Systems, Volume 9, Issue 4 (December 2021) – 21 articles

The paper uses activity theory for understanding and managing the complexity involved in the transition of a product-service organization from closed to the technology-mediated open mode of innovation. In particular, activity theory is used to facilitate the alignment of the open innovation model adopted with the organization’s dominant argumentation scheme by developing nested representations of the innovation process in the traditional closed mode, as well as in the user-led innovation and user co-creation modes, associated with product- and service-provision operations, respectively. For all cases, we concentrate on the argumentation-in-innovation activity and its context. We arrive at insights about the process of Activity Based Analysis (ABA) in this endeavor and the issues raised through action research in a product-service firm in the food and beverages sector, aiming at adopting an open innovation strategy implemented in the innovation community mode. Full article

This paper builds confidence in the terror contagion hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to predatory mass violence operates as a system. Within this system, the contingent values of key root causes create channels within which violent ideologies and terrorism emerge. We built a system dynamics simulation model capable of replicating historical reference modes and sophisticated enough to test the contingent values of these propositions. Of 16 propositions, we identified six root-cause propositions that must simultaneously exist, act in concert and explain the dynamics of their interaction which generate a terror contagion. Other propositions can strengthen or weaken an existing contagion but not eliminate it. We use an experiment to demonstrate how changing the contingent values of these propositions creates downward channels. This experiment helps reconcile the swarm vs. fishermen debate over the true root causes of violent radicalization. Within these channels, the contingent values can favor swarm or fishermen manifestations. The simulation and experimentation results enable the future development of the terror contagion hypothesis, provide a testing environment for research on violent radicalization, and provide a pathway to policy development in the combating of terrorism that arises from violent radicalization. Full article

This paper describes an approach to blend several qualitative and quantitative methods to establish the boundaries of complex systems in terms of uncontrollable, non-numeric variables. Decision makers increasingly encounter layered, multidimensional, interconnected issues that contain unknown unknowns, vast uncertainties, and ill-defined lines of demarcation between the beginning and the end of the problem. The inexactness of boundaries in a systems problem is a result of not knowing important variables, existence of uncontrollable variables, and near-uncountable significant interactions among the variables. Furthermore, complexities and systems challenges arise from unexpected emergent behavior(s) that are often the primary concerns of systems engineers. The ability to investigate uncontrollable variables and their interactions with the system of interest is a critical step for bounding the system problem and defining the solution space. Thus, this paper focuses on developing a means for systematically examining these variables. By incorporating scenario-based computer simulations, scenario discretization, and customized designs of experiments, the authors offer systems engineers and scientists an approach for defining a viable solution space of a complex problem by developing constraint equations from uncontrollable, non-numeric variables. Full article

A project model is presented that weaves together ideas from earned value project management and systems dynamics. It is able to adjust to increasingly unhealthy actual project behaviors in ways that preserve the signature pattern of the staffing histograms observed in the real world and provide a tool for managers to correct projects that are not meeting the plan. Starting from the planned staffing histogram and the project performance baseline, the model captures the delay and cost of experience dilution, includes the unplanned-for effort that is revealed in the typical pattern of the Cost Performance Index, assesses progress using the actual cost to date and the earned value to date, and adjusts staffing, scope, or both, to complete the project on schedule. A new method of approximating work remaining, called project-to-date, is shown to track the planned staffing histogram better than the commonly used fraction-complete method. Full article

This paper investigates the effect of different Internet application scenarios on the forward and reverse knowledge transfer between architecture enterprises and component enterprises in the context of modular production in manufacturing enterprises. After dividing the Internet contexts into three the perspectives of Internet tools, Internet platforms, and Internet resources, this paper adopts a system dynamics approach to construct a causality model and a system flow diagram of the influence of different Internet contexts on the knowledge transfer between architecture enterprises and component enterprises, and uses Vensim PLE software to simulate and conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model. The results show that the three Internet contexts, namely Internet tools, Internet platforms, and Internet resources, can promote both positive and negative knowledge transfer between architecture enterprises and component enterprises, and exhibit a steadily growing trend of promotion; Internet tools and Internet resources are more conducive to positive knowledge transfer from architecture enterprises to component enterprises, and Internet platforms have a stronger facilitation effect on the reverse knowledge transfer from the component enterprises to the architecture enterprises. Our research offers useful recommendations for businesses on how to utilize various Internet settings to promote and assist effective knowledge transfer. Full article

Digital business model innovation is discussed by bringing together systemic innovation and digital innovation. Applying the Rich Picture technique, the complexity transpiring in the digital innovation of the business models is illustrated. Further, a real world example is presented and discussed in relation to systemic innovation and digital innovation. This study further contributes by shedding light on the added complexity brought by digital innovation but also the need for a combined and mixed systems thinking approach. Full article

