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Article

Using the InVEST Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Upstream Regions of the Shule River Basin

1
Cryosphere and Eco-Environment Research Station of Shule River Headwaters, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
School of Geographical Sciences, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
4
Long-Term National Scientific Research Base of the Qilian Mountain National Park, Xining 810000, China
5
State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agroecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Junye Wang and Narayan Kumar Shrestha
Received: 31 March 2021 / Revised: 23 April 2021 / Accepted: 27 April 2021 / Published: 29 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Watershed Management Modeling)
Water yield is a key ecosystem function index, directly impacting the sustainable development of the basin economy and ecosystem. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes are the main driving factors affecting water yield. In the context of global climate change, assessing the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water yield in the alpine regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is essential for formulating rational management and development strategies for water resources. On the basis of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and the impacts of LULC and climate changes on water yield from 2001 to 2019 in the upstream regions of the Shule River Basin (USRB) on the northeastern margin of the QTP. Three scenarios were designed in the InVEST model to clearly analyze the contributions of climate and LULC changes on the variation of water yield. The first scenario integrated climate and LULC change into the model according to the actual conditions. The second scenario was simulation without LULC change, and the third scenario was without climate change. The results showed that (1) the InVEST model had a good performance in estimating water yield (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.986; root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.012, p < 0.05); (2) the water yield significantly increased in the temporal scale from 2001 to 2019, especially in the high altitude of the marginal regions (accounting for 32.01%), while the northwest regions significantly decreased and accounted for only 8.39% (p < 0.05); (3) the spatial distribution of water yield increased from the middle low-altitude regions to the marginal high-altitude regions; and (4) through the analysis of the three scenarios, the impact of climate change on water yield was 90.56%, while that of LULC change was only 9.44%. This study reveals that climate warming has a positive impact on water yield, which will provide valuable references for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in the Shule River Basin. View Full-Text
Keywords: Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; InVEST model; climate change; land use change; water yield Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; InVEST model; climate change; land use change; water yield
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wei, P.; Chen, S.; Wu, M.; Deng, Y.; Xu, H.; Jia, Y.; Liu, F. Using the InVEST Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Upstream Regions of the Shule River Basin. Water 2021, 13, 1250. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13091250

AMA Style

Wei P, Chen S, Wu M, Deng Y, Xu H, Jia Y, Liu F. Using the InVEST Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Upstream Regions of the Shule River Basin. Water. 2021; 13(9):1250. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13091250

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wei, Peijie, Shengyun Chen, Minghui Wu, Yanfang Deng, Haojie Xu, Yinglan Jia, and Fang Liu. 2021. "Using the InVEST Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Upstream Regions of the Shule River Basin" Water 13, no. 9: 1250. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/w13091250

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