Climate, Volume 8, Issue 9 (September 2020) – 7 articles

Climate change and shrinking of the Aral Sea have significantly affected the region’s temperature variations. Observed interannual changes in Uzbekistan’s air temperature compared to the duration of synoptic weather types (SWT) in Middle Asia were analyzed. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistical test and climate trends coefficients were used to identify trend characteristics of observed temperature from 1961–2016 to the baseline period of 1961–1990. The results showed increasing temperature trends average to 1 °C in warm and cold half years over Uzbekistan. The 1991–2016 decadal temperature trend ranged from 0.25 °C/decade in the northwest to 0.52 °C/decade in the center, especially pronounced in the oasis and Aral Sea zones. There were also significant changes in the structure of regional SWT. The main difference in the structure of SWT in Middle Asia relative to the baseline period was expressed in a decrease of cold mass invasion duration from 113.4 to 76.1 days and an increase in low-gradient baric field duration from 65.8 to 134.6 days. The process of anthropogenic warming, which began in Uzbekistan in the 1960s of the twentieth century, has accelerated from the mid-1970s with a higher mean annual air temperature than the baseline period’s climate normals (1961–1990) and is associated with changes in the regional SWT over Middle Asia. Full article

Field experiments were conducted to test different agronomic practices, such as soil cultivation, fertilization, and pest and weed management, in highly controlled plot cultivation. The inter-annual yields and the interpretation of such experiments is highly affected by the variability of climatic conditions and fertilization level. We examined the effect of different climate indices, such as winterkill, late spring frost, early autumn frost, different drought parameters, precipitation-free periods, and heat-related stress, on winter wheat yield. This experiment was conducted in an agricultural area with highly fertile conditions, characterized by a high available water capacity and considerable C and N contents in lower soil depths. Residuals were calculated from long-term yield trends with a validated method (time series autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA) and these served as base values for the detection of climate-induced, short-term, and inter-annual variations. In a subsequent step, the real yield values were used for their derivations from climate factors. Residuals and real yields were correlated with climate variables in multiple regression of quantitative analyses of the yield sensitivity. The inter-annual variation of yields varied considerably within the observation period. However, the variation was less an effect of the climatic conditions during the main growing time periods, being more of an effect of the prevailing climate conditions in the winter period as well as of the transition periods from winter to the warmer season and vice versa. The high storage capacity of plant available water exerted a remarkable dampening effect on drought-induced effects during the main vegetation periods. Increasing fertilization led to increased susceptibility to drought stress. The results indicate a changed picture of the yield development in these fertile locations. Full article

Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but are fixed in space and vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. Myanmar is exceptionally rich in biodiversity but has a small protected area system. This study aimed to assess the potential vulnerability of this system to climate change. In the absence of good biodiversity data, we used a spatial modeling approach based on a statistically derived bioclimatic stratification (the Global Environmental Stratification, GEnS) to understand the spatial implications of projected climate change for Myanmar’s protected area system by 2050 and 2070. Nine bioclimatic zones and 41 strata were recognized in Myanmar, but their representation in the protected area system varied greatly, with the driest zones especially underrepresented. Under climate change, most zones will shift upslope, with some protected areas projected to change entirely to a new bioclimate. Potential impacts on biodiversity include mountaintop extinctions of species endemic to isolated peaks, loss of climate specialists from small protected areas and those with little elevational range, and woody encroachment into savannas and open forests as a result of both climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂. Myanmar needs larger, better connected, and more representative protected areas, but political, social, and economic problems make this difficult. Full article

This paper presents the results of a systematic literature review of climate change adaptation and resilience in coastal agriculture in Bangladesh. It explores the existing adaptation measures against climatic stresses. It investigates the extent of resilience-building by the use of these adaptation measures and identifies major challenges that hinder the adaptation process within the country. The review was conducted by following the systematic methods of the protocol of Preferred Items for Systematic Review Recommendations (PRISMA) to comprehensively synthesize, evaluate and track scientific literature on climate-resilient agriculture in coastal Bangladesh. It considered peer-reviewed English language articles from the databases Scopus, Web of Science and Science Direct between the years 2000 and 2018. A total of 54 articles were selected following the four major steps of a systematic review, i.e., identification, screening, eligibility and inclusion. Adaptation measures identified in the review were grouped into different themes: Agricultural adaptation, alternative livelihoods, infrastructure development, technological advancement, ecosystem management and policy development. The review revealed that within the adaptation and resilience literature for coastal Bangladesh, maladaptation, gender imbalance and the notable absence of studies of island communities were gaps that require future research. Full article

Evaluating climate change impacts and the suitability of potential land resources is crucial for sustainable irrigated agricultural systems. This study applied a multi-criteria analysis supported by the Geographic Information System (GIS) application to produce irrigation suitability maps for the Anger River basin’s (Ethiopia) irrigation command area to optimize its irrigation system. Six irrigation suitability factors, such as distance to water sources (rivers), slope, land use/land cover, soil texture, drainage, and depth, including climate change impacts, were used. These factors were spatially analyzed using a comparison matrix and overlying the factors with 30 m resolutions to estimate the potential irrigable area. About 40% of the study area was classified as moderately to highly suitable for surface water irrigation systems. Moreover, we found that a large proportion of the study area is suitable for surface irrigation system, suggesting the relevance of implementing an enhanced irrigation system for improving the surface irrigation water productivity of the basin. However, future climate change is predicted to negatively affect the irrigation suitable area due to water scarcity. Therefore, this study provides useful information on the irrigation suitability and potential of the study area that could be used to facilitate the water resource development and food security plans. Full article

In the Upper Colorado River Basin, agriculture is a major contributor to Utah’s economy, which may be stressed due to the changing climate. In this study, two data-mining techniques and interview data are used to explore how climate variability affects agricultural production and the way the farmers have been adapting their practices to these changes. In the first part of the study, we used multilinear regression and random forest regression to understand the relationship between climate and agricultural production using temperature, precipitation, water availability, hay production, and cattle herd size. The quantitative results showed weak relations among variables. In the second part of the study, we interviewed ranchers to fill the gaps in the quantitative analysis. Over the 35 years (1981–2015), the quantitative analysis shows that temperature has affected cattle and hay production more than precipitation. Among non-climatic variables, resource availability and commodity prices are the most important factors that influence year-to-year production. Farmers are well-aware of these effects and have adapted accordingly. They have changed irrigation practices, cropping patterns, and are experimenting to produce a hybrid species of cattle, that are resilient to a hotter temperature and can use a wider variety of forage. Full article

Equivalent temperature (T_E), which incorporates both dry (surface air temperature, T) and moist heat content associated with atmospheric moisture, is a better indicator of overall atmospheric heat content compared to T alone. This paper investigates the impacts of different types of air masses on T_E during the growing season (April–September). The study used data from the Kentucky Mesonet for this purpose. The growing season was divided into early (April–May), mid (June–July), and late (August–September). Analysis suggests that T_E for moist tropical (MT) air mass was as high as 61 and 81 °C for the early and mid-growing season, respectively. Further analysis suggests that T_E for different parts of the growing seasons were statistically significantly different from each other. In addition, T_E for different air masses was also statistically significantly different from each other. The difference between T_E and T (i.e. T_E-T) is smaller under dry atmospheric conditions but larger under moist conditions. For example, in Barren County, the lowest difference (20–10 °C) was 10 °C. It was reported on 18 April 2010, a dry weather day. On the other hand, the highest difference for this site was 48 °C and was reported on 11 August 2010, a humid day. Full article