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Article

Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

by 1,2, 1,*, 3 and 1,2
1
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Dean Kyne and Wolfgang Kainz
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2021, 10(6), 363; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10060363
Received: 31 March 2021 / Revised: 21 May 2021 / Accepted: 25 May 2021 / Published: 28 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster Management and Geospatial Information)
Earthquakes often cause secondary disasters in mountainous areas, forming the typical earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain for a long time that results in a series of losses. It is important to improve the risk assessment method from the perspective of cascading effect of such a disaster chain, by strengthening quantitative research on hazards of the debris flows which are affected by landslide volume and rainstorm intensity. Taking Wenchuan County as an example, the risk assessment method for population loss of the disaster chain is established and the risks are evaluated in this paper. The results show that the population loss risk is 2.59–2.71 people/km2 under the scenarios of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and four rainstorm intensities. The impacts of landslide and debris flow after the earthquake were long-term and profound. A comparison of risks caused by each element of the chain revealed that the risk associated with the earthquake accounted for the highest proportion, and landslide and debris flow accounted for 38.82–37.18% and 3.42–7.50%, respectively. As the earthquake intensity increases, the total risk posed by the disaster chain increases significantly. The risk caused by the earthquake is the highest in high earthquake intensity zones; while in the lower-intensity zones, landslides and debris flows pose relatively high risks. The risk assessment results were verified through comparison with actual data, indicating that the simulation results are quite consistent with the existing disaster information and that the risk assessment method based on the earthquake-landslide-debris flow cascade process is significant for future risk estimation. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk assessment; disaster chain; population loss; debris flows; Wenchuan risk assessment; disaster chain; population loss; debris flows; Wenchuan
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MDPI and ACS Style

Han, X.; Yin, Y.; Wu, Y.; Wu, S. Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2021, 10, 363. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10060363

AMA Style

Han X, Yin Y, Wu Y, Wu S. Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2021; 10(6):363. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10060363

Chicago/Turabian Style

Han, Xiang, Yunhe Yin, Yuming Wu, and Shaohong Wu. 2021. "Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 6: 363. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi10060363

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