Risks, Volume 9, Issue 9 (September 2021) – 21 articles

This paper aims to analyze the most relevant methods to determine the financial capacity of innovation projects and identify potential ways of their improvement. The research helped to propose an alternative methodology to assess the financial capacity of innovation projects by charting an alternative balance with a minimum scope of data (annual balance sheet data, project term). The authors drew a conclusion concerning the critical role of choices on the methods applied to analyze the financial capacity of innovation projects in the context of different scales and terms of project jobs in an analyzed project and the need for the proposed alternative (estimate or expertise-based) assessment of financial capacity as well as the relevant risks associated with the implementation of the new financial capacity assessment system and the overall risks of the innovation project. These specifically concern the choices of the methods of attribution of indirect costs in innovation projects, composition and scope of criteria to distinguish business processes to manage these processes and constituent operations, the form of a matrix of correspondence for a set of costs by the stages of an innovation project (event-based matrix accounting) and the information model of the objective-based methods of managing an innovation project as an object. Full article

Over the years, several studies have been conducted to identify the impact of various intellectual capital components on the organizational performances. However, most of these works greatly replicated the applications and uses of different intellectual capital components (human, structural, relational, social) without addressing the shortcomings related to their empowerment toward the innovation perception of the organizations. Based on this fact, we comprehensively reviewed the existing literatures that strongly influenced the innovation performance of the financial sector. Standard inclusion and exclusion criteria were used for the critical and systematic evaluation of the past studies. It identified the main limitations of intellectual capital components efficiency in the financial sector that could considerably affect their desired innovation performances in the dynamic and competitive market scenarios. In addition, a correlation was established among the organizational growth of intellectual capital components and innovation performance, leading to positive implications on intellectual capital components development. Full article

We derive a Hattendorff differential equation and a recursion governing the evolution of continuous and discrete time evolution respectively of the variance of the loss at time t random variable given that the state at time t is j, for a multistate Markov insurance model (denoted by ${}^2{\sigma }_t^{\left(j\right)}$). We also show using matrix notation that both models can be easily adapted for use in MATLAB for numerical computations. Full article

The aim of this study is to understand the effect of the recent novel coronavirus pandemic on investor herding behavior in global stock markets. Utilizing a daily newspaper-based index of financial uncertainty associated with infectious diseases, we examine the association between pandemic-induced market uncertainty and herding behavior in a set of 49 global stock markets. More specifically, we study the pattern of cross-sectional market behavior and examine whether the pandemic-induced uncertainty drives directional similarity across the global stock markets that cannot be explained by the standard asset pricing models. Utilizing a time-varying variation of the static herding model, we first identify periods during which herding is detected. We then employ probit models to examine the possible association between pandemic-induced uncertainty and the formation of herding. Our findings show a strong association between herd formation in stock markets and COVID-19 induced market uncertainty. The herding effect of COVID-19 induced market uncertainty is particularly strong for emerging stock markets as well as European PIIGS stock markets that include some of the hardest hit economies in Europe by the pandemic. The findings establish a direct link between the recent pandemic and herd formation among market participants in global financial markets. Considering the evidence that herding behavior can drive security prices away from equilibrium values supported by fundamentals and further contribute to price fluctuations in financial markets, our findings have significant implications for policy makers and investors in their efforts to monitor investor sentiment and mitigate mis-valuations that might occur as a result. Furthermore, the evidence on the behavioral pattern of stock investors in relation to infectious diseases uncertainty can be useful in studying price discovery in stock markets and might help market participants in forming hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk in their investment portfolios. Full article

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of equity options priced at the Zero Lower Bound, i.e., when interest rates are set essentially to zero. We obtain closed form formulas for American options when the Zero Lower Bound policy holds. We perform numerical implementation of American put options written on the stock Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and of related bounds for the optimal exercise. The results show similarities with the corresponding European options priced at the Zero Lower Bound during the COVID-19 crisis. Full article

The aim of this article is to analyze and assess the impact of the pandemic on the finances of households in Poland, compared to other CEE countries (including Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary), with particular emphasis on changes in the level of their savings, which are considered to be the foundation for the development of the indicated research group. There is no doubt that the pandemic had an impact on the situation of households, which is mainly visible in the labor market (rising unemployment), and thus the question arises to what extent have the households’ approaches to financial decisions changed because of this situation? The propensity to save was taken into account as a main aspect of this problem, because it has, among others, a big impact on the financial well-being (in a broader sense). Using the multiple linear regression method, the factors that influence the level of household savings were determined. The results of the research show that these factors are different in the analyzed countries and have a different impact on the level of the explained variable, which is the gross saving rate. The research should also be treated as a preliminary one. It constitutes a contribution to in-depth research with the use of more sophisticated statistical and econometric methods, which will allow for the better assessment of the examined issue. Full article

