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Article

Urban Crime Risk Prediction Using Point of Interest Data

Institute of Computer Science, Warsaw University of Technology, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(7), 459; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070459
Received: 9 June 2020 / Revised: 3 July 2020 / Accepted: 15 July 2020 / Published: 21 July 2020
Geographical information systems have found successful applications to prediction and decision-making in several areas of vital importance to contemporary society. This article demonstrates how they can be combined with machine learning algorithms to create crime prediction models for urban areas. Selected point of interest (POI) layers from OpenStreetMap are used to derive attributes describing micro-areas, which are assigned crime risk classes based on police crime records. POI attributes then serve as input attributes for learning crime risk prediction models with classification learning algorithms. The experimental results obtained for four UK urban areas suggest that POI attributes have high predictive utility. Classification models using these attributes, without any form of location identification, exhibit good predictive performance when applied to new, previously unseen micro-areas. This makes them capable of crime risk prediction for newly developed or dynamically changing neighborhoods. The high dimensionality of the model input space can be considerably reduced without predictive performance loss by attribute selection or principal component analysis. Models trained on data from one area achieve a good level of prediction quality when applied to another area, which makes it possible to transfer or combine crime risk prediction models across different urban areas. View Full-Text
Keywords: crime prediction; point of interest; machine learning; classification crime prediction; point of interest; machine learning; classification
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MDPI and ACS Style

Cichosz, P. Urban Crime Risk Prediction Using Point of Interest Data. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 459. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070459

AMA Style

Cichosz P. Urban Crime Risk Prediction Using Point of Interest Data. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2020; 9(7):459. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070459

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cichosz, Paweł. 2020. "Urban Crime Risk Prediction Using Point of Interest Data" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 7: 459. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/ijgi9070459

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