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Article

Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan

1
Department of Admissions and High School Liaison, Center for Medical Education, Sapporo Medical University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8556, Japan
2
Division of Physics, Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Center for Medical Education, Sapporo Medical University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8556, Japan
3
Department of Information Engineering, College of Industrial Technology, Amagasaki, Hyogo 661-0047, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Nikolaos I. Stilianakis
Received: 26 February 2021 / Revised: 12 March 2021 / Accepted: 29 March 2021 / Published: 2 April 2021
The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q1) and 6-month cycle (Q2) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q1 and Q2 were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles–mumps–rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan. View Full-Text
Keywords: mumps; seasonality; surveillance; temperature; time series analysis mumps; seasonality; surveillance; temperature; time series analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Mise, K.; Sumi, A.; Takatsuka, S.; Toyoda, S.-i. Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. Epidemiologia 2021, 2, 162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013

AMA Style

Mise K, Sumi A, Takatsuka S, Toyoda S-i. Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. Epidemiologia. 2021; 2(2):162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mise, Keiji, Ayako Sumi, Shintaro Takatsuka, and Shin-ichi Toyoda. 2021. "Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan" Epidemiologia 2, no. 2: 162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013

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