Under the growing complexity of manufacturing processes, supply chains, markets and stakeholder expectations, enterprise risk management (ERM) has become an extremely important, probably yet still underdeveloped, management function. Enterprise risk management theory and practice should keep pace with the changes of rapidly changing environments, through new, more adaptive approaches. The article presents some of the results of a longitudinal survey at Eastern-European manufacturing organizations made on risk management techniques. The goal of the research was the study of risk management techniques under rapidly changing environments in highly standardized industries (pharmaceutical and automotive). The research was focused on the role of human resources in handling technology-related/operational risks and to what extent a decentralized risk management is present. Multidisciplinary cooperation, the selection of the teams, communication and the decision making within the team was analysed. During our research few common risk analysis routines were identified at the studied organizations. Through an interview-based qualitative survey, possible weaknesses of common risk identification techniques were identified. The article presents three risk evaluation methods with the same features. The answers provided during the interviews indicate that risk assessment techniques are mostly centralized (coordinated by a single person/unit), linear (based on If-Then construct) and rigid, definitively not suitable when quick changes are in the organization environment. Full article

Assessing and reducing compliance risks can now be considered one of the core criteria for business success. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is widely used in engineering, its application in the financial sector is quite novel, primarily related to compliance risk assessment. This paper presents the results of exploratory research based on the potential application of FMEA in a focus group of compliance experts at one of the largest Central and Eastern European commercial banks. This study aims to establish a process for assessing compliance risks that builds on the strengths of both the qualitative and quantitative assessment methods. Applying FMEA based on a nominal group technique and further statistical analysis provides an opportunity to compare expert assessments and the consensus level of the participants. As a result, the similarity or difference of the assessment patterns can be quantified, providing objective feedback on the evaluation. Finally, this paper proposes lifting the detectability of failures as an evaluation dimension to the same level of importance as the probability and impact of non-compliance and using agreement testing statistical methods. Full article

Cryptocurrency literature is increasing rapidly nowadays. Particularly, the role of the cryptocurrency market as a risk management avenue has got the attention of researchers. However, it is an immature asset class and requires gaps in current literature for future research directions. This research provides a systematic review of the vast range empirical literature based on the cryptocurrency market as a risk management avenue against economic policy uncertainty (EPU). The review discovers that cryptocurrencies have mixed connectedness patterns with all national EPU therefore, the risk mitigation ability varies from country to country. The review finds that heterogeneous correlation patterns are due to the dependence of EPU on the policies and decisions usually taken by regulatory authorities of a particular country. Additionally, heterogeneous EPU requires heterogeneous solutions to deal with stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty in different economies. Likewise, the divergent protocol and administration of currencies in the crypto market consequently vicissitudes the hedging and diversification performance against each economy. Many research lines can benefit investors, policymakers, fund managers, or portfolio managers. Therefore, the authors suggested future research avenues in terms of topics, data frequency, and methodologies. Full article

Discussions on personal bankruptcy regulations are usually focused on the controversial effects of leniency on society, economy, financial markets, entrepreneurship, and labour supply. However, the methodology of measuring leniency has been limited to one-time legislative changes or some elements of the US personal bankruptcy system. In contrast, we create a composite index of personal bankruptcy legislations. We calculate the composite index for 25 EU countries and the US as a benchmark, validate the results, and rank the countries according to the leniency of their personal bankruptcy systems. We analyse the index scores by region, law origin, and the age of the regime. We conclude that the systems show high heterogeneity and cannot be clustered by region or legal origin assumed based on former studies. However, there is a strong association between leniency and the age of legislation. Results indicate that personal bankruptcy policies in the EU are usually launched as creditor-friendly and are later shifted to a more lenient direction. Full article