The multisided platform (MSP) is an essential business construct in the digital economy. Some of the largest companies in the world—including Google, Amazon, and eBay—exploit the MSP in their business models. Fundamental insights into the MSP are crucial to understand the business operations of the digital economy and how new innovative digital services are adopted in the market. The MSP ecosystem is complex and dynamic, and involves heterogeneous stakeholders with different business motivations. This paper classifies the various types of MSPs, distinguished by the network effect between user groups. Moreover, this paper shows how the original diffusion model of Frank Bass can be extended to analyze the temporal evolution of multisided platforms. Analytical models using coupled sets of ordinary differential equations are developed for several examples of two-sided platforms. For some of these examples, analytical solutions are found. Full article

Nanocomposites provide outstanding benefits and possibilities compared to traditional composites but struggle to make it into the market due to the complexity and large number of associated challenges involved in, as well as lack of standards for, nanocomposite commercialization. This article proposes a commercialization framework utilizing market analysis and systems engineering to support the commercialization process of such high technologies. The article demonstrates the importance and usefulness of utilizing Model-Based Systems Engineering throughout the commercialization process of nanocomposite technologies when combining it with the Lean LaunchPad approach and an engineering analysis. The framework was validated using a qualitative research method with a case study approach. Applying this framework to a nanocomposite, called ZT-CFRP technology, showed tremendous impacts on the commercialization process, such as reduced market and technological uncertainties, which limits the commercialization risk and increases the chance for capital funding. Furthermore, utilizing the framework helped to decrease the commercialization time and cost due to the use of a lean engineering analysis. This framework is intended to assist advanced material-based companies, material scientists, researchers and entrepreneurs in academia and the industry during the commercialization process by minimizing uncertainties and risks, while focusing resources to reduce time-to-market and development costs. Full article

This paper presents findings from a process aimed at identifying the climate linkages of non-climate focused environment and development projects in India. Findings from four case studies based on workshops using participatory systems thinking are summarized. These climate adjacencies are documented as systems stories using the tools of systems thinking—behavior over time graphs and causal loop diagrams. These place-based stories highlight how the environment and development projects have linkages with climate change mitigation and adaptation. An attempt has been made to convert one of the systems stories into a computable simulation model using system dynamics modelling. A small concept model has been created thus and used to perform simulation runs. Four scenarios have been generated and the results discussed. Our learning from converting feedback maps into stock-flow models is presented. The insights generated from interpreting the feedback maps and simulation results are also presented. These insights are then compared and the benefits of simulation evaluated. The paper highlights the need to document climate linkages of non-climate-focused development projects and the benefit of converting systems stories into simulation models for developing operational insights. The important role such methods can play in developing capacities for enhancing climate action is also discussed. Full article

This article presents a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology for the development of a Digital Twin (DT) for an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) with the ability to demonstrate route selection capability with a Mission Engineering (ME) focus. It reviews the concept of ME and integrates ME with a MBSE framework for the development of the DT. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study where the UAS is deployed for a Last Mile Delivery (LMD) mission in a military context where adversaries are present, and a route optimization module recommends an optimal route to the user based on a variety of inputs including potential damage or destruction of the UAS by adversary action. The optimization module is based on Multiple Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) which analyzes predefined criteria which the user assessed would enable the successful conduct of the UAS mission. The article demonstrates that the methodology can execute a ME analysis for route selection to support a user’s decision-making process. The discussion section highlights the key MBSE artifacts and also highlights the benefits of the methodology which standardizes the decision-making process thereby reducing the negative impact of human factors which may deviate from the predefined criteria. Full article

Cost–volume–profit (CVP) analysis is a widely used decision tool across many business disciplines. The current literature on stochastic applications of the CVP model is limited in that the model is studied under the restrictive forms of the Gaussian and Lognormal distributions. In this paper we introduce the Mellin Transform as a methodology to generalize stochastic modeling of the CVP problem. We demonstrate the versatility of using the Mellin transform to model the CVP problem, and present a generalization of the CVP model when the contribution margin and sales volume are both defined by continuous random distributions. Full article

Managing the transportation of dangerous goods (DG) through road tunnels is of great importance since it is associated with a serious risk of accidents. The consequences of an accident involving DG, especially in the closed tunnel environment, might be more significant and even more catastrophic compared to the same accident occurring on an open road. This article presents the Greek experience regarding the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods for the transportation of DG through Greek road tunnels. The modified Delphi method, with the participation of nine experts, is employed to investigate the obstacles to successfully conforming with the mandatory European Union regulatory framework that applies to transport operations within the Trans-European road network. Recommendations are made to improve the applied QRA approach, to facilitate the cooperation between tunnel managers and emergency services, to communicate lessons learned and to enhance the training of risk assessors. Full article

