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Article

Modeling of Vaccination and Contact Tracing as Tools to Control the COVID-19 Outbreak in Spain

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Department of Mathematics, ETSEA, University of Lleida, E-25198 Lleida, Spain
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Department of Game Resources and Wildlife Management, Institute for Game and Wildlife Research, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), E-13005 Ciudad Real, Spain
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Primary Health Center, Passeig Sant Joan, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
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Public Health Department Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, 08036 Barcelona, Spain
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Department of Animal Science, ETSEA, University of Lleida, 25198 Lleida, Spain
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Department of Animal Science, Agrotecnio, University of Lleida, 25198 Lleida, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ralph A. Tripp
Received: 5 March 2021 / Revised: 8 April 2021 / Accepted: 9 April 2021 / Published: 14 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Section COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination)
We developed an agent-based stochastic model, based on P Systems methodology, to decipher the effects of vaccination and contact tracing on the control of COVID-19 outbreak at population level under different control measures (social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene) and epidemiological scenarios. Our findings suggest that without the application of protection social measures, 56.1% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0.4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination by the end of the summer of 2021, it would be expected that 45% of the population would contract the disease and 0.3% of the population would die. However, both of these percentages are significantly lower when social measures were adopted, being the best results when social measures are in place and 40% of contacts traced. Our model shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social control measures, the percentage of people who die or recover from infection would fall from 0.41% and 56.1% to 0.16% and 33.5%, respectively compared with an unvaccinated population. When social control measures were applied in concert with vaccination the percentage of people who die or recover from infection diminishes until 0.10% and 14.5%, after vaccinating 40% of the population. Vaccination alone can be crucial in controlling this disease, but it is necessary to vaccinate a significant part of the population and to back this up with social control measures. View Full-Text
Keywords: control measures; vaccination; population dynamic P system; Spain control measures; vaccination; population dynamic P system; Spain
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MDPI and ACS Style

Colomer, M.À.; Margalida, A.; Alòs, F.; Oliva-Vidal, P.; Vilella, A.; Fraile, L. Modeling of Vaccination and Contact Tracing as Tools to Control the COVID-19 Outbreak in Spain. Vaccines 2021, 9, 386. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040386

AMA Style

Colomer MÀ, Margalida A, Alòs F, Oliva-Vidal P, Vilella A, Fraile L. Modeling of Vaccination and Contact Tracing as Tools to Control the COVID-19 Outbreak in Spain. Vaccines. 2021; 9(4):386. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040386

Chicago/Turabian Style

Colomer, Mª À., Antoni Margalida, Francesc Alòs, Pilar Oliva-Vidal, Anna Vilella, and Lorenzo Fraile. 2021. "Modeling of Vaccination and Contact Tracing as Tools to Control the COVID-19 Outbreak in Spain" Vaccines 9, no. 4: 386. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040386

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