This study contributes to the emerging stream of the literature on the COVID-19-related risks and their impact on businesses’ performance. The growing evidence within is, however, missing the uniqueness of country-level settings, as well as lacking the voice of SMEs solely. The extant literature provides some evidence on SMEs’ vulnerabilities to the crisis, but it commonly compares SMEs with large firms. To cover this gap, the main aim of this study is to analyze the perception of COVID-19 interruptions by various groups of Polish SMEs. Thus, this work adds primarily by revising the perceptions of COVID-19 risks, given the heterogeneity of SMEs if we consider their size, age, legal form of organization and status of a family firm. Based on the survey results on SMEs operating in Poland, we employ ANOVA and k-means ranks to provide strong evidence that COVID-19’s impact was perceived as more interruptive by micro and very young firms, as well as by the firms that perform as sole proprietorships. We have also found evidence that family firms do not differ from non-family ones in the perceptions of COVID-19 impacts. Full article

Modern pension schemes are based on the delegation of responsibility for pension provision from state institutions to individuals, which implies voluntary retirement saving. Workers for profit (independent workers in household market enterprises) hold much greater personal responsibility for financing their pensions than workers for pay. The main aim of this study was to provide an empirical identification of economic and social factors that would determine the propensity toward long-term saving for pensions by independent, for-profit workers in Poland. Additionally, the study recognizes the level of saving accumulated by them as well as preferred forms in which this saving is made.In order to select determinants of pension saving, a logistic regression model was used. The data come from the direct survey conducted in 2020 by CAWI method (Computer-Assisted Web Interview) on a random nationwide sample of Poles. The analysis of the data also used other methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics. The conducted research showed that the respondents’ individual decisions concerning saving for retirement are affected by such factors as gender, age, family situation, amount of revenue, share of revenue from business activity in total revenue, and subjective assessment of the respondents’ financial situation. The respondents declared holding various, though not high, savings. Moreover, it turned out that independent workers for profit in Poland opt for non-conventional forms of gathering pension savings. Full article

In this paper, we use a logit model to predict the probability of default for Korean shipping companies. We explore numerous financial ratios to find predictors of a shipping firm’s failure and construct four default prediction models. The results suggest that a model with industry specific indicators outperforms other models in predictive ability. This finding indicates that utilizing information about unique financial characteristics of the shipping industry may enhance the performance of default prediction models. Given the importance of the shipping industry in the Korean economy, this study can benefit both policymakers and market participants. Full article

We examine the impact of overdue debts in small villages in one of Hungary’s most disadvantaged regions. We find that a significant number of debtors with overdue debts permanently escape from debt collectors. Accordingly, in our sample, overdue debts reduce the likelihood of declared work by 14 percentage points on average. The lack of declared work alone reduces the probability of opening a bank account by 21 percentage points, and overdue debts further reduce it by 9 percentage points. The negative effect of overdue debts on health is almost as large as the positive effect of a high school diploma. In addition, the health-destroying effect extends not only to the debtor but to all members of the household. Therefore, overdue debts create a poverty trap mechanism exacerbating financial exclusion, hence resulting in significant losses for both the individual and society. We recommend paying more attention to smoothing credit cycles and resolving non-performing debt obligations. Full article

In this paper, we generate boundary value problems for ruin probabilities of surplus-dependent premium risk processes, under a renewal case scenario, Erlang (2) claim arrivals, and a hypoexponential claims scenario, Erlang (2) claim sizes. Applying the approximation theory of solutions of linear ordinary differential equations, we derive the asymptotics of the ruin probabilities when the initial reserve tends to infinity. When considering premiums that are linearly dependent on reserves, representing, for instance, returns on risk-free investments of the insurance capital, we firstly derive explicit solutions of the ordinary differential equations under considerations, in terms of special mathematical functions and integrals, from which we can further determine their asymptotics. This allows us to recover the ruin probabilities obtained for general premiums dependent on reserves. We compare them with the asymptotics of the equivalent ruin probabilities when the premium rate is fixed over time, to measure the gain generated by this additional mechanism of binding the premium rates with the amount of reserve owned by the insurance company. Full article

We find that risk management committees and BIG4 audit firms contribute to audit fees. We use observations of 895 companies registered in Indonesia for 2014–2018, and to answer our hypothesis we used ordinary least squares analysis. The results show that BIG4 weakens the relationship between RMC and audit fees. Our study proves that higher demand for audit coverage will occur if there is a risk management committee within the company. As a result, audit fees increase. RMC may demand high-quality external guarantees, but the presence of BIG4 as a moderating variable reduces the relationship between the two variables. We assume that this can happen because auditors can work more efficiently if the company has an RMC, auditor(s) could indirectly reduce the risk because it is partially results from the performance of the RMC. In addition, we also use the robustness test to handle the endogeneity problem with consistent results as OLS. These findings provide evidence for policy makers about the relationship between audit fees and risk management committees. Full article