The proliferation of Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) capabilities in the commercial sector is posing potentially significant threats to the traditional perimeter defense of civilian and military facilities. Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) UAS are small, cheap, and come with multiple types of functions which have growing interest among hobbyists. This has prompted the need for facility commanders to have a methodology to conduct quick evaluation and analysis of the facility and the existing Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (CUAS)’s effectiveness. This research proposes a methodology that follows a systems engineering perspective to provide a step-by-step process in conducting evaluation and analysis by employing Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tools to understand the CUAS’s effectiveness and limitations. The methodology analyzes the CUAS’s operating environment and effects of the dominant factors and impacts that CUAS may pose to other stakeholders (e.g., adjacent allied forces, civilians, etc.) within the area of operation. We then identify configuration candidates for optimizing the CUAS’s performance to meet the requirements of the stakeholders. A case study of a hypothetical airport with existing CUAS is presented to demonstrate the usability of the methodology, explore the candidates, and justify the implementation of a candidate that fits the facility and the stakeholders’ requirements. Full article

The reuse of existing materials in buildings can give a contribution to sustainable practices such as a balance in embodied energy, water, and emission reduction. However, it is not always possible to maintain the existing structural materials because some different technical variables could hamper their usability, namely seismic reinforcement needs, fire safety protection, conservation state, and new legal requirements. The paper follows a case study approach for assessing the technical and environmental performances of structural options for old building retrofitting works. All structural options were analyzed through the results of several categories of environmental impact. Some parameters of a retrofitting management system were also used to frame in a comprehensive way the technical constraints pertaining to building retrofitting works. The structural option choice was taken by the owner with the contribution of the design team and the construction manager of the construction project as well as the results of interviews with other construction professionals, considering the variables related to technical suitability and environmental impact. The results of the study show that the steel structure is the solution that best addresses the technical constraints of the building retrofit works and minimizes environmental impact. The results of the study also suggest that the consideration of other variables other than the technical ones can contribute to the effective functioning of the renovation subsegment of the building market. Some suggestions for further studies to enhance the results of this work are put forward. Full article

Smart home automation is expected to improve living standards with the evolution of internet of things (IoT) that facilitate the remote control of residential appliances. There are, however, several factors that require attention for broader successful consumer adoption. This paper focusses on three key barriers: (i) different underlying technologies requiring an integrated voice-based control for ease of use, (ii) lack of trust due to security and privacy concerns, and (iii) unawareness of the use of machine intelligence by users for exploiting the full potential of smartness. Voice-controlled home environments are possible with cloud-based solutions that are being deployed commercially. However, there are drawbacks due to non-standard voice channels and commands with delays in meeting the required response time for real-time services. Adoption is also required to meet with the expected goals of simplicity, security, and integration. To address these barriers, we propose a model integrating IoT services and wireless technologies for developing a secure smart home automation with a voice-controlled artificial intelligence system. We demonstrate the model’s application in a variety of practical use cases, by implementing a secure and smart voice-based system for an integrated control of several home devices seamlessly. Full article

In the face of the rapid growth in the scale and complexity of multidisciplinary systems, being able to develop reliable systems under ever-faster changing and more individual market requirements is becoming more and more challenging. The Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach has already been researched heavily, and started to be introduced for the management of complexity, maintaining consistency, and reducing development costs and the time-to-market. However, a major drawback of the current MBSE methodologies is the lack of capability to integrate with domain-specific simulation models to investigate design concepts in the early phases of the development process. In order to address this issue, we propose a holistic system modeling approach that allows system engineers to link descriptive system models with domain-specific simulation models. In this paper, the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) is used as the standard architecture modeling language. A system modeling approach in SysML based on the system’s functional architecture for system design and validation is defined. The approach was developed to integrate domain-specific models into the system model using a SysML modeler with the capability of running and reusing simulation tasks via the coupling of external tools, which helps to bridge the existing gap between models on the system level and detail level. The feasibility of the proposed approach will be evaluated based on the case study of a wind turbine (WT) system. The study shows that our approach has the potential to enable the consistent, parameter-based interlinkage of domain-specific models based on always-up-to-date data, and to assist engineers in making design decisions to meet the system requirements accurately and rapidly in different engineering fields. Full article

