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Article

Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

1
Department of Statistics, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), 01080 Mexico City, Mexico
2
CREATES, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
3
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, 9210 Aalborg ∅st, Denmark
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 11 July 2020 / Revised: 28 August 2020 / Accepted: 14 September 2020 / Published: 17 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Health Econometrics)
This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have a permanent effect on growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of timely counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic. View Full-Text
Keywords: long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; unemployment long memory; persistence; structural change; pandemics; growth; unemployment
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MDPI and ACS Style

Rodríguez-Caballero, C.V.; Vera-Valdés, J.E. Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment. Econometrics 2020, 8, 37. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/econometrics8030037

AMA Style

Rodríguez-Caballero CV, Vera-Valdés JE. Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment. Econometrics. 2020; 8(3):37. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/econometrics8030037

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rodríguez-Caballero, C. V., and J. E. Vera-Valdés 2020. "Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment" Econometrics 8, no. 3: 37. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/econometrics8030037

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