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A Model Predictive Control for the Dynamical Forecast of Operating Reserves in Frequency Regulation Services

Department of Electrical Engineering, Cyprus University of Technology, P.O. Box 50329, 3603 Limassol, Cyprus
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Received: 25 February 2021 / Revised: 12 March 2021 / Accepted: 16 March 2021 / Published: 17 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021)
The intermittent and uncontrollable power output from the ever-increasing renewable energy sources, require large amounts of operating reserves to retain the system frequency within its nominal range. Based on day-ahead load forecasts, many research works have proposed conventional and stochastic approaches to define their optimum margins for reliability enhancement at reasonable production cost. In this work, we aim at delivering real-time load forecasting to lower the operating-reserve requirements based on intra-hour weather update predictors. Based on critical predictors and their historical data, we train an artificial model that is able to forecast the load ahead with great accuracy. This is a feed-forward neural network with two hidden layers, which performs real-time forecasts with the aid of a predictive model control developed to update the recommendations intra-hourly and, assessing their impact and its significance on the output target, it corrects the imposed deviations. Performing daily simulations for an annual time-horizon, we observe that significant improvements exist in terms of decreased operating reserve requirements to regulate the violated frequency. In fact, these improvements can exceed 80% during specific months of winter when compared with robust formulations in isolated power systems. View Full-Text
Keywords: renewable energy sources; load forecasting; frequency regulation; artificial neural network; model predictive control renewable energy sources; load forecasting; frequency regulation; artificial neural network; model predictive control
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MDPI and ACS Style

Nikolaidis, P.; Partaourides, H. A Model Predictive Control for the Dynamical Forecast of Operating Reserves in Frequency Regulation Services. Forecasting 2021, 3, 228-241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010014

AMA Style

Nikolaidis P, Partaourides H. A Model Predictive Control for the Dynamical Forecast of Operating Reserves in Frequency Regulation Services. Forecasting. 2021; 3(1):228-241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010014

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nikolaidis, Pavlos, and Harris Partaourides. 2021. "A Model Predictive Control for the Dynamical Forecast of Operating Reserves in Frequency Regulation Services" Forecasting 3, no. 1: 228-241. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/forecast3010014

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