This paper seeks to explain the nature of autopoiesis and its capacity to be efficacious, and to do this, it uses agency theory as embedded in metacybernetics. Agency, as a generalised intelligent adaptive living system, can anticipate the future once it has internalised a representation of an active contextual situation through autopoiesis. The role of observation and the nature of internalisation will be discussed, explaining that the latter has two states that determine agency properties of cognition. These are assimilation and accommodation. Assimilation is an information process and results in implicit cognition and recognition, whereas accommodation uses assimilated information delivering explicit cognition, recognition, and conscious awareness with rationality. Similarly, anticipation, a required property of the living, has two states, weak and strong, and these correspond to the two states of internalisation. Autopoiesis has various properties identifiable through the lenses of three autonomous but configurable schemas: General Collective Intelligence (GCI), Eigenform, and Extreme Physical Information (EPI). GCI is a pragmatic evolutionary approach concerned with a contextually connected purposeful and relatable set of task processes, each undertaken by a team of subagencies seeking collective fitness. Eigenform is a symbolic approach that is concerned with how observations can be suitably internalised and thus be used as a token to determine future behaviour, and how that which has been internalised can be adopted to anticipate the future. Extreme Physical Information (EPI) is an empirical approach concerned with acquiring information through observation of an unknown parameter through sampling regimes. The paper represents the conceptualisations of each schema in terms of autopoietic efficacy, and explores their configurative possibilities. It will adopt the ideas delivered to enhance explanations of the nature of autopoiesis and its efficacy within metacybernetics, providing a shift in thinking about autopoiesis and self-organisation. Full article

The existence or non-existence of a threat to a system is essential for its existence or essential for the functionality of the system. Even more crucial is the potential of the threat and its development, which leads to the failure of the symmetry of the system. What influences the development of such threats? What contexts influence the evolution of system threats? The development of threats is linked to the changing values of indicators that affect the state of the threat at a certain point in time. This development takes place in a constantly changing environment, therefore it is dynamically and causally linked. The system aims to maintain its order, however, the influence of the development of threats deflects it towards the entropy of the system. The paper is focused on the identification of the phases of the development of threats and their impact on the symmetry of a system. The paper presents a theoretical view of the impact of threat development on system symmetry failure. Full article

In this article, we consider a variety of different mechanisms through which crises such as COVID-19 can propagate from the micro-economic behaviour of individual agents through to an economy’s aggregate dynamics and subsequently spill over into the global economy. Our central theme is one of changes in the behaviour of heterogeneous agents, agents who differ in terms of some measure of size, wealth, connectivity, or behaviour, in different parts of an economy. These are illustrated through a variety of case studies, from individuals and households with budgetary constraints, to financial markets, to companies composed of thousands of small projects, to companies that implement single multi-billion dollar projects. In each case, we emphasise the role of data or theoretical models and place them in the context of measuring their inter-connectivity and emergent dynamics. Some of these are simple models that need to be ‘dressed’ in socio-economic data to be used for policy-making, and we give an example of how to do this with housing markets, while others are more similar to archaeological evidence; they provide hints about the bigger picture but have yet to be unified with other results. The result is only an outline of what is possible but it shows that we are drawing closer to an integrated set of concepts, principles, and models. In the final section, we emphasise the potential as well as the limitations and what the future of these methods hold for economics. Full article

COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered quickly in the USA. However, a surprisingly large number of Americans are unwilling to get vaccinated. Without enough people getting vaccinated, the pandemic will not end. The longer the pandemic persists, the more opportunities exist for more virulent strains to emerge. This model looks at the effects of people’s behavior in containing and ending the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. Human behavior adds several feedback loops to the standard SEIR model. Comparisons are made between cases with and without behavior loops, with reduced adherence to the recommended or mandated masks and social distancing, with and without the vaccine, and the effects of an early mask mandate termination. The results suggest human behavior must be accounted for in epidemiology models and that removing masks before enough vaccine are administered not only puts those vaccinated at risk, but allows the disease to readily spread again. Full article

A constructive approach is provided for the reconstruction of stationary and non-stationary patterns in the one-dimensional Gray-Scott model, utilizing measurements of the system state at a finite number of locations. Relations between the parameters of the model and the density of the sensor locations are derived that ensure the exponential convergence of the estimated state to the original one. The designed observer is capable of tracking a variety of complex spatiotemporal behaviors and self-replicating patterns. The theoretical findings are illustrated in particular numerical case studies. The results of the paper can be used for the synchronization analysis of the master–slave configuration of two identical Gray–Scott models coupled via a finite number of spatial points and can also be exploited for the purposes of feedback control applications in which the complete state information is required. Full article