Next Article in Journal
Comparison of the Sub-Tour Elimination Methods for the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem Applying the SECA Method
Next Article in Special Issue
On Λ-Fractional Viscoelastic Models
Previous Article in Journal
A Three-Phase Fundamental Diagram from Three-Dimensional Traffic Data
Previous Article in Special Issue
On the Asymptotic Behavior of a Class of Second-Order Non-Linear Neutral Differential Equations with Multiple Delays
Article

Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

1
Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation (LAMS), Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Sidi Othman, P.B. 7955 Casablanca, Morocco
2
Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 3 December 2020 / Revised: 25 January 2021 / Accepted: 25 January 2021 / Published: 7 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Axioms on Advanced Differential Equations for Mathematical Modeling)
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; coronaviruses; mathematical modeling; delayed stochastic differential equations (DSDEs) COVID-19; coronaviruses; mathematical modeling; delayed stochastic differential equations (DSDEs)
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Mahrouf, M.; Boukhouima, A.; Zine, H.; Lotfi, E.M.; Torres, D.F.M.; Yousfi, N. Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations. Axioms 2021, 10, 18. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/axioms10010018

AMA Style

Mahrouf M, Boukhouima A, Zine H, Lotfi EM, Torres DFM, Yousfi N. Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations. Axioms. 2021; 10(1):18. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/axioms10010018

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mahrouf, Marouane, Adnane Boukhouima, Houssine Zine, El M. Lotfi, Delfim F.M. Torres, and Noura Yousfi. 2021. "Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations" Axioms 10, no. 1: 18. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/axioms10010018

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop