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Climate, Volume 7, Issue 2 (February 2019) – 17 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): Green spaces can play an important role in providing favorable thermal comfort conditions for users of outdoor spaces. To address this issue, a structured experiment was developed where a defined set of individuals was exposed to differentiated microclimate conditions, in four nearby locations inside a garden. This experiment took place in summer and early autumn conditions. Results show that a wide range of thermal sensations were found during this experiment. Data analysis shows the influence of air temperature, global radiation, wind speed, and interviewees’ gender on thermal sensations. Results suggest that diverse micrometeorological conditions can offer additional adaptive opportunities for green space users. View this paper.
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16 pages, 2616 KiB  
Article
Fishers’ Decisions to Adopt Adaptation Strategies and Expectations for Their Children to Pursue the Same Profession in Chumphon Province, Thailand
by Sukanya Sereenonchai and Noppol Arunrat
Climate 2019, 7(2), 34; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020034 - 20 Feb 2019
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4000
Abstract
Coastal communities and small-scale fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we aimed to examine fishers’ decisions to adapt to climate change and their expectations for their children to pursue the same profession. Data were obtained from fisher households covering [...] Read more.
Coastal communities and small-scale fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we aimed to examine fishers’ decisions to adapt to climate change and their expectations for their children to pursue the same profession. Data were obtained from fisher households covering 8 districts and 22 sub-districts in the coastal area of Chumphon Province, Thailand, using participatory observation, focus group discussion, and in-person field surveys. A binary logistic regression model was used to determine factors influencing the fishers’ decisions and their expectations for their children to inherit their occupation. Results showed that the fishers are aware of the increasing trends in air temperature, sea water temperature, inland precipitation, offshore precipitation, and storms. Increased fishing experience and fishing income increased the likelihood of the fishers applying adaptations to climate change. Looking to the future, fishers with high fishing incomes expect their children to pursue the occupation, whereas increased fishing experience, non-fishing incomes, and perceptions of storms likely discourage them from expecting their children to be fishers. Of the fishers interviewed, 58.06% decided to apply adaptations in response to climate change by incorporating climate-smart agriculture, particularly by cultivating rubber, oil palm, and orchards as a second income source. The adoption of climate-smart fisheries should be considered in relation to the body of local knowledge, as well as the needs and priorities of the fisher community. To cope with the impacts of current and future climate change on coastal communities, the national focal point of adaptation should be climate change, and related governmental agencies should pay more attention to these key factors for adaptation. Full article
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13 pages, 3167 KiB  
Article
Observed Recent Change in Climate and Potential for Decay of Norwegian Wood Structures
by Terje Grøntoft
Climate 2019, 7(2), 33; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020033 - 19 Feb 2019
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3821
Abstract
The wood rot decay of structures and buildings in Norway represents high costs. This paper reports the observed trends for the potential rot decay of Norwegian wood structures in the cities of Oslo and Bergen over the recent 55 years, calculated as the [...] Read more.
The wood rot decay of structures and buildings in Norway represents high costs. This paper reports the observed trends for the potential rot decay of Norwegian wood structures in the cities of Oslo and Bergen over the recent 55 years, calculated as the “wood rot climate index” developed by Scheffer, and compares the reports with previous reported values based on climate change modelling. The observed change in the wood rot climate index was close to the modelling result. Bergen is exposed directly to the westerly Atlantic winds and has among the highest rain amounts in Norway, whereas Oslo is shielded by the Scandinavian mountain chain and has much less rain. The change in the wood rot climate index since 1961 was about 20% in both cities, but the trend in the index (climate index change per year) was about 80% stronger in Bergen. The absolute index changes were largest in the summer; then spring (50 to 60% of the summer increase); and small, zero, or even negative (autumn in Oslo) in the remaining seasons. The relative changes were higher in the spring than summer and very high in Bergen in the winter from a low value. The change to positive index values in the spring and winter indicates temperature and humidity conditions favoring the growth of wood rot and, thus, extended the rot duration through the year. The expected increase in the future wood rot decay potential in Norway shows the need for increased focus on adaption measures to reduce the related damages and costs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environment Pollution and Climate Change)
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16 pages, 8315 KiB  
Article
Controls on Land Surface Temperature in Deserts of Southern California Derived from MODIS Satellite Time Series Analysis, 2000 to 2018
by Christopher Potter and Dana Coppernoll-Houston
Climate 2019, 7(2), 32; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020032 - 11 Feb 2019
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3413
Abstract
The land surface temperature (LST) in arid regions is a primary controller of many ecological processes. Consequently, we have developed a framework for detection of LST change on a regional scale using data sets covering all deserts of southern California from the Moderate-Resolution [...] Read more.
