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Article

COVID-19 Vaccination Scenarios: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Turkey

1
Department of Health Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen (RUG), 9713 AV Groningen, The Netherlands
2
Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06230, Turkey
3
Department of Actuarial Sciences, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06800, Turkey
4
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Marmara University, Istanbul 34854, Turkey
5
Department of Economics, Econometrics & Finance, Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Groningen, 9747 AE Groningen, The Netherlands
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Pharmaceutical Care Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, Marmara University, Istanbul 34854, Turkey
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Center of Excellence in Higher Education for Pharmaceutical Care Innovation, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
8
Department of Pharmacology & Therapy, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya 60115, Indonesia
9
Department of Pharmacy Management, Faculty of Pharmacy, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06230, Turkey
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Both authors contributed equally to the supervision of this work.
Academic Editor: Ralph A. Tripp
Received: 25 March 2021 / Revised: 13 April 2021 / Accepted: 13 April 2021 / Published: 18 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Health Economics of Vaccines 2.0)
As of March 2021, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 2.7 million people worldwide. Vaccination has started in most countries around the world. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 vaccination for Turkey compared to a baseline in the absence of vaccination and imposed measures by using an enhanced SIRD (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered, Death) model and various scenarios for the first year after vaccination. The results showed that vaccination is cost-effective from a health care perspective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 511 USD/QALY and 1045 USD/QALY if vaccine effectiveness on transmission is equal or reduced to only 50% of effectiveness on disease, respectively, at the 90% baseline effectiveness of the vaccine. From a societal perspective, cost savings were estimated for both scenarios. Other results further showed that the minimum required vaccine uptake to be cost-effective would be at least 30%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses, as well as the iso-ICER curves, showed that the results were quite robust and that major changes in cost-effectiveness outcomes cannot be expected. We can conclude that COVID-19 vaccination in Turkey is highly cost-effective or even cost-saving. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; cost-effectiveness; vaccination; Turkey; dynamic modeling COVID-19; cost-effectiveness; vaccination; Turkey; dynamic modeling
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MDPI and ACS Style

Hagens, A.; İnkaya, A.Ç.; Yildirak, K.; Sancar, M.; van der Schans, J.; Acar Sancar, A.; Ünal, S.; Postma, M.; Yeğenoğlu, S. COVID-19 Vaccination Scenarios: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Turkey. Vaccines 2021, 9, 399. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040399

AMA Style

Hagens A, İnkaya AÇ, Yildirak K, Sancar M, van der Schans J, Acar Sancar A, Ünal S, Postma M, Yeğenoğlu S. COVID-19 Vaccination Scenarios: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Turkey. Vaccines. 2021; 9(4):399. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040399

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hagens, Arnold, Ahmet Ç. İnkaya, Kasirga Yildirak, Mesut Sancar, Jurjen van der Schans, Aylin Acar Sancar, Serhat Ünal, Maarten Postma, and Selen Yeğenoğlu. 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccination Scenarios: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Turkey" Vaccines 9, no. 4: 399. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/vaccines9040399

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