Climate, Volume 9, Issue 6 (June 2021) – 15 articles

Over the last few decades, Urban Heat Stress (UHS) has become a crucial concern of scientists and policy-makers. Many projects have been implemented to mitigate Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects using nature-based solutions. However, decision-making and selecting an adequate framework are difficult because of complex interactions between natural, social, economic and built environments. This paper contributes to the UHI issue by: (i) identifying the most important key factors of a Decision Support Tool (DST) used for urban heat mitigation, (ii) presenting multi-criteria methods applied to urban heat resilience, (iii) reviewing existing spatial and non-spatial DSTs, (iv) and analyzing, classifying and ranking DSTs. It aims to help decision-makers through an overview of the pros and cons of existing DSTs and indicate which tool is providing maximum support for choosing and planning heat resilience measures from the designing phase to the heat mitigation phase. This review shows that Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used for any pilot site and the criteria can be adapted to the given location accordingly. It also highlights that GIS-based spatial tools have an effective decision support system (DSS) because they offer a quick assessment of interventions and predict long-term effects of urban heat. Through a comparative study using specific chosen criteria, we conclude that the DSS tool is well suited and fulfils many prerequisites to support new policies and interventions to mitigate UHS. Full article

South Korea had the highest annual average PM2.5 exposure levels in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2019, and air pollution is consistently ranked as citizens’ top environmental concern. South Korea is also one of the world’s top ten emitter countries of CO₂. Co-benefit mitigation policies can address both air pollution and climate change. Utilizing an alternative co-benefit approach, which views air pollution reduction as the primary goal and climate change mitigation as secondary, this research conducts a scenario analysis to forecast the health and climate benefits of fuel substitution in South Korea’s electricity generation sector. Health benefits are calculated by avoided premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). The study finds that use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of coal over the 2022–2050 period would result in an average of 116 fewer premature deaths (1152 YLL) and 80.8 MTCO₂e fewer emissions per year. Over the same period, maintaining and maximizing the use of its nuclear energy capacity, combined with replacing coal use with LNG, would result in an average of 161 fewer premature deaths (1608 YLL) and 123.7 MTCO₂e fewer emissions per year. Full article

Cities are increasingly adopting potentially sustainable climate plans. Integrating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into these plans could help stabilize the climate while generating jobs, narrowing equity gaps, fostering innovation, and delivering other sustainability benefits. Yet, how much cities are integrating the SDGs into climate plans remains poorly understood. This article shed light on this question with a text analysis of SDG “keywords” in climate plans for two British and two Japanese cities. The results revealed that none of the surveyed cities have connected climate with socioeconomic priorities covered in SDG1 (poverty), SDG8 (employment), SDG5 (gender), and SDG10 (inequalities). Meanwhile, the United Kingdom cities made more connections between climate and responsible consumption and production (SDG12) than the Japanese cities. Further, Kyoto, Japan shares a climate-SDGs linkages profile that resembles the United Kingdom cities more than Kawasaki. Though not without limitations, text analysis can facilitate the city-to-city peer learning needed to make urban climate plans sustainable within and across countries. Full article

To what extent has the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) succeeded in its ambition to shape a more diverse environmental expertise? In what ways are diversity important to the IPCC? What purposes does diversity serve in the IPCC’s production of global environmental assessments and thus environmental knowledge in general? These questions are explored by analyzing quantitative demographic data of the latest two assessment cycles (AR5 and AR6) and qualitative data from a semi-structured interview study with IPCC experts. The analysis shows that there have been improvements in diversity in recent years across measures of gender (women comprising 34% of authors in AR6 compared to 21% in AR5), regional representation and the proportion of authors from developing countries (35% in AR6 compared to 31% in AR5). These improvements have not, however, been distributed evenly when looking at the seniority of authors, nor when comparing across working groups, with WGI (the physical science) remaining much less diverse (28% female authors) than WGII (impacts) (41% female authors) and WGIII (mitigation) (32% female authors). The interviews suggest that rather than viewing diversity as a challenge it should be viewed as an opportunity to build capacity. Distinctions between scientific expertise and ‘diversity of voice’ need to be reconsidered in terms of both the substantive and instrumental value that a diverse range of knowledge, experience and skills add to the process of the scientific assessment of climate knowledge. In the concluding discussion, three points are raised: (i) the issue of diversity will probably grow in importance due to the fact that the complex task of transforming society has increasingly come into focus; (ii) the issue of diversity will be crucial for IPCC to maintain and develop its capacity to make assessments; (iii) the issue of diversity should not be reduced to simply a means for improving the process of making assessments, but should also improve the outcomes of the assessments. Full article

