identify appropriate tools for measuring and analyzing the vulnerability and resilience of food systems, the framework follows a systematic literature review method, as described by Tranfield et al. [60], which includes the stages of planning, conducting, and reporting/disseminating the review.

3.3. Big Datasets

The framework combines the application of traditional databases and data collection methods (surveys and interviews) with big data processing technologies to collect and analyze data generated at various points of the food supply chain, from farm to fork (Figure 2). In the emerging era of big data, these datasets are considered as modern agricultural commodities that have wide scope to be leveraged into actionable information, by employing domain-specific approaches and analytics.

Big data is becoming more readily available, and the developed framework enables experts, from industry and international platforms, and policymakers to develop and test enhanced solutions/tools, which could lead to long-term commercial, environmental, and societal benefits. The proposed framework can be set on free open-source software that has a very high statistical computing power, for food systems data mining, UAE country-wide food requirements, data clustering, and sentiment analysis. The framework ultimately aims at mitigating uncertainties, risks, and shocks in connection to the main actors of the UAE food system (farms and food industry enterprises, at a macro-level through a stakeholders platform), as well as in connection with the society (at a micro-level through a social interaction platform), as described below in Section 3.4. Furthermore, policy recommendations indicate long-term structural actions directed to the reinforcement of the linkages between FS and the sustainability of the UAE food system. The recommendations focus on the competitiveness of the agri-food sector, as well as the knowledge and innovation transfer aspects of sustainability, and the climate-resilience economy in the agri-food sector. Therefore, the framework builds on a sophisticated bilingual (English–Arabic) web-based platform that integrates big datasets, links up with various tools, guides stakeholders in the application of the modelling framework, and supports the evidence-based reasoning approach.

3.4. Communication Platform for Evidence-Based Reasoning Support

The framework builds on a sophisticated multi-lingual web-based platform that integrates big datasets, links up with various tools, guides stakeholders in the application of the modelling framework, and supports the evidence-based reasoning approach (Figure 2). The platform provides a simple interface (based on content management systems) that provides information for the general public (dissemination), a professional software environment for utilization of the framework, and the evidence-based reasoning approach used by stakeholders and policy. The integration of survey tools supports monitoring activities. Individualized access control allows focused access by different groups, and supports platform utilization beyond the duration of the project. The platform is developed out of a prototype application with a similar delivery concept but a different focus (www.salsaplatform.eu, accessed on 15 March 2022). This approach assures the feasibility of the concept, and the design and development of a platform that is prepared to serve the communication needs of the project and its stakeholders. The expert platform brings together, within the project, experts from various specific fields related to the utilization of data, and models with a focus on food and nutrition security. Domain-specific experts evaluate data and models for suitability in an appropriate framework and, together as a multi-disciplinary group, agree on a suitable integration of data and models in an evidence-based reasoning approach. Furthermore, the expert platform includes experts and researchers connected to the project, on occasional grounds, for bringing in specific knowledge, as well as for linking science with industry, policy, and society. The heterogeneous group of experts is regarded as an added value, as it supports knowledge exchange between different research fields. The stakeholder platform brings together major stakeholders from policy and other groups (such as FAO or NGOs), as well as other stakeholders such as company representatives, researchers, fisheries organizations, farmers’ associations, and major food clusters and networks with stakes in food security.

Bringing together the mentioned stakeholder groups with researchers and experts facilitates knowledge exchange. As the stakeholder platform brings together experts with highly versatile backgrounds, it is crucial for co-creation and validation of the application of the analytical framework, as the stakeholder group is envisaged to bring different opinions and ideas to the table. The platform provides the means for discussing the integration of the framework into regular monitoring and decision-making routines, and the suitability of the communication interface built around the framework for communication with stakeholders.

3.5. Scenarios—Looking into Potential Futures

There are many factors, trends, pressures, and developments that affect food systems’ sustainability; that is, the sector’s capability towards assuring the provision of food that is safe, readily available, affordable, and of the quality and diversity consumers expect [25]. Therefore, any discussions on initiatives require a delineation of focused scenarios. The focus captures a variety of occurrences in a condensed view, which describes a certain development direction. This approach is derived from approaches in strategic management, and reduces the complexity of a situation into a principal view. In Wilkinson’s definition of scenarios in the ESF/Cost Forward Look study [61], the keyword is ‘alternative futures’; this distinguishes scenarios from forecasts that describe a most probable future. However, they are still based on an analysis of different developments as outlined in preceding chapters and are, as such, more definite than pure speculations. Forecasts, scenarios, and speculations are linked to differences in complexities and uncertainties. Forecasts fit situations with relatively low complexity and limited uncertainty. Increases in complexity and uncertainty favor the scenario approach and, eventually, speculations. With a timespan between 10 and 20 years, the reliance on forecasts is critical while there is still enough knowledge on the developments and issues that allow the formulation of a limited number of alternative futures, i.e., to utilize the scenario approach. There are a great number of scenario studies available, including those from SCAR and the COST initiative. However, the identification of scenarios is subject to a dynamic change in views.

