Mapping the Potential Distribution of Ticks in the Western Kanto Region, Japan: Predictions Based on Land-Use, Climate, and Wildlife
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Tick Survey
2.3. Land-Use Factors
2.4. Climatic Factors
2.5. Wildlife Factors
2.6. Tick Species Selection
2.7. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Modeling
3. Results
3.1. Tick Survey
3.2. MaxEnt Models
- A. testudinariumThe model performance for A. testudinarium was adequate (AUC = 7.00). The predicted distribution in Figure 3A indicated that suitable environments are spreading in the southwestern part of our study area, and a relatively lower suitability is shown at the base of the western mountainous area and in Tochigi Prefecture. The most important determinants of the A. testudinarium distribution were bamboo forest areas, forest connectivity, deciduous needle-leaf forest areas, snow depth, and wild boar distribution (Table 2). Collectively, the contribution of these variables to the model was 83.2%. The highest permutation importance was shown in the forest connectivity (PI = 46.3). Positive responses were observed for bamboo forest areas, forest connectivity, and wild boar distribution, while deciduous needle-leaf forest area and snow depth responded negatively for the habitat suitability of A. testudinarium (Figure 4).
- H. flavaThe model performance for H. flava was good (AUC = 0.84). Haemaphysalis flava has widespread suitable habitats in western Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture (Figure 3B). The most important variables for H. flava were forest connectivity, raccoon distribution, annual precipitation, evergreen needle-leaf forest areas, and deciduous broad-leaf areas. The tick distribution was positively influenced by forest continuity and raccoon distribution, and negatively influenced by evergreen needle-leaf forest areas and elevation. The response to annual precipitation was initially positive and then negative, which indicates that the habitat suitability increased with moderate precipitation (Figure 4). The cumulative contribution of these variables to the model was 73.2% (Table 2). The highest permutation importance was shown in forest connectivity (PI = 39.3).
- H. kitaokaiThe model performance for H. kitaokai was good (AUC = 0.88). Haemaphysalis kitaokai was predicted to be distributed in the mountainous areas of Tokyo metropolis, Kanagawa Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, and Yamanashi Prefecture (Figure 3C). The most important variables for H. kitaokai were forest connectivity, evergreen needle-leaf forest areas, sika deer distribution, annual precipitation, and raccoon distribution. The highest permutation importance was shown in evergreen needle-leaf forest areas (PI = 21.8). The cumulative contribution of these variables was 86.7%. A negative response was only observed for evergreen needle-leaf forest areas, and the permutation impact for the model was the largest among the variables (PI = 21.8) (Table 2). Positive responses were observed for the other four variables. The cumulative contribution of these variables to the model was 73.4% (Figure 4).
- H. longicornisThe model performance for H. longicornis was adequate (AUC = 0.79). The predicted distribution of H. longicornis was similar to that of H. flava but was skewed toward mountainous areas (Figure 3D). The most important variables for H. longicornis were forest connectivity, deciduous broad-leaf forest areas, raccoon distribution, annual precipitation, and rice paddy field areas. These variables showed a cumulative contribution of 79.9%. The highest permutation importance was shown in forest connectivity (PI = 49.3). Forest connectivity had the highest permutation importance to the model (PI = 49.3) (Table 2). Positive responses were observed for forest connectivity and raccoon distribution. Negative responses were observed for rice paddy field areas, and the response to annual precipitation was initially positive and then peaked between 1500 mm and 2000 mm (Figure 4).
- H. megaspinosaThe model performance for H. megaspinosa was good (AUC = 0.83). The predicted distribution of H. megaspinosa was similar to the prediction for H. longicornis, but the suitable environment for H. megaspinosa included more mountainous areas (Figure 3E). The most important variables for H. megaspinosa were forest connectivity, evergreen needle-leaf forest areas, annual precipitation, deciduous broad-leaf forest areas, and raccoon distribution. The highest permutation importance for the model was forest connectivity (PI = 29.5) (Table 2). Forest connectivity, deciduous broad-leaf forest areas, and raccoon distribution showed positive responses. The response to annual precipitation was initially positive and then peaked between 1500 mm and 2000 mm. A negative response was observed for evergreen needle-leaf forest areas. The highest permutation importance was shown in forest connectivity (PI = 29.5), and the cumulative contribution of these variables was 82.1% (Table 2).
- I. ovatusThe model performance for I. ovatus was excellent (AUC = 0.91). The relatively low suitability for I. ovatus was shown in the western Tokyo metropolis, western Saitama Prefecture, and southwestern Gunma Prefecture, while high suitability was shown in Miura Peninsula and Kanagawa Prefecture (Figure 3F). The most important variables for I. ovatus were forest connectivity, mean temperature in February, raccoon distribution, evergreen needle-leaf forest areas, and elevation. Forest connectivity had the highest permutation importance among the variables (PI = 45.7), and the cumulative contribution of these variables was 84.0% (Table 2). Positive responses were observed for raccoon distribution and elevation. A negative response was obtained for mean temperature in February up until 5 °C, and rapid positive responses were observed between 5 °C and 10 °C. Forest connectivity between 6 km2 and 15 km2 showed peaks in the log output (Figure 4). The contribution of these variables was 84.0% for the model of suitable environments for I. ovatus (Table 2).
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Code | Variable | Data Type | Unit | Range |
---|---|---|---|---|
UR | Urban area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
RP | Rice paddy area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
CL | Cropland area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
AL | Agricultural land area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
GL | Grassland area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
DBLF | Deciduous broadleaf forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
DNLF | Deciduous needleleaf forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
EBLF | Evergreen broadleaf forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
ENLF | Evergreen needleleaf forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
BF | Bamboo forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
FA | Forest area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
BL | Bare land area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
SP | Solar panel area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
WA | Water area | Area-Continuous | km2 | 0.0–1.0 |
FC | Forest connectivity | Area-Continuous | km2 | −1.0–12.7 |
FM | Mean temperature in February | Temperature-Continuous | °C | −20.0–10.0 |
AM | Mean temperature in August | Temperature-Continuous | °C | 10.0–30.0 |
YP | Annual precipitation | Precipitation-Continuous | mm | 0–40,000 |
JP | Rain season (June) precipitation | Precipitation-Continuous | mm | 0–40,000 |
SNOW | Snow depth | Depth-Continuous | mm | 0–60 |
EL | Elevation | Height-Continuous | m | 0–3776 |
WL1 | Sika deer distribution | Present/Absent-Categorical | present (1)/absent (0) | 0/1 |
WL2 | Wild boar distribution | Present/Absent-Categorical | present (1)/absent (0) | 0/1 |
WL3 | Raccoon distribution | Present/Absent-Categorical | present (1)/absent (0) | 0/1 |
WL4 | Raccoon dog distribution | Present/Absent-Categorical | present (1)/absent (0) | 0/1 |
WL5 | Masked palm civet distribution | Present/Absent-Categorical | present (1)/absent (0) | 0/1 |
A. testudinarium | H. flava | H. kitaokai | H. longicornis | H. megaspinosa | I. ovatus | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC = 0.70 | AUC = 0.84 | AUC = 0.88 | AUC = 0.79 | AUC = 0.83 | AUC = 0.91 | ||||||||||||
SD = 0.15 | SD = 0.03 | SD = 0.04 | SD = 0.06 | SD = 0.06 | SD = 0.03 | ||||||||||||
Threshold = 0.37 | Threshold = 0.26 | Threshold = 0.37 | Threshold = 0.32 | Threshold = 0.30 | Threshold = 0.36 | ||||||||||||
Variable | %Cont | PI | Variable | %Cont | PI | Variable | %Cont | PI | Variable | %Cont | PI | Variable | %Cont | PI | Variable | %Cont | PI |
BF | 37.6 | 2.1 | FC | 27.6 | 39.3 | FC | 48.4 | 17.9 | FC | 31.0 | 49.3 | FC | 40.2 | 29.5 | FC | 50.7 | 45.7 |
FC | 12.7 | 46.3 | WL3 | 15.2 | 7.7 | ENLF | 17.3 | 21.8 | DBLF | 14.8 | 10.3 | ENLF | 16.0 | 16.8 | FM | 11.2 | 2.9 |
DNLF | 12.1 | 1.2 | YP | 14.1 | 14.0 | WL1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | WL3 | 12.8 | 9.8 | YP | 10.0 | 4.9 | WL3 | 10.3 | 11.1 |
SNOW | 10.5 | 25.3 | ENLF | 9.9 | 2.5 | YP | 7.2 | 4.5 | YP | 11.4 | 4.6 | DBLF | 8.2 | 9.2 | ENLF | 8.3 | 2.4 |
WL2 | 10.3 | 2.0 | DBLF | 7.8 | 5.6 | WL3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | RP | 9.9 | 1.0 | WL3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | EL | 3.5 | 9.6 |
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Doi, K.; Kato, T.; Tabata, I.; Hayama, S.-i. Mapping the Potential Distribution of Ticks in the Western Kanto Region, Japan: Predictions Based on Land-Use, Climate, and Wildlife. Insects 2021, 12, 1095. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/insects12121095
Doi K, Kato T, Tabata I, Hayama S-i. Mapping the Potential Distribution of Ticks in the Western Kanto Region, Japan: Predictions Based on Land-Use, Climate, and Wildlife. Insects. 2021; 12(12):1095. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/insects12121095
Chicago/Turabian StyleDoi, Kandai, Takuya Kato, Iori Tabata, and Shin-ichi Hayama. 2021. "Mapping the Potential Distribution of Ticks in the Western Kanto Region, Japan: Predictions Based on Land-Use, Climate, and Wildlife" Insects 12, no. 12: 1095. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/insects12121095