GeoHazards

GeoHazards, Volume 2, Issue 1 (March 2021) – 1 article

Cover Story (view full-size image): This view of the Popocatépetl volcano (San Pedro Tlalmimiulpan, 6 March 2019) is a reminder of the powerfulness of natural forces. Even today, local traditions embrace ancient rituals and practices representing human respect toward the volcano’s destructive power, associated with a strong spiritual entity. The potential impact of volcanic activity on inhabited regions is recognized, a fact that makes the assessment of the effects of volcanic events a critical step toward mitigating possible human and economic consequences. View this paper

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16 pages, 3609 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan

by Rafael Ramírez Eudave and Tiago Miguel Ferreira

GeoHazards 2021, 2(1), 1-16; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geohazards2010001 - 25 Jan 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4472

Abstract

Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Single and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment: Challenges, Tools and Good Practices)

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GeoHazards, Volume 2, Issue 1 (March 2021) – 1 article

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