Climate, Volume 10, Issue 1 (January 2022) – 9 articles

Despite the concern about climate change and the associated negative impacts, fossil fuels continue to prevail in the global energy consumption. This paper aimed to propose the first model that relates CO₂ emissions of Sao Paulo, the main urban center emitter in Brazil, with gross national product and energy consumption. Thus, we investigated the accuracy of three different methods: multivariate linear regression, elastic-net regression, and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Comparing the results, we clearly demonstrated the superiority of artificial neural networks when compared with the other models. They presented better results of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.76%) and the highest possible coefficient of determination (R² = 1.00). This investigation provides an innovative integrated climate-economic approach for the accurate prediction of carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be considered as a potential valuable decision-support tool for policymakers to design and implement effective environmental policies. Full article

If we are going to be able to fight climate change in an effective way there is a need for a profound sustainability transformation of society. The question is how everyday pro-environmental behavior such as climate-friendly food choices should be looked upon in this context: as something that hides the need for structural change, or as a starting point for a profound transformation? The aim is to discuss how emotions related to conflicts encountered when trying to make everyday climate-friendly food choices in a society that is not always sustainable can be used to promote transformational learning. Interviews were performed with 15 adolescents. Emotions felt in relation to conflicts and how the youth cope were explored. The results show that the youth mainly felt individualized emotions of guilt, helplessness, and irritation and that they coped primarily by distancing themselves from emotions felt, but also sometimes in a problem-focused way and through positive reappraisal. Results are discussed in relation to theories about critical emotional awareness and prefigurative politics. It is argued that by taking account of emotional aspects related to everyday conflicts in a critical manner, issues such as justice could be brought to the surface and transformative learning could be enhanced. Full article

Climate change is a current subject that is attracting more and more attention, whether from academics or the public. This public attention is mainly due to the frequently published news in the media, reporting consequences caused by extreme weather events. On the other hand, scientists are looking into the origins of the phenomenon, seeking answers that will somehow help to mitigate the effects of climate change. This article presents a review of some of the different possible approaches taken on climate change, to demonstrate the need to build a multidisciplinary perspective of the problem. It is understood that only the integration of different perspectives, presented by different areas of knowledge, such as natural sciences, social and economic sciences and human sciences, will make it possible to build modeling and predictive scenarios, which realistically may represent the development of the earth system under the influence of climate change. In this way, with the support of all areas of knowledge, the creation of forecast models where all possible changes to the different variables of the earth system may be simulated will allow for the mitigation measures presented to be analyzed in advance and, thus, prioritized. This review shows that a multi and interdisciplinary approach, based on the knowledge acquired from different knowledge and science fields, presents itself as the way to solve this global and complex problem caused by climate change. Full article

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km²) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions. Full article

We address the following question: Are turning points of daily air temperature function a piece of relevant climatological information worth recording and analyzing? Diurnal Extrema Timing (DET) are daily occurrence times of air temperature minimum and maximum. Although unrecognized and unrecorded as a meteorological variable, the exact timing of daily temperature extrema plays a crucial role in the characterization of air temperature variability. In this study, we introduce the DET concept and assess the plausibility of this potential parameter in detecting temperature extrema timing changes. Conceptualization of the DET parameter has, for a primary goal, the supplementation of vital spatial information to the daily measurements of air temperature extrema. The elementary analysis of annual trends of daily DET examines the significance of this parameter in describing changes in the time domain of air temperature variability. The introduction of the new Climate Parameter Sensitivity Index (CPSI) for evaluating the susceptibility of climate parameters to climate change directs attention to the importance of the systematic acquisition of the timing of daily extrema in climate observations. The results of this study reveal the timing of daily air temperature maximum as the most vulnerable to climate change among temperature and timing extrema indices. Full article