The land surface temperature (LST) in arid regions is a primary controller of many ecological processes. Consequently, we have developed a framework for detection of LST change on a regional scale using data sets covering all deserts of southern California from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensor. The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) methodology was applied to MODIS 1-km monthly LST data from the years 2000 to 2018 to estimate significant time series shifts (breakpoints) and gradual trends. Area-wide results showed five times more positive LST breakpoints (abrupt temperature warming events) than negative (surface cooling) breakpoints. Cross-correlations with high rainfall periods around Mojave dry lake playas, and comparison with timing of wildfire burns for breakpoint patterns, showed that abrupt shifts in LST had the strongest response to these controllers. We detected negative LST (abrupt cooling) breakpoints as consistently associated with the construction of new solar energy facilities. Over the majority of the study area, BFAST results showed warming LST trends between the years 2000 and 2018. The western-most margins of the study area showed consistent widespread warming trends, whereas the eastern portions of the Mojave and Lower Colorado Deserts showed a mix of positive and neutral LST trends. Long-term cooling LST trends were detected only in some of the largest dry lake formations in the Antelope Valley, Death Valley, and Bristol, Cadiz, and Danby playas. Full article
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21 pages, 1953 KiB  
Article
A Proposed Exogenous Cause of the Global Temperature Hiatus
by Norman C. Treloar
Climate 2019, 7(2), 31; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020031 - 03 Feb 2019
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4154
Abstract
Since 1850, the rise in global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) from increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) has exhibited three ~30-year hiatus (surface cooling) episodes. The current hiatus is often thought to be generated by similar cooling episodes in Pacific or Atlantic [...] Read more.
Since 1850, the rise in global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) from increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) has exhibited three ~30-year hiatus (surface cooling) episodes. The current hiatus is often thought to be generated by similar cooling episodes in Pacific or Atlantic ocean basins. However, GMSTs as well as reconstructed Atlantic and Pacific ocean basin surface temperatures show the presence of similar multidecadal components generated from a three-dimensional analysis of differential gravitational (tidal) forcing from the sun and moon. This paper hypothesizes that these episodes are all caused by external tidal forcing that generates alternating ~30-year zonal and meridional circulation regimes, which respectively increase and decrease GMSTs through tidal effects on sequestration (deep ocean heat storage) and energy redistribution. Hiatus episodes consequently coincide with meridional regimes. The current meridional regime affecting GMSTs is predicted to continue to the mid-2030s but have limited tendency to decrease GMSTs from sequestration because of continuing increases in radiative forcing from increasing atmospheric GHGs. The tidal formulation also generates bidecadal oscillations, which may generate shorter ~12-year hiatus periods in global and ocean basin temperatures. The formulation appears to assimilate findings from disciplines as disparate as geophysics and biology. Full article
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16 pages, 5426 KiB  
Article
Relationship between East Asian Cold Surges and Synoptic Patterns: A New Coupling Framework
by Anupam Kumar, Edmond Y.M. Lo and Adam D. Switzer
Climate 2019, 7(2), 30; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020030 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5477
Abstract
Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, impacting natural ecosystems and over 100 million individuals. The impact of such extreme CSEs as driven by synoptic systems is direct and immediate. Changes in large-scale [...] Read more.
Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, impacting natural ecosystems and over 100 million individuals. The impact of such extreme CSEs as driven by synoptic systems is direct and immediate. Changes in large-scale synoptic patterns as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Defying a straightforward analysis, semi-permanent atmospheric systems such as the Siberian High (SH), influencing large-scale synoptic patterns, make the atmospheric circulation highly variable and assessment of CSE onset difficult. Rather varied region-specific metrics are currently adopted for predicting CSE occurrence locally but the fundamental understanding of the onset of CSEs continues to be a major challenge. Based on an analysis of monthly synoptic patterns for three unusual CSEs in East Asia and further extended for eight strong to extreme CSEs, we propose a new coupling framework for an improved understanding and interpretation of the atmosphere dynamics driving CSE onset. The coupling framework involves linkages between the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and Jet Stream. We also present the first meteorological scale for categorizing the intensity of such unusual CSEs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Climate Niche Models)
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16 pages, 1466 KiB  
Article
Mainstreaming Climate Change into the EIA Process in Nigeria: Perspectives from Projects in the Niger Delta Region
by Saheed Matemilola, Oludare H. Adedeji, Isa Elegbede and Fatima Kies
Climate 2019, 7(2), 29; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020029 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 7239
Abstract
Climate change incorporation in environmental assessment is a growing research area, particularly following the Paris agreement. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is considered in many quarters to be an important tool in factoring climate-related components in the planning and design of a project. However, [...] Read more.
Climate change incorporation in environmental assessment is a growing research area, particularly following the Paris agreement. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is considered in many quarters to be an important tool in factoring climate-related components in the planning and design of a project. However, many recent researches have shown that EIA has, so far, struggled in the attempt to incorporate climate change into its procedures. This study is an attempt to evaluate the level of consideration of climate change in the EIA process in Nigeria, with particular focus on the Niger Delta region. The result of this quantitative research shows that there is a poor political will to address climate change, as reflected in the absence of climate change requirements in the EIA guidelines of Nigeria. Although, there is a growing trend in the pattern of consideration of climate change in the EIA procedures, the overall level of consideration is still a far cry from the requirements if EIA is to be considered to be an important tool in addressing challenges of climate change in Nigeria. Full article
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18 pages, 290 KiB  
Article
What Can Policy-Makers Do to Increase the Effectiveness of Building Renovation Subsidies?
by Sibylle Studer and Stefan Rieder
Climate 2019, 7(2), 28; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020028 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3350
Abstract
Heating is responsible for a substantial share of global energy consumption and still relies strongly on fossil fuels. In order to reduce energy consumption for heating, subsidies for building renovations are a common policy measure in Europe. Policy makers often combine them with [...] Read more.
Heating is responsible for a substantial share of global energy consumption and still relies strongly on fossil fuels. In order to reduce energy consumption for heating, subsidies for building renovations are a common policy measure in Europe. Policy makers often combine them with information and advice measures. Policy mixes of this kind have been acknowledged widely in the literature, but their effectiveness needs further empirical examination. Based on a survey of the recipients of renovation subsidies and on four focus groups, we examine the (cost) effectiveness of subsidies, as follows: The effectiveness of renovation subsidies was measured by the extent to which receiving subsidies contributed either to the decision to renovate at all, or to the decision to enhance the quality or scope of the renovation. Fifty percent of the recipients surveyed reported that the subsidies contributed to a more energy-efficient renovation than was initially intended. The other fifty percent must be considered as free riders. Multivariate analyses further show that homeowners who used advice services and attributed outstandingly positive characteristics to the policy implementer were more likely to spend subsidies to improve energy efficiency. The findings demonstrate the importance of applying a combination of financial and persuasive policy measures. Additionally, they illustrate the importance of non-financial and non-technical factors, such as the communication competencies of the implementer, when designing policy measures. Full article
22 pages, 6797 KiB  
Article
Constraints to Vegetation Growth Reduced by Region-Specific Changes in Seasonal Climate
by Hirofumi Hashimoto, Ramakrishna R. Nemani, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Andrew R. Michaelis, Sangram Ganguly, Weile Wang, Cristina Milesi, Ryan Eastman, Tsengdar Lee and Ranga Myneni
Climate 2019, 7(2), 27; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020027 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 4538
Abstract
We qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the factors related to vegetation growth using Earth system models and corroborated the results with historical climate observations. The Earth system models showed a systematic greening by the late 21st century, including increases of up to 100% in [...] Read more.
We qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the factors related to vegetation growth using Earth system models and corroborated the results with historical climate observations. The Earth system models showed a systematic greening by the late 21st century, including increases of up to 100% in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and 60% in Leaf Area Index (LAI). A subset of models revealed that the radiative effects of CO2 largely control changes in climate, but that the CO2 fertilization effect dominates the greening. The ensemble of Earth system model experiments revealed that the feedback of surface temperature contributed to 17% of GPP increase in temperature-limited regions, and radiation increase accounted for a 7% increase of GPP in radiation-limited areas. These effects are corroborated by historical observations. For example, observations confirm that cloud cover has decreased over most land areas in the last three decades, consistent with a CO2-induced reduction in transpiration. Our results suggest that vegetation may thrive in the starkly different climate expected over the coming decades, but only if plants harvest the sort of hypothesized physiological benefits of higher CO2 depicted by current Earth system models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)
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24 pages, 3420 KiB  
Article
Outdoor Air Temperature Measurement: A Semi-Empirical Model to Characterize Shelter Performance
by Jérémy Bernard, Pascal Kéravec, Benjamin Morille, Erwan Bocher, Marjorie Musy and Isabelle Calmet
Climate 2019, 7(2), 26; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020026 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3230
Abstract
Shelters used to protect air temperature sensors from solar radiation induce a measurement error. This work presents a semi-empirical model based on meteorological variables to evaluate this error. The model equation is based on the analytical solution of a simplified energy balance performed [...] Read more.
Shelters used to protect air temperature sensors from solar radiation induce a measurement error. This work presents a semi-empirical model based on meteorological variables to evaluate this error. The model equation is based on the analytical solution of a simplified energy balance performed on a naturally ventilated shelter. Two main physical error causes are identified from this equation: one is due to the shelter response time and the other is due to its solar radiation sensitivity. A shelter intercomparison measurement campaign performed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is used to perform a non-linear regression of the model coefficients. The regression coefficient values obtained for each shelter are found to be consistent with their expected physical behavior. They are then used to simply classify shelters according to their response time and radiation sensitivity characteristics. Finally, the ability of the model to estimate the temperature error within a given shelter is assessed and compared to the one of two existing models (proposed by Cheng and by Nakamura). For low-response-time shelters, our results reduce the root mean square error by about 15% (0.07 K) on average when compared with other compensation schemes. Full article
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14 pages, 5593 KiB  
Article
A Modeling Investigation of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Spring: The Linkage between Extreme Weather and Arctic Sea Ice Forcing
by Soumik Basu, Xiangdong Zhang and Zhaomin Wang
Climate 2019, 7(2), 25; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020025 - 31 Jan 2019
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4048
Abstract
Arctic sea ice exhibits rapid reductions and large fluctuations during recent decades in conjunction with a warming climate. Arctic sea ice shows a prominent seasonal cycle with the maximum extent in spring and the minimum extent in fall. In this study a suite [...] Read more.
