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Article

Modeling the Spread and Control of COVID-19

1
Spext, Bengaluru 560053, India
2
David R. Cheriton School of Computer Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
3
International Institute of Information Technology Bangalore, Bengaluru 560100, India
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Oz Sahin
Received: 25 May 2021 / Revised: 26 June 2021 / Accepted: 28 June 2021 / Published: 13 July 2021
Data-centric models of COVID-19 have been attempted, but have certain limitations. In this work, we propose an agent-based model of the epidemic in a confined space of agents representing humans. An extension to the SEIR model allows us to consider the difference between the appearance (black-box view) of the spread of disease and the real situation (glass-box view). Our model allows for simulations of lockdowns, social distancing, personal hygiene, quarantine, and hospitalization, with further considerations of different parameters, such as the extent to which hygiene and social distancing are observed in a population. Our results provide qualitative indications of the effects of various policies and parameters, for instance, that lockdowns by themselves are extremely unlikely to bring an end to an epidemic and may indeed make things worse, that social distancing is more important than personal hygiene, and that the growth of infection is significantly reduced for moderately high levels of social distancing and hygiene, even in the absence of herd immunity. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; SEIR; agent-based modeling; lockdown; hygiene; social distancing COVID-19; SEIR; agent-based modeling; lockdown; hygiene; social distancing
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MDPI and ACS Style

Trivedi, A.; Sreenivas, N.K.; Rao, S. Modeling the Spread and Control of COVID-19. Systems 2021, 9, 53. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9030053

AMA Style

Trivedi A, Sreenivas NK, Rao S. Modeling the Spread and Control of COVID-19. Systems. 2021; 9(3):53. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9030053

Chicago/Turabian Style

Trivedi, Ashutosh, Nanda K. Sreenivas, and Shrisha Rao. 2021. "Modeling the Spread and Control of COVID-19" Systems 9, no. 3: 53. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/systems9030053

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