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Article

Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic

1
Center for Biomedical Innovation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
2
Department of Biology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 November 2020 / Revised: 30 December 2020 / Accepted: 11 January 2021 / Published: 13 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Systemic Thinking in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis)
SARS-CoV-2, with an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 1%, has spread to all corners of the globe and infected millions of people. While vaccination is essential to protect against the virus and halt community transmission, rapidly making and delivering safe and efficacious vaccines presents unique development, manufacturing, supply chain, delivery, and post-market surveillance challenges. Despite the large number of vaccines in or entering the clinic, it is unclear how many candidates will meet regulatory requirements and which vaccine strategy will most effectively lead to sustained, population-wide immunity. Interviews with experts from biopharmaceutical companies, regulatory and multilateral organizations, non-profit foundations, and academic research groups, complemented with extensive literature review, informed the development of a framework for understanding the factors leading to population-wide immunity against SARS-CoV-2, in particular considering the role of vaccines. This paper presents a systems-level modeling framework to guide the development of analytical tools aimed at informing time-critical decisions to make vaccines globally and equitably accessible. Such a framework can be used for scenario planning and evaluating tradeoffs across access strategies. It highlights the diverse and powerful ways in which data can be used to evaluate future risks and strategically allocate limited resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: health systems; vaccine strategy; pandemic response; immunity; manufacturing; supply operations health systems; vaccine strategy; pandemic response; immunity; manufacturing; supply operations
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MDPI and ACS Style

Guttieres, D.; Sinskey, A.J.; Springs, S.L. Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic. Systems 2021, 9, 4. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9010004

AMA Style

Guttieres D, Sinskey AJ, Springs SL. Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic. Systems. 2021; 9(1):4. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9010004

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guttieres, Donovan, Anthony J. Sinskey, and Stacy L. Springs 2021. "Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic" Systems 9, no. 1: 4. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9010004

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