Arctic sea ice exhibits rapid reductions and large fluctuations during recent decades in conjunction with a warming climate. Arctic sea ice shows a prominent seasonal cycle with the maximum extent in spring and the minimum extent in fall. In this study a suite of modeling experiments, which were solely forced with observed time-varying sea-ice concentration for spring 1979 to 2008 was conducted using NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model to identify sea ice impacts on extratropical storms and associated surface climate parameters when they at the peak of their seasonal variability. Storms are the linkage between the large-scale circulation changes, forced by Arctic sea ice and local extreme weather events through strong winds, high precipitation, and high/low air temperature. In this study, a storm identification and tracking algorithm indicates that reduced sea-ice cover enhances Arctic storm activity. As a consequence, surface climate parameters such as surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation increases in spring over the Arctic. The changes in the Arctic have a direct and indirect effect on the extratropical storm activity over the mid-latitudes. In contrast to the Arctic, storm activity weakens over Eurasia in the years with less sea ice. Further analysis of the surface climate indicates a warmer and dryer Eurasia for years with reduced sea ice. Full article
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20 pages, 10979 KiB  
Article
Spatial Distribution of the Mexican Daisy, Erigeron karvinskianus, in New Zealand under Climate Change
by Lauren Hannah, Glenn Aguilar and Dan Blanchon
Climate 2019, 7(2), 24; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020024 - 30 Jan 2019
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 6153
Abstract
The invasive species Erigeron karvinskianus or Mexican daisy is considered a significant weed that impacts native forest restoration efforts in New Zealand. Mapping the potential distribution of this species under current and future predicted climatic conditions provides managers with relevant information for developing [...] Read more.
The invasive species Erigeron karvinskianus or Mexican daisy is considered a significant weed that impacts native forest restoration efforts in New Zealand. Mapping the potential distribution of this species under current and future predicted climatic conditions provides managers with relevant information for developing appropriate management strategies. Using occurrences available from global and local databases, spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed using geostatistical tools in ArcMap to characterize current distribution. Species distribution modeling (SDM) using Maxent was conducted to determine the potential spatial distribution of E. karvinskianus worldwide and in New Zealand with projections into future climate conditions. Potential habitat suitability under future climatic conditions were simulated using greenhouse gas emission trajectories under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) models RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 for years 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data were processed to minimize redundancy and spatial autocorrelation; non-correlated environmental variables were determined to minimize bias and ensure robust models. Kernel density, hotspot and cluster analysis of outliers show that populated areas of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch have significantly greater concentrations of E. karvinskianus. Species distribution modeling results find an increase in the expansion of range with higher RCP values, and plots of centroids show a southward movement of predicted range for the species. Full article
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15 pages, 1350 KiB  
Article
High Variation in Resource Allocation Strategies among 11 Indian Wheat (Triticum aestivum) Cultivars Growing in High Ozone Environment
by Ashutosh K. Pandey, Baisakhi Majumder, Sarita Keski-Saari, Sari Kontunen-Soppela, Vivek Pandey and Elina Oksanen
Climate 2019, 7(2), 23; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020023 - 28 Jan 2019
Cited by 25 | Viewed by 4262
Abstract
Eleven local cultivars of wheat (Triticum aestivum) were chosen to study the effect of ambient ozone (O3) concentration in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India at two high-ozone experimental sites by using 300 ppm of Ethylenediurea (EDU) as a [...] Read more.
Eleven local cultivars of wheat (Triticum aestivum) were chosen to study the effect of ambient ozone (O3) concentration in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India at two high-ozone experimental sites by using 300 ppm of Ethylenediurea (EDU) as a chemical protectant against O3. The O3 level was more than double the critical threshold reported for wheat grain production (AOT40 8.66 ppm h). EDU-grown plants had higher grain yield, biomass, stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, less lipid peroxidation, changes in superoxide dismutase and catalase activities, changes in content of oxidized and reduced glutathione compared to non-EDU plants, thus indicating the severity of O3 induced productivity loss. Based on the yield at two different growing sites, the cultivars could be addressed in four response groups: (a) generally well-adapted cultivars (above-average yield); (b) poorly-adapted (below-average yield); (c) adapted to low-yield environment (below-average yield); and (d) sensitive cultivars (adapted to high-yield environment). EDU responses were dependent on the cultivar, the developmental phase (vegetative, flowering and harvest) and the experimental site. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Pollution and Plant Ecosystems)
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22 pages, 7267 KiB  
Article
Peculiarities of Long-Term Changes in Air Temperatures Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Coastal Area
by Agu Eensaar
Climate 2019, 7(2), 22; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020022 - 27 Jan 2019
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4247
Abstract
The peculiarities of the long-term change of the annual and monthly average air temperatures until 2017 in five cities of the coastal area of the Central Baltic region—Stockholm, Tallinn, Riga, Helsinki, and Saint Petersburg—were studied. The anomalies of the annual and monthly average [...] Read more.