Research on the relationship between microclimate and heritage buildings or historic buildings has increased dramatically in the last few decades. Research has focused on indoor climate or indoor microclimate or the environment or micro-environment, and the field of these studies regards several variables, physical—air temperature, air speed, relative humidity—or chemical, dust, CO₂, pollution, etc., all of which can have an effect or damage buildings or artifacts inside buildings. Moreover, all these variables should be monitored in a monitoring campaign following the standard EN 15757; in spite of this, scientific literature contains mistakes with regard to the words and objects of study. In this short contribution, the author proposes a common nomenclature in the research field of climate and microclimate in heritage buildings and heritage artifacts. A new nomenclature should be useful for the community of heritage scientists working on preventive measures to distinguish between climate and environment, or the object of study, e.g., the room (wall, wood structure, fresco, etc.) where the artifacts are or the air around them (painting, canvas, statue, piece of furniture, documents, books, etc.). Full article

Urbanization is closely associated with land use land cover (LULC) changes that correspond to land surface temperature (LST) variation and urban heat island (UHI) intensity. Major districts of Bangladesh have a large population base and commonly lack the resources to manage fast urbanization effects, so any rise in urban temperature influences the population both directly and indirectly. However, little is known about the impact of rapid urbanization on UHI intensity variations during the winter dry period in the major districts of Bangladesh. To this end, we aim to quantify spatiotemporal associations of UHI intensity during the winter period between 2000 and 2019 using remote-sensing and geo-spatial tools. Landsat-8 and Landsat-5 imageries of these major districts during the dry winter period from 2000 to 2020 were used for this purpose, with overall precision varying from 81% to 93%. The results of LULC classification and LST estimation showed the existence of multiple UHIs in all major districts, which showed upward trends, except for the Rajshahi and Rangpur districts. A substantial increase in urban expansion was observed in Barisal > 32%, Mymensingh > 18%, Dhaka > 17%, Chattogram > 14%, and Rangpur > 13%, while a significant decrease in built-up areas was noticed in Sylhet < −1.45% and Rajshahi < −3.72%. We found that large districts have greater UHIs than small districts. High UHI intensities were observed in Mymensingh > 10 °C, Chattogram > 9 °C, and Barisal > 8 °C compared to other districts due to dense population and unplanned urbanization. We identified higher LST (hotspots) zones in all districts to be increased with the urban expansion and bare land. The suburbanized strategy should prioritize the restraint of the high intensity of UHIs. A heterogeneous increase in UHI intensity over all seven districts was found, which might have potential implications for regional climate change. Our study findings will enable policymakers to reduce UHI and the climate change effect in the concerned districts. Full article

The investigation of wave climate is of primary concern for the successful implementation of offshore aquaculture systems as waves can cause significant loads on them. Up until now, site selection and design (or selection) of offshore cage system structures on extended sea areas do not seem to follow any specific guidelines. This paper presents a novel methodology for the identification of favorable sites for offshore aquaculture development in an extended sea area based on two important technical factors: (i) the detailed characterization of the wave climate, and (ii) the water depth. Long-term statistics of the significant wave height, peak wave period, and wave steepness are estimated on an annual and monthly temporal scale, along with variability measures. Extreme value analysis is applied to estimate the design values and associated return periods of the significant wave height; structures should be designed based on this data, to avoid partial or total failure. The Eastern Mediterranean Sea is selected as a case study, and long-term time series of wave spectral parameters from the ERA5 dataset are utilized. Based on the obtained results, the most favorable areas for offshore aquaculture installations have been identified. Full article

South Korea is a signatory of the Paris Agreement and has announced its aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, South Korea’s current policy trajectory is not compatible with maintaining a global temperature rise below 2 °C. Climate change has not been a dominant electoral issue in South Korea, with national concerns being prioritized. A Paris-Agreement-compatible development pathway could synergistically improve ambient air quality in South Korea. This research examines the gains of a climate action pathway that would achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, in South Korea. The work aims to add further evidence to the potential national gains from strong climate action across all sectors in South Korea. The paper argues that by focusing on and estimating national gains, the momentum for enhanced climate policy action can be intensified by framing robust climate action as an opportunity rather than a cost. Through a climate action pathway, South Korea could avoid 835 years of life lost (YLL) in 2030, 2237 YLL in 2040 and 3389 YLL in 2050. Through this pathway, South Korea could also cumulatively abate 5539 million tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO_2e) in greenhouse gas emissions over the 2022–2050 period. Full article