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Article

Simulation of Spatial Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Basis of the Kinetic-Advection Model

1
Dorodnicyn Computing Centre, Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control” of Russian Academy of Sciences, Vavilova str. 40, 119333 Moscow, Russia
2
Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education «MIREA—Russian Technological University», 78 Vernadsky Avenue, 119454 Moscow, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Physics 2021, 3(1), 85-102; https://doi.org/10.3390/physics3010008
Received: 31 December 2020 / Revised: 5 February 2021 / Accepted: 12 February 2021 / Published: 18 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Physics Methods in Coronavirus Pandemic Analysis)
A new two-parameter kinetic equation model is proposed to describe the spatial spread of the virus in the current pandemic COVID-19. The migration of infection carriers from certain foci inherent in some countries is considered. The one-dimensional model is applied to three countries: Russia, Italy, and Chile. Both their geographical location and their particular shape stretching in the direction from the centers of infection (Moscow, Lombardy, and Santiago, respectively) make it possible to use such an approximation. The dynamic density of the infected is studied. Two parameters of the model are derived from known data. The first is the value of the average spreading rate associated with the transfer of infected persons in transport vehicles. The second is the frequency of the decrease in numbers of the infected as they move around the country, associated with the arrival of passengers at their destination. An analytical solution is obtained. Simple numerical methods are also used to perform a series of calculations. Calculations us to make some predictions, for example, about the time of recovery in Russia, if the beginning of recovery in Moscow is known. View Full-Text
Keywords: mathematical modeling; COVID-19 pandemic; kinetic type equation mathematical modeling; COVID-19 pandemic; kinetic type equation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Aristov, V.V.; Stroganov, A.V.; Yastrebov, A.D. Simulation of Spatial Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Basis of the Kinetic-Advection Model. Physics 2021, 3, 85-102. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/physics3010008

AMA Style

Aristov VV, Stroganov AV, Yastrebov AD. Simulation of Spatial Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Basis of the Kinetic-Advection Model. Physics. 2021; 3(1):85-102. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/physics3010008

Chicago/Turabian Style

Aristov, Vladimir V., Andrey V. Stroganov, and Andrey D. Yastrebov 2021. "Simulation of Spatial Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Basis of the Kinetic-Advection Model" Physics 3, no. 1: 85-102. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/physics3010008

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