The peculiarities of the long-term change of the annual and monthly average air temperatures until 2017 in five cities of the coastal area of the Central Baltic region—Stockholm, Tallinn, Riga, Helsinki, and Saint Petersburg—were studied. The anomalies of the annual and monthly average air temperatures in relation to the average characteristics 1961–1990 were analyzed. The trends in the air temperature changes during 1980–2017, which come to 0.5 °C per ten years, have been found in the cities of the Central Baltic coastal area. The average air temperature in the Central Baltic cities has grown faster than the global and northern hemisphere. For the longer period of 1850–2017, the average annual rise of air temperature was within the range of 0.1 °C per ten years. The rise in temperature in different months is different, and the rise of the of the average temperature in the summer period has not occurred (at a significance level of 0.05). With the analysis of the frequency distributions of the average annual air temperatures and Welch’s t-test, it is demonstrated that the air temperature (at a significance level of 0.05) has risen in all the months only in Saint Petersburg during 1901–2017 in comparison to the 19th century. There has been no reliable rise of the air temperature during the century in February and from June to September in Riga, from June to October in Helsinki, from June to September in Stockholm, and in August and September in Tallinn. It was found that the average air temperature trends have a certain annual course. The air temperature has risen most in March and April, reaching 0.09 °C (Stockholm, Tallinn) up to 0.23 °C (Saint Petersburg) per ten years. From June to September, the rise of air temperature is considerably lower, remaining below 0.04 °C per ten years. The changes in air temperature are small during the summer and mid-winter; the air temperature has significantly risen in autumn and spring. Full article
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16 pages, 4312 KiB  
Article
A Physical–Mathematical Approach to Climate Change Effects through Stochastic Resonance
by Maria Teresa Caccamo and Salvatore Magazù
Climate 2019, 7(2), 21; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020021 - 27 Jan 2019
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3871
Abstract
The aim of this work is to study the effects induced by climate changes in the framework of the stochastic resonance approach. First, a wavelet cross-correlation analysis on Earth temperature data concerning the last 5,500,000 years is performed; this analysis confirms a correlation [...] Read more.
The aim of this work is to study the effects induced by climate changes in the framework of the stochastic resonance approach. First, a wavelet cross-correlation analysis on Earth temperature data concerning the last 5,500,000 years is performed; this analysis confirms a correlation between the planet’s temperature and the 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000-year periods of the Milankovitch orbital cycles. Then, the stochastic resonance model is invoked. Specific attention is given to the study of the impact of the registered global temperature increase within the stochastic model. Further, a numerical simulation has been performed, based on: (1) A double-well potential, (2) an external periodic modulation, corresponding to the orbit eccentricity cycle, and (3) an increased value of the global Earth temperature. The effect of temperature increase represents one of the novelties introduced in the present study and is determined by downshifting the interaction potential used within the stochastic resonance model. The numeric simulation results show that, for simulated increasing values of the global temperature, the double-well system triggers changes, while at higher temperatures (as in the case of the absence of a global temperature increase although with a different threshold) the system goes into a chaotic regime. The wavelet analysis allows characterization of the stochastic resonance condition through the evaluation of the signal-to-noise ratio. On the basis of the obtained findings, we hypothesize that the global temperature increase can suppress, on a large time scale corresponding to glacial cycles, the external periodic modulation effects and, hence, the glacial cycles. Full article
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13 pages, 3491 KiB  
Article
Influence of Green Spaces on Outdoors Thermal Comfort—Structured Experiment in a Mediterranean Climate
by Artur Gonçalves, António Castro Ribeiro, Filipe Maia, Luís Nunes and Manuel Feliciano
Climate 2019, 7(2), 20; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020020 - 26 Jan 2019
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4562
Abstract
As a growing part of the global population lives in cities, green spaces are an essential asset for improving quality of life. This study aims to address the role of green spaces in providing favorable thermal comfort conditions for the use of outdoor [...] Read more.
