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Article

Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations

1
College of Education, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240-8501, Japan
2
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba 305-0052, Japan
3
CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
4
RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe 650-0047, Japan
5
Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 14 October 2020 / Revised: 9 December 2020 / Accepted: 10 December 2020 / Published: 18 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tropical Cyclone Future Projections)
This study applied the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) environment factors to project future changes in the frequency and characteristics of TCs over the western North Pacific. We examined current and future TCG environmental conditions in terms of the contribution of five factors: shear line (SL), confluence region (CR), monsoon gyre, easterly wave (EW), and Rossby wave energy dispersion from a preexisting TC (PTC). Among summer and autumn TCs, the contributions of SL and EW to future TCG increased by about 4% and 1%, respectively, whereas those of CR and PTC decreased by the same amounts. In future climate projections, the average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of TCs associated with EW (EW-TCs) was significantly higher than those of TCs associated with other factors except PTC. At higher sea surface temperatures and wetter conditions, higher lower-tropospheric relative vorticity was related to increases in the development rate of EW-TCs. Findings of this study suggest that increases in the average LMI of all future TCs were caused by large contributions from the average LMI of future EW-TCs. View Full-Text
Keywords: tropical cyclone genesis environment; tropical cyclone projection; western North Pacific tropical cyclone tropical cyclone genesis environment; tropical cyclone projection; western North Pacific tropical cyclone
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MDPI and ACS Style

Fudeyasu, H.; Yoshida, K.; Yoshida, R. Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations. Oceans 2020, 1, 355-368. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040024

AMA Style

Fudeyasu H, Yoshida K, Yoshida R. Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations. Oceans. 2020; 1(4):355-368. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040024

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fudeyasu, Hironori, Kohei Yoshida, and Ryuji Yoshida. 2020. "Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations" Oceans 1, no. 4: 355-368. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/oceans1040024

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