In this study, data from two credit rating agencies are analyzed to consider how different Bank Financial Strength Ratings and Credit Ratings from two rating agencies compare. To my knowledge, prior research has not analyzed Bank Financial Strength Ratings from different rating agencies, nor has it compared Bank Financial Strength Ratings to general credit ratings. These facts make this research unique. Univariate analyses are utilized to show relationships in the ratings data, along with parametric and non-parametric tests to make statistical inferences about the ratings data. There are five findings. First, ratings from different rating agencies are highly correlated. Second, different types of ratings from the same rating agency are highly correlated. Third, bank financial strength ratings are more conservative than credit ratings. Fourth, bank financial strength ratings declined in rating more quickly at the start of the financial crisis. Fifth, bank financial strength ratings from the Kroll Bond Rating Agency were more conservative than ratings from Moody’s Investors Service. The research findings and results are important for investors who consider ratings agency data to determine the risk of banking institutions. The results are also important to businesses that rely on bank credit rating data and policy makers who regulate banking institutions. Full article

Volatility and investor sentiment have been factors for the slow adoption rate of Bitcoin (BTC) that was first recognized in 2008 as a potential store of value, investment vehicle and a hedge alternative to gold during a recession. The purpose of this applied mathematics study will use a multivariate DCC GARCH model. Bitcoin holds its ground in volatility. This study examines Bitcoin as an investment and hedge alternative to gold as well as the major stock index. To perform the research to explore the viability of Bitcoin as an investment and hedge alternative to gold, the authors conducted a DCC GARCH model analysis. The findings of this research paper confirm Bitcoin’s cyclical performance between volatility and adoption. The findings give a strong ground for Bitcoin as the new digital currency, store of value, medium of exchange, and a unit of account and incentivize further research by theorists, scholars and examiners. The significance of this applied mathematics research and analysis will allow an unstoppable, incorruptible, and uncontrollable store of value, and investment vehicle, without governmental or institutional intervention. This study contributes by comparing and contrasting volatility stability based on the return levels of each Bitcoin on major indexes traded with BTC (based on fiat currencies) and gold. Full article

This study aims to reveal the connection between corruption and shadow economy, on one hand, and deforestation, on the other. The research considers 131 countries from all over the world, in the timeframe between the years 2012 and 2020, and it reveals that corruption and shadow economy positively influence deforestation. Determinants like democratic governance quality, press freedom, wood export share, and culture are also key factors in implementing the right, efficient countermeasures aimed at reducing the levels of illegal deforestation and sustainably managing the forestland. The importance of this study is to provide a solid quantitative basis to decision-makers that come across this problem of illegal logging through a better, fact-based understanding of the phenomenon. Full article

We investigate the relation between one-year reserve risk and ultimate reserve risk in Mack Chain Ladder model in a simulation study. The first goal is to validate the so-called linear emergence pattern formula, which maps the ultimate loss to the one-year loss, in case when we measure the risks with Value-at-Risk. The second goal is to estimate the true emergence pattern of the ultimate loss, i.e., the conditional distribution of the one-year loss given the ultimate loss, from which we can properly derive a risk measure for the one-year horizon from the simulations of ultimate losses. Finally, our third goal is to test if classical actuarial distributions can be used for modelling of the outstanding loss from the ultimate and the one-year perspective. In our simulation study, we investigate several synthetic loss triangles with various duration of the claims development process, volatility, skewness, and distributional assumptions of the individual development factors. We quantify the reserve risks without and with the estimation error of the claims development factors. Full article

This paper proposes a coherent multi-population approach to mortality forecasting for less developed countries. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age populations during the past few decades, whereas in the more developed countries, the contemporary mortality declines have been more substantial among the elders. Along with the socioeconomic developments, the mortality patterns of the less developed countries may become closer to those of the more developed countries. As a consequence, forecasting the long-term mortality of a less developed country by simply extrapolating its historical patterns might lead to implausible results. As an alternative, this paper proposes to incorporate the mortality patterns of a group of more developed countries as the benchmark to improve the forecast for a less developed one. With long-term, between-country coherence in mind, we allow the less developed country’s age-specific mortality improvement rates to gradually converge with those of the benchmark countries during the projection phase. Further, we employ a data-driven, threshold hitting approach to control the speed of this convergence. Our method is applied to China, Brazil, and Nigeria. We conclude that taking into account the gradual convergence of mortality patterns can lead to more reasonable long-term forecasts for less developed countries. Full article