As a growing part of the global population lives in cities, green spaces are an essential asset for improving quality of life. This study aims to address the role of green spaces in providing favorable thermal comfort conditions for the use of outdoor spaces. The research methodology consisted of a structured experiment where a defined set of individuals from different age groups was exposed to differentiated microclimate conditions. Four nearby locations were considered, ranging from a stone-paved surface without shade to high tree canopy coverage over grass. This experiment took place in three different days in summer and early autumn conditions, with a total of 432 questionnaires. Results show a wide range of thermal sensations found during this experiment, while more favorable thermal sensations were found in shaded locations. To investigate the role of prevailing meteorological and personal conditions on thermal sensations, multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied. Results show the influence of air temperature, global radiation, wind speed, and interviewees’ gender. As meteorological variables were influenced by the diverse contexts found within a close distance inside the studied green space, results from this structured experiment suggest the need for micrometeorological diversity in the local context as a means to promote greater adaptive opportunities for green spaces users. Full article
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12 pages, 3185 KiB  
Communication
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Drive the Declines of Saline Lakes: A Showcase of the Great Salt Lake
by Qingmin Meng
Climate 2019, 7(2), 19; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020019 - 23 Jan 2019
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 6233
Abstract
A viewpoint of a temporal trend with an extremely changing point analysis is proposed to analyze and characterize the so-called current declines of the world’s saline lakes. A temporal trend of a hydrological or climate variable is statistically tested by regressing it against [...] Read more.
A viewpoint of a temporal trend with an extremely changing point analysis is proposed to analyze and characterize the so-called current declines of the world’s saline lakes. A temporal trend of a hydrological or climate variable is statistically tested by regressing it against time; if the regression is statistically significant, an ascending or declining trend exists. The extremely changing points can be found out by using the mean of a variable, adding or subtracting two times of its standard deviation (SD) for extremely high values and extremely low values, respectively. Applying the temporal trend method to the Great Salt Lake’s (GSL) relationship between its surface levels and precipitation/temperature in the last century, we conclude that climate changes, especially local warming and extreme weather including both precipitation and temperature, drive the dynamics (increases and declines) of the GSL surface levels. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate-Change on Water Resources)
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24 pages, 7095 KiB  
Article
Influence of Bias Correction Methods on Simulated Köppen−Geiger Climate Zones in Europe
by Beáta Szabó-Takács, Aleš Farda, Petr Skalák and Jan Meitner
Climate 2019, 7(2), 18; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli7020018 - 22 Jan 2019
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4514
Abstract
Our goal was to investigate the influence of bias correction methods on climate simulations over the European domain. We calculated the Köppen−Geiger climate classification using five individual regional climate models (RCM) of the ENSEMBLES project in the European domain during the period 1961−1990. [...] Read more.
Our goal was to investigate the influence of bias correction methods on climate simulations over the European domain. We calculated the Köppen−Geiger climate classification using five individual regional climate models (RCM) of the ENSEMBLES project in the European domain during the period 1961−1990. The simulated precipitation and temperature data were corrected using the European daily high-resolution gridded dataset (E-OBS) observed data by five methods: (i) the empirical quantile mapping of precipitation and temperature, (ii) the quantile mapping of precipitation and temperature based on gamma and Generalized Pareto Distribution of precipitation, (iii) local intensity scaling, (iv) the power transformation of precipitation and (v) the variance scaling of temperature bias corrections. The individual bias correction methods had a significant effect on the climate classification, but the degree of this effect varied among the RCMs. Our results on the performance of bias correction differ from previous results described in the literature where these corrections were implemented over river catchments. We conclude that the effect of bias correction may depend on the region of model domain. These results suggest that distribution free bias correction approaches are the most suitable for large domain sizes such as the pan-European domain. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)
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