It is important to understand variations in hydro-meteorological variables to provide crucial information for water resource management and agricultural operation. This study aims to provide comprehensive investigations of hydroclimatic variability in the Bilate watershed for the period 1986 to 2015. Coefficient of variation (CV) and the standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to assess the variability of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow. Changing point detection, the Mann–Kendell test, and the Sen’s slope estimator were employed to detect shifting points and trends, respectively. Rainfall and streamflow exhibited higher variability in the Bega (dry) and Belg (minor rainy) seasons than in the Kiremt (main rainy) season. Temperature showed an upward shift of 0.91 °C in the early 1990s. Reduction in rainfall (−11%) and streamflow (−42%) were found after changing points around late 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The changing points detected were likely related to the ENSO episodes. The trend test indicated a significant rise in temperature with a faster increase in the minimum temperature (0.06 °C/year) than the maximum temperature (0.02 °C/year). Both annual mean rainfall and streamflow showed significant decreasing trends of 8.32 mm/year and 3.64 mm/year, respectively. With significant increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall, the watershed has been experiencing a decline in streamflow and a shortage of available water. Adaptation measures should be developed by taking the increasing temperature and the declining and erratic nature of rainfall into consideration for water management and agricultural activities. Full article

The main objective of this paper is to measure the level of household resilience to cyclone and storm surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. We draw on four general disaster frameworks in terms of addressing household-level resilience to cyclones and storm surges. We use a composite indicator approach organized around four components: (1) household infrastructure (HI); (2) household economic capacity (HEC); (3) household self-organization and learning (HSoL), and; (4) social safety nets (SSN). Drawing on a household survey (N = 1188) in nine coastal union parishads in coastal Bangladesh purposively selected as among the most vulnerable places in the world, we use principal components analysis applied to a standardized form of the survey data that identifies key household resilience features. These household index scores can be used for the assessment and monitoring of household capacities, training, and other efforts to improve household cyclone resilience. Our innovative methodological approach allows us to (a) identify patterns and reveal the underlying factors that accurately describe the variation in the data; (b) reduce a large number of variables to a much smaller number of core dimensions of household resilience, and (c) to detect spatial variations in resilience among communities. Aggregated to the community level, our new index reveals significant differences in community cyclone resilience in different areas of the coastal region. In this way, we can show that shoreline and island communities, in particular, have significant deficits in terms of household resilience, which seem to be mutually reinforcing one another and making for lower resilience. Full article

This study investigated the trends and variability of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature data over southern Ethiopia using time series analysis for the period 1983–2016. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitations Concentration Index (PCI), and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to examine rainfall variability and develop drought indices over southern Ethiopia. Temporal changes of rainfall trends over the study period were detected using Mann Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed that the region experienced considerable rainfall variability and change that resulted in extended periods of drought and flood events within the study period. Results from SAI and SPI indicated an inter-annual rainfall variability with the proportions of years with below and above normal rainfall being estimated at 56% and 44% respectively. Results from the Mann Kendall trend test indicated an increasing trend of annual rainfall, Kiremt (summer) and Bega (dry) seasons whereas the Belg (spring) season rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05). The annual rate of change for mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was found to be 0.042 °C, 0.027 °C, and 0.056 °C respectively. The findings from this study can be used by decision-makers in taking appropriate measures and interventions to avert the risks posed by changes in rainfall and temperature variability including extremes in order to enhance community adaptation and mitigation strategies in southern Ethiopia. Full article

