Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Materials
2.1.1. Mumps Data by Prefecture of Japan from April 1999 to December 2020
2.1.2. Mumps Data for the Whole of Japan from July 1981 to December 2020
2.1.3. Meteorological Data
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Time Series Analysis
MEM Spectral Analysis
LSM
2.2.2. Contribution Ratio
2.2.3. Segment Time Series Analysis
2.2.4. Outline of the Analysis Procedure
3. Results
3.1. Number of Mumps Cases and Mean Daily Meteorological Data
3.2. Temporal Variations in Mumps Incidence Data
3.3. Long-Term Periodicities of the Mumps Incidence Data
3.4. Short-Term Periodicities of the Mumps Incidence Data
3.5. Associations between Mumps Incidence and Meteorological Conditions and Population Density
3.6. Unimodal Cycles in the Mumps Incidence Data
3.7. Bimodal Cycles in the Mumps Incidence Data
3.8. Peak Months of Mumps Epidemics
3.9. Effect of Vaccination on Periodic Structures of Mumps Epidemics
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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a. Latitude | b. Longitude | c. Population Size (×103) | d. The Peak Month of LSF 1 Curve | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
First Peak | Second Peak | ||||
Hokkaido | 43° N | 141° E | 5248 | July | December |
Tokyo | 35° N | 139° E | 13,942 | July | December |
Okinawa | 26° N | 127° E | 1454 | February | --- |
a. Daily Temperature | b. Daily Relative Humidity | c. Daily Rainfall | d. Summation of Daily Rainfall (mm) | e. Daily Wind Velocity | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean (°C) | SD a (°C) | SD/Mean | Mean (%) | SD a (%) | SD/Mean | Mean (mm) | SD a (mm) | SD/Mean | Mean (m/s) | SD a (m/s) | SD/Mean | ||
Hokkaido | 9.3 | 9.5 | 1.02 | 68.4 | 10.5 | 0.15 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 2.35 | 23414 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 2.35 |
Tokyo | 16.6 | 7.9 | 0.48 | 62.1 | 15.2 | 0.24 | 4.3 | 13.2 | 3.07 | 32667 | 3.1 | 13.2 | 4.26 |
Okinawa | 23.4 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 72.7 | 10.3 | 0.14 | 5.9 | 18.6 | 3.15 | 44198 | 5.3 | 18.6 | 3.51 |
Prefecture | Period (Year) |
---|---|
Hokkaido | 35.5, 7.0, 5.3, 4.5, 3.1, 2.4, 2.1, 1.9, 1.7, 1.4, 1.2, 1.1 |
Tokyo | 33.6, 7.4, 5.4, 4.4, 3.6, 2.7, 2.2, 1.9, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 |
Okinawa | 33.5, 9.6, 6.7, 4.5, 4.2, 3.4, 2.6, 2.2, 2.0, 1.9, 1.6, 1.4, 1.3, 1.1 |
Q1 | Q2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Temperature | 0.331 * | (p < 0.05) | −0.479 ** | (p < 0.01) |
Relative humidity | −0.381 ** | (p < 0.01) | −0.203 | (p = 0.171) |
Rainfall | −0.032 | (p = 0.832) | −0.479 ** | (p < 0.01) |
Wind velocity | 0.084 | (p = 0.573) | 0.078 | (p = 0.603) |
Population density | 0.514 ** | (p < 0.01) | 0.182 | (p = 0.222) |
Period (Year) |
---|
65.6, 20.5, 13.4, 6.8, 5.6, 4.9, 3.9, 3.4, 3.1, 2.8, 2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1 |
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Mise, K.; Sumi, A.; Takatsuka, S.; Toyoda, S.-i. Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. Epidemiologia 2021, 2, 162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013
Mise K, Sumi A, Takatsuka S, Toyoda S-i. Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. Epidemiologia. 2021; 2(2):162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013
Chicago/Turabian StyleMise, Keiji, Ayako Sumi, Shintaro Takatsuka, and Shin-ichi Toyoda. 2021. "Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan" Epidemiologia 2, no. 2: 162-178. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020013