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Article

Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA
2
Department of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA
3
Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Hana Dobrovolny
Received: 18 March 2021 / Revised: 18 May 2021 / Accepted: 25 May 2021 / Published: 31 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evolving COVID-19 Epidemiology and Dynamics)
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on public health and strained the worldwide economy. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has been predominantly driven by aerosol transmission, and scientific research supports the use of face masks to reduce transmission. However, a systematic and quantitative understanding of how face masks reduce disease transmission is still lacking. We used epidemic data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to calibrate a transmission model in a high-risk setting and derive the reproductive number for the model. We explain how the terms in the reproductive number reflect the contributions of the different infectious states to the spread of the infection. We used that model to compare the infection spread within a homogeneously mixed population for different types of masks, the timing of mask policy, and compliance of wearing masks. Our results suggest substantial reductions in epidemic size and mortality rate provided by at least 75% of people wearing masks (robust for different mask types). We also evaluated the timing of the mask implementation. We illustrate how ample compliance with moderate-quality masks at the start of an epidemic attained similar mortality reductions to less compliance and the use of high-quality masks after the epidemic took off. We observed that a critical mass of 84% of the population wearing masks can completely stop the spread of the disease. These results highlight the significance of a large fraction of the population needing to wear face masks to effectively reduce the spread of the epidemic. The simulations show that early implementation of mask policy using moderate-quality masks is more effective than a later implementation with high-quality masks. These findings may inform public health mask-use policies for an infectious respiratory disease outbreak (such as one of COVID-19) in high-risk settings. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; masks; mathematical model; ordinary differential equations; reproductive number; compartment model; Diamond Princess COVID-19; masks; mathematical model; ordinary differential equations; reproductive number; compartment model; Diamond Princess
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MDPI and ACS Style

Morciglio, A.; Zhang, B.; Chowell, G.; Hyman, J.M.; Jiang, Y. Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments. Epidemiologia 2021, 2, 207-226. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020016

AMA Style

Morciglio A, Zhang B, Chowell G, Hyman JM, Jiang Y. Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments. Epidemiologia. 2021; 2(2):207-226. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020016

Chicago/Turabian Style

Morciglio, Anthony, Bin Zhang, Gerardo Chowell, James M. Hyman, and Yi Jiang. 2021. "Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments" Epidemiologia 2, no. 2: 207-226. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2020016

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