Energy efficiency and conservation policy continues to take the proverbial “backseat” to energy access and renewable energy policy discourses in small island developing states (SIDS). In this study, we intend to motivate the energy efficiency policy agenda to encourage more action. To do so, we review the current energy challenges in SIDS and the role of energy efficiency in addressing those challenges, discuss the trends in the rate of improvement in energy efficiency in SIDS, exhibit an updated list of energy efficiency programs and initiatives being implemented in SIDS, consider barriers to energy efficiency implementation and set forth a policy-focused plan to accelerate action. Barriers for the adoption of energy efficiency policies continue to be institutional and policy- and governance-oriented; economic and financial; informational; and technical. A four-pronged policy advancement approach tackling initiation, incentivization, information and investment is recommended to tap the potential gains from energy efficiency. We attempt here, based on our findings, to offer a more practically executable plan of action, focusing squarely on combining institutional arrangements, policy requirements and current energy efficiency affairs in SIDS. Full article

The Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation Index (WASP-Index) was computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales (3-month, 6-month and 12-month) in 1961–2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and between 2021 and 2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The area-mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12-month WASP (12m-WASP) intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3-month WASP (3m-WASP) intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase (mostly the severest events under RCP4.5) but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent 12m-WASP wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase/decrease of the intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry/wet events was found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia (mainly Comunidad Valenciana, Región de Murcia, Andalucía in Spain, Alentejo, and Algarve in Portugal), thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future. This finding corroborates the results of previous studies. Full article

It is undoubtedly clear that climate change is happening, and its adverse impacts could reverse the progress made toward meeting sustainable development goals. The global crisis poses one of the most severe challenges to reducing poverty and existing inequalities, especially in developing countries that are projected to be highly vulnerable to climate variability. However, the education sector provides an untapped opportunity for successful climate change adaptation and mitigation through knowledge and skill acquisitions, and consequently, positive behavioral change. Specifically, education can capacitate individuals and communities to make informed decisions and take practical actions for climate-resilient sustainable development. This study is focused on East Africa, a region whose economy heavily relies on climate-dependent activities. At present, East African governments are already embedding climate change in their school curriculum. However, they lack coherent approaches to leverage climate change education as a tool in their adaptation and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this review explores some of the critical barriers to climate change education and possible opportunities for leveraging learning to promote sustainable development in East Africa. Full article

This work aims to assess water quality for irrigated agriculture, alongside perceptions and adaptations of farmers to climate change in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Climate change is expected to cause a rise in temperature and variability in rainfall in the region, reducing surface water availability and raising dependence on groundwater. The study data come from surveys with 147 farmers living in the Ziway–Shala basin and water quality assessments of 162 samples from groundwater wells and surface water. Most groundwater samples were found to be unsuitable for long term agricultural use due to their high salinity and sodium adsorption ratio, which has implications for soil permeability, as well as elevated bicarbonate, boron and residual sodium carbonate concentrations. The survey data indicate that water sufficiency is a major concern for farmers that leads to frequent crop failures, especially due to erratic and insufficient rainfall. An important adaptation mechanism for farmers is the use of improved crop varieties, but major barriers to adaptation include a lack of access to irrigation water, credit or savings, appropriate seeds, and knowledge or information on weather and climate conditions. Local (development) agents are identified as vital to enhancing farmers’ knowledge of risks and solutions, and extension programs must therefore continue to promote resilience and adaptation in the area. Unfortunately, much of the MER groundwater that could be used to cope with declining viability of rainfed agriculture and surface water availability, is poor in quality. The use of saline groundwater could jeopardize the agricultural sector, and most notably commercial horticulture and floriculture activities. This study highlights the complex nexus of water quality and sufficiency challenges facing the agriculture sector in the region, and should help decision-makers to design feasible strategies for enhancing adaptation and food security. Full article

Coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and its effects may push coastal ecosystems to undergo irreversible changes. This is especially true for shorebirds with the loss of biodiversity and resource-rich habitats to rest, refuel, and breed. To protect these species, it is critical to conduct research related to nature-based Solutions (NbS). Through a scoping review of scientific literature, this paper initially identified 85 articles with various ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies that could help conserve shorebird populations and promote ecotourism. Of these 85 articles, 28 articles had EbA strategies that were examined, with some like coral reefs and mangroves eliminated as they were inappropriate for this region. The scoping review identified four major EbA strategies for the Greater Niagara Region with living shorelines and beach nourishment being the most suitable, especially when combined. These strategies were then evaluated against the eight core principles of nature-based solutions protecting shorebird as well as human wellbeing. Living shoreline strategy was the only one that met all eight NbS principles. As the coastline of the region greatly varies in substrate and development, further research will be needed to decide which EbA strategies would be appropriate for each specific area to ensure their efficacy. Full article

Smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Efforts to enhance farmers’ adaptation to climate change are hindered by lack of information on how they are experiencing and responding to climate change. Therefore, this paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, factors influencing their perceptions, and the impacts and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three to four decades. A list of farmers was obtained from the Agricultural Marketing Cooperative Society (AMCOS) and filtered on the basis of age and farming experience. In order to explore factors influencing household perceptions of climate change, a structured questionnaire was administered to the randomly selected household heads. Data on rainfall and temperature were acquired from Lyamungo and Burka Coffee estate (Northern Highlands zone) and Mbimba and Mbinga (Southern Highlands zone) offices of the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) with the exception of data from Burka Coffee estate, which were acquired from a private operator. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to analyze the data. Farmers’ perceptions were consistent with meteorological data both pointing to significant decline in rainfall and increase in temperature since 1979. Factors such as level of education, farming experience, and access to climate information influenced farmers’ perception on climate change aspects. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance timely and accurate weather information delivery along with developing institutions responsible for education and extension services provision. The focus of education or training should be on attenuating the impacts of climate change through relevant adaptation measures in each coffee-growing region. Full article

This paper deals with the validation of rain rate and wind speed measurements from the High-Altitude Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP), which occurred in September 2013 when the NASA Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle passed over an ocean rain squall line in the Gulf of Mexico near the North Florida coast. The three-dimensional atmospheric rain distribution and the associated ocean surface wind vector field were simultaneously measured by two independent remote sensing and two in situ systems, namely the ground-based National Weather Service Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD); the European Space Agency satellite Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and two instrumented weather buoys. These independent measurements provided the necessary data to calibrate the HIWRAP radar using the measured ocean radar backscatter and to validate the HIWRAP rain and wind vector retrievals against NEXRAD, ASCAT and ocean buoys observations. In addition, this paper presents data processing procedures for the HIWRAP instrument, including the development of a geometric model to collocate time-morphed rain rates from the NEXRAD radar with HIWRAP atmospheric rain profiles. Results of the rain rate intercomparison are presented, and they demonstrate excellent agreement with the NEXRAD time-interpolated rain volume scans. In our analysis, we find that HIWRAP produces wind and rain rates that are consistent with the supporting ground and satellite estimates, thereby providing validation of the geolocation, the calibration, and the geophysical retrieval algorithms for the HIWRAP instrument. Full article

This study estimates the minimum total cost and distributional effects among countries transforming the car fleet in the EU to reduce emissions of carbon dioxides by 2050 by switching from fossil fuel-driven passenger cars to hybrid and electric-driven cars. Minimum cost is estimated using a dynamic optimization model in which costs are calculated as decreases in consumer surplus in the demand for vehicles under given annual increases in travel demand, carbon efficiency and technological improvement of electric cars. Distributional effects are calculated for the cost-effective allocation of costs among the EU member states and UK. Calculations are made for different emission reductions, and the cost for achieving a 60% reduction from the 1990 emission level ranges between 0.13% and 0.61% of the EU’s GDP depending on assumptions about development of travel demand and carbon efficiency. The results indicate a slightly regressive allocation in most scenarios, where the cost share is relatively high for low income countries. Full article