The proposed framework evaluates scenarios according to the interests of stakeholders and the society—though the respective stakeholder platforms that are part of the framework (Figure 2)—and identifies enterprise actions or policy initiatives that support the best adaption or support the move towards preferred “futures”. This is achieved by dynamic interaction with stakeholders from the industry, policymakers, and consumer associations, as well as with society directly, and with the support of subcontracted experts in scenario research, through targeted workshops aiming at creating, validating, and testing the scenarios. By engaging with society, valuable input about consumer reactions brings “society to science”, underlining the innovative approach for scenario development.

3.6. Practical Implications and Food Security Policy Recommendations

The proposed conceptual framework is applied in several case studies and empirical applications. Several recommendations and implications stream from the framework’s implementation and its specific actions, such as the case studies, workshops, focus groups, and Delphi rounds with stakeholders and policymakers (mirror group). The implications and suggestion tackle the future problems of the UAE food system security, considering the complex and interconnected effects of the global drivers listed in the Global Food Security Strategic Plan 2011–2016, and in many other contributions such as EU’s Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR), the FAO Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis models I and II (RIMA I, RIMA II), and the Global Food Security Index [3], but also the more policy-related documents, such as the European Commission contingency plan for ensuring food supply and FS in times of crisis (2021).

The policy recommendations for a more resilient UAE food system contribute to defining specific actions coherent with the objectives of the UAE National Food Strategy 2051 Vision. The policy recommendations consider, in particular, the global drivers related to supply and demand factors, and the resource constraints that influences short-term and long-term FS in the UAE. Those policies aim at mitigation of uncertainties, risks, and shocks that influence the revenue and investment plans of the main actors of the UAE food system, in particular for the agriculture and food industry enterprises and SMEs. The research framework and implementation activities also contribute to strengthening the resilience and cohesion of the UAE social system. The short-term policies are finalized with the creation of an early warning system, based on several indicators specific for each food chain, and analyzed by autoregressive models, whose contribution could be relevant to better define new market measures in the future. The main goals of the policy recommendation proposed via this framework are the prevention of shocks of prices and resources, and the adoption of anti-cyclical sectorial plans, to make the UAE food system more secure and resilient.

In particular, we consider stocks creation and transparent management, supply concentration, and producers’ active role. Moreover, another objective is to achieve a better knowledge of the price transmission mechanism of the main food chains, for better design of the market policies as developed by UAE. Furthermore, policy recommendations for the short-term are included in a general framework of policies that suggest long-term structural actions directed to the reinforcement of the linkages between FS and the sustainability of the UAE food system. The recommendations have a strong focus on the competitiveness of the agri-food sector, on the knowledge and innovation transfer, and the climate-resilience economy in the agriculture sector. The policy recommendations include analysis and suggestions about instruments of insurance of producers’ income and production against economic losses, and about financial tools (as mutual funds) used to mitigate global drivers, negative impacts on producers’ income enterprises, and food chains. These measures contribute to the new UAE rural development policies, with actions related to the growing volatility of international commodities prices and global food markets, and their influences on vulnerabilities of the main food chains analyzed in the project. While analyzing the effects of price volatility, we focus on its influence on enterprises revenues, in terms of turnover and production costs, but also on the structural changes of enterprises dimension (SMEs), of labor market organization and job creation, and on smart specialization in terms of production, and at regional/country level. The policy recommendations also include the impact analysis of the global drivers which influence the processed global food market, because of the greater importance those products assume on global trade.

Finally, the vulnerabilities of the UAE food system require policy suggestions concerning the role of stocks and their management. FS and social stability are strongly influenced by the grain stock management, as seen during the “Arab Spring” revolts. The stocks are strictly linked to the UAE and international FS and vulnerability, and the policies must introduce actions to mitigate the risks and uncertainty about FS in UAE and the neighboring states (MENA region). In terms of future research, the study can be extended to similar Arab countries across the Middle East, identified in Figure 1, where the framework can be applied based on each country characteristics. The study can also be emulated in global settings of countries with similar characteristics.

4. Conclusions

This paper presented a conceptual framework on the key enablers for the UAE agri-food supply chains to obtain the necessary resiliency to achieve FS, through improving policy-making capacity. The proposed approach started with the assessment of the main vulnerabilities of the food system in a global context; from there, the main global drivers that affect the local food systems, focusing on the UAE, were identified. The proposed framework integrates three components (big datasets, methods and models, and FS indicators), and is applied for the design and implementation of an early warning system concerning FS-related incidents. In order to promote stability in UAE and the neighboring states, to contribute to social cohesion and to find a common way to assure food security and sustainability of the UAE food system, the framework considers not only the UAE’s food systems, but also the neighboring state’s food systems, both in the short- and the long-term.