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Article

Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050)

1
Department of Geography, Yarmouk University, Irbid 21163, Jordan
2
Applied Geoinformatics Laboratory, Yarmouk University, Irbid 21163, Jordan
Academic Editors: Wolfgang Kainz and Maria Antonia Brovelli
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2021, 10(4), 212; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10040212
Received: 20 January 2021 / Revised: 10 March 2021 / Accepted: 24 March 2021 / Published: 1 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geodata Science and Spatial Analysis in Urban Studies)
Urban expansion and loss of primarily agricultural land are two of the challenges facing Jordan. Located in the most productive agricultural area of Jordan, Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM) uncontrolled urban growth has posed a grand challenge in both sustaining its prime croplands and developing comprehensive planning strategies. This study investigated the loss of agricultural land for urban growth in GIM from 1972–2050 and denoted the negative consequences of the amalgamation process of 2001 on farmland loss. The aim is to unfold and track historical land use/cover changes and forecast these changes to the future using a modified SLEUTH-3r urban growth model. The accuracy of prediction results was assessed in three different sites between 2015 and 2020. In 43 years the built-up area increased from 29.2 km2 in 1972 to 71 km2 in 2015. By 2050, the built-up urban area would increase to 107 km2. The overall rate of increase, however, showed a decline across the study period, with the periods of 1990–2000 and 2000–2015 having the highest rate of built-up areas expansion at 68.6 and 41.4%, respectively. While the agricultural area increased from 178 km2 in 1972 to 207 km2 in 2000, it decreased to 195 km2 in 2015 and would continue to decrease to 188 km2 by 2050. The district-level analysis shows that from 2000–2015, the majority of districts exhibited an urban increase at twice the rate of 1990–2000. The results of the net change analysis of agriculture show that between 1990 and 2000, 9 districts exhibited a positive gain in agricultural land while the rest of the districts showed a negative loss of agricultural land. From 2000 to 2015, the four districts of Naser, Nozha, Rawdah, and Hashmyah completely lost their agricultural areas for urbanization. By 2050, Idoon and Boshra districts will likely lose more than half of their high-quality agricultural land. This study seeks to utilize a spatially explicit urban growth model to support sustainable planning policies for urban land use through forecasting. The implications from this study confirm the worldwide urbanization impacts on losing the most productive agricultural land in the outskirts and consequences on food production and food security. The study calls for urgent actions to adopt a compact growth policy with no new land added for development as what is available now exceeds what is needed by 2050 to accommodate urban growth in GIM. View Full-Text
Keywords: urban sprawl; land conversion; Cellular Automata models; Greater Irbid Municipality; agricultural land loss; SLEUTH-3r; Jordan urban sprawl; land conversion; Cellular Automata models; Greater Irbid Municipality; agricultural land loss; SLEUTH-3r; Jordan
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MDPI and ACS Style

Jawarneh, R.N. Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050). ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2021, 10, 212. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10040212

AMA Style

Jawarneh RN. Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050). ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2021; 10(4):212. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10040212

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jawarneh, Rana N. 2021. "Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050)" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 4: 212. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10040212

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