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Article

Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo

1
United Nations University Institute for Integrated Management of Material Fluxes and of Resources (UNU-FLORES), Ammonstrasse 74, 01067 Dresden, Germany
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Institut d’Étude du Développement Économique et Social (IEDES), Université Paris 1–Panthéon Sorbonne, 75231 Paris, France
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Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences de la Terre et des Ressources Minières, Université Félix Houphouët Boigny (UFHB), 22 BP 582 Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
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Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire (CSRS), 01 BP 1303 Abidjan, Côte d’lvoire
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Enedir Ghisi
Received: 16 September 2020 / Revised: 17 February 2021 / Accepted: 27 February 2021 / Published: 6 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change on All Areas of Knowledge)
This study investigates the trend in monthly and annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax) using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) method and evaluates the significance of their variability for maize, sorghum and millet yields in northern Togo employing multiple regression analysis. The historical data of Kara, Niamtougou, Mango and Dapaong weather stations from 1977 to 2012 were used. Four non-parametric methods—Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand’s Range Test (BRT), Pettitt’s Test (PT) and Von Neumann’s Ratio Test (VNRT)—were applied to detect homogeneity in the data. For the data which were serially correlated, a modified version of the MK test (pre-whitening) was utilised. Results showed an increasing trend in the annual rainfall in all four locations. However, this trend was only significant at Dapaong (p < 0.1). There was an increasing trend in Tmax at Kara, Mango and Niamtougou, unlike Dapaong where Tmax revealed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01). Similarly, there was an increasing trend in Tmin at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, unlike Niamtougou where Tmin showed a non-significant decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Rainfall in Dapaong was found to have increased (7.79 mm/year) more than the other locations such as Kara (2.20 mm/year), Niamtougou (4.57 mm/year) and Mango (0.67 mm). Tmax increased by 0.13, 0.13 and 0.32 °C per decade at Kara, Niamtougou and Mango, respectively, and decreased by 0.20 per decade in Dapaong. Likewise, Tmin increased by 0.07, 0.20 and 0.02 °C per decade at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, respectively, and decreased by 0.01 °C per decade at Niamtougou. Results of multiple regression analysis revealed nonlinear yield responses to changes in rainfall and temperature. Rainfall and temperature variability affects rainfed cereal crops production, but the effects vary across crops. The temperature has a positive effect on maize yield in Kara, Niamtougou and Mango but a negative effect on sorghum in Niamtougou and millet in Dapaong, while rainfall has a negative effect on maize yield in Niamtougou and Dapaong and millet yield in Mango. In all locations, rainfall and temperature variability has a significant effect on the cereal crop yields. There is, therefore, a need to adopt some adaptation strategies for sustainable agricultural production in northern Togo. View Full-Text
Keywords: trend analysis; Mann–Kendall test; Sen’s slope estimator; linear regression; cereal yield; northern Togo trend analysis; Mann–Kendall test; Sen’s slope estimator; linear regression; cereal yield; northern Togo
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gadedjisso-Tossou, A.; Adjegan, K.I.; Kablan, A.K.M. Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci 2021, 3, 17. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/sci3010017

AMA Style

Gadedjisso-Tossou A, Adjegan KI, Kablan AKM. Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci. 2021; 3(1):17. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/sci3010017

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gadedjisso-Tossou, Agossou, Komlavi I. Adjegan, and Armand K.M. Kablan 2021. "Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo" Sci 3, no. 1: 17. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/sci3010017

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