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Article

Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

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Department of Forestry Engineering, Laboratory of Silviculture, Dendrochronology and Climate Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra de Andalucía (IISTA), University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, Spain
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Department of Ecology, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, Spain
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Department of Graphic Engineering and Geomatics, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(7), 458; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070458
Received: 19 June 2020 / Revised: 16 July 2020 / Accepted: 17 July 2020 / Published: 20 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geo-Informatics in Resource Management)
The effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Metronamica) was tested to simulate (1999–2007) and predict (2007–2035) land-use dynamics and land-use changes in Andalucía (Spain). The model was calibrated using temporal changes in land-use covers and was evaluated by the Kappa index. GIS-based maps were generated to study major rural land-use changes (agriculture and forests). The change matrix for 1999–2007 showed an overall area change of 674971 ha. The dominant land uses in 2007 were shrubs (30.7%), woody crops on dry land (17.3%), and herbaceous crops on dry land (12.7%). The comparison between the reference and the simulated land-use maps of 2007 showed a Kappa index of 0.91. The land-cover map for the projected PRELUDE scenarios provided the land-cover characteristics of 2035 in Andalusia; developed within the Metronamica model scenarios (Great Escape; Evolved Society; Clustered Network; Lettuce Surprise U; and Big Crisis). The greatest differences were found between Great Escape and Clustered Network and Lettuce Surprise U. The observed trend (1999–2007–2035) showed the greatest similarity with the Big Crisis scenario. Land-use projections facilitate the understanding of the future dynamics of land-use change in rural areas; and hence the development of more appropriate plans and policies View Full-Text
Keywords: future scenarios; prelude; dynamic of land use; Spatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover future scenarios; prelude; dynamic of land use; Spatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover
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MDPI and ACS Style

Navarro Cerrillo, R.M.; Palacios Rodríguez, G.; Clavero Rumbao, I.; Lara, M.Á.; Bonet, F.J.; Mesas-Carrascosa, F.-J. Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain). ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 458. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070458

AMA Style

Navarro Cerrillo RM, Palacios Rodríguez G, Clavero Rumbao I, Lara MÁ, Bonet FJ, Mesas-Carrascosa F-J. Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain). ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2020; 9(7):458. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070458

Chicago/Turabian Style

Navarro Cerrillo, Rafael M., Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez, Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao, Miguel Á. Lara, Francisco J. Bonet, and Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa. 2020. "Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain)" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 7: 458. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070458

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