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Administrative Sciences
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Rational Decision Making in Risk Management
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Rational Decision Making in Risk Management

A special issue of Administrative Sciences (ISSN 2076-3387).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 December 2018) | Viewed by 39314

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Jolanta Tamošaitienė

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, LT-1022 Vilnius, Lithuania
Interests: civil engineering; construction; technology; processes; MCDM; risk
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Any activity can be risky. Risk levels can vary depending on the object, size, processes, members, and activity environments. The analyzed object or processes are subject to political, economic, and social conditions. Risk management is a process that involves defining sources of uncertainty (risk identification), estimating the consequences of uncertain events/conditions (risk analysis), and generating response strategies in the light of expected outcomes. Finally, risk management is based on feedback regarding the actual outcomes and risks. The feedback is received while carrying out identification, analysis and response generation steps repetitively throughout the relevant activity to ensure that the set objectives are met. Risk evaluation attributes are selected considering the interests and goals of object or process, as well as factors that influence decision process efficiency and value creation.

Traditionally, risk assessment processes need to consider several different criteria; therefore, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches, and other risk assessment methods are usually used for this purpose.

This Special Issue welcomes articles that offer economic, social, technical and environmental benefits from risk management solutions involving, various decision-making methods, methodologies, models, algorithms and tools for rational decision making.

Dr. Jolanta Tamošaitienė
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Administrative Sciences is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Risk models, tools and techniques for risk management
  • Risk assessment processes
  • Operational research and risk management
  • Decision-making methods and risk management
  • Content and value creation and risk management
  • Decrease in risks
  • Risk management across different sectors
  • Technical risks
  • Crisis management risks
  • Risks threats
  • Corporate risk management
  • Business risk management
  • Bank risk management
  • Financial risk management
  • Enterprise risk management
  • Project management and risks
  • Budget risks
  • Infrastructure risk
  • Procurement risk
  • Strategic management and risks
  • Quantitative and risk management
  • Quality and risk management
  • Human resource and risk management
  • Decision support system for risk management

Published Papers (8 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 1538 KiB  
Article
Estimating Conditional Value at Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Extreme Value Theory Using GARCH Models
by Hamed Tabasi, Vahidreza Yousefi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė and Foroogh Ghasemi
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(2), 40; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9020040 - 24 May 2019
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4365
Abstract
This paper attempted to calculate the market risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange by estimating the Conditional Value at Risk. Since the Conditional Value at Risk is a tail-related measure, Extreme Value Theory has been utilized to estimate the risk more accurately. Generalized [...] Read more.
This paper attempted to calculate the market risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange by estimating the Conditional Value at Risk. Since the Conditional Value at Risk is a tail-related measure, Extreme Value Theory has been utilized to estimate the risk more accurately. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were used to model the volatility-clustering feature, and to estimate the parameters of the model, the Maximum Likelihood method was applied. The results of the study showed that in the estimation of model parameters, assuming T-student distribution function gave better results than the Normal distribution function. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used for backtesting the Conditional Value at Risk model, and in the end, the performance of different models, in the estimation of this measure, was compared. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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14 pages, 265 KiB  
Article
Bond Mutual Funds vs. Bond Exchange Traded Funds: Evaluation of Risk Adjusted Performance
by Jelena Stankevičienė and Ieva Petronienė
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(2), 31; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9020031 - 02 Apr 2019
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3717
Abstract
Growing acceptance of passive bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) and actively managed bond mutual funds has exposed the need to find a divide between these two comparatively similar types of instrument. This paper provides a comparative analysis of actively managed bond funds and [...] Read more.
Growing acceptance of passive bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) and actively managed bond mutual funds has exposed the need to find a divide between these two comparatively similar types of instrument. This paper provides a comparative analysis of actively managed bond funds and passive bond ETFs in the context of multiple criteria. The research of risk-adjusted performance of a sampled group of bond funds and ETFs using the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method revealed that actively managed bond funds have a modest advantage over passive bond ETFs. Moreover, the final findings indicate the funds’ performance dependability on portfolio composition by fixed income sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
16 pages, 2893 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Impact Modeling as a Road Transport Crisis Management Support Tool
by David Rehak, Michal Radimsky, Martin Hromada and Zdenek Dvorak
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(2), 29; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9020029 - 28 Mar 2019
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3620
Abstract
Crisis management must provide data to allow for real-time decision-making. Accurate data is especially needed to minimize the risk of critical infrastructure failure. Research into the possible impacts of critical infrastructure failure is a part of developing a functional and secure infrastructure for [...] Read more.
Crisis management must provide data to allow for real-time decision-making. Accurate data is especially needed to minimize the risk of critical infrastructure failure. Research into the possible impacts of critical infrastructure failure is a part of developing a functional and secure infrastructure for each nation state. Road transport is one such sector that has a significant impact on its functions. When this fails, there may be a cascading spread of impacts on the energy, health, and other sectors. In this regard, this paper focuses on the dynamic modeling of the impacts of critical road infrastructure failures. It proposes a dynamic modeling system based on a stochastic approach. Its essence is the macroscopic model-based comparative analysis of a road with a critical element and detour roads. The outputs of this system are planning documents that determine the impacts of functional parameter degradation on detour roads—not only applicable in decision-making concerning the selection of the optimal detour road, but also as a support mechanism in minimising possible risks. In this article we aim to expand the extent of knowledge in the Crisis management and critical infrastructure protection in the road transport sector fields. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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18 pages, 1582 KiB  
Article
Approaches to Risk Identification in Public–Private Partnership Projects: Malaysian Private Partners’ Overview
by Hadi Sarvari, Alireza Valipour, Nordin Yahya, Norhazilan MD Noor, Michael Beer and Nerija Banaitiene
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(1), 17; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9010017 - 10 Feb 2019
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 7435
Abstract
The complexity of public–private partnership (PPP) projects ensures that risks could emerge and spread in unpredictable ways if they are not well identified and managed. The emergence of PPP projects has brought major changes in the construction industry, the most notable being in [...] Read more.
The complexity of public–private partnership (PPP) projects ensures that risks could emerge and spread in unpredictable ways if they are not well identified and managed. The emergence of PPP projects has brought major changes in the construction industry, the most notable being in procurement methods influencing risk allocation to private parties. Thus, it is crucial to have an effective risk management for public and private partners to eliminate or minimise risks. Formulating an effective risk management system is a crucial challenge faced by both of parties in order to minimise or optimise risks. The aim of this study was to investigate the process of risk identification of private partners in Malaysian PPP projects. Data were collected throughout a 2-month period using a survey with a sample of nine Malaysian companies engaged in PPP projects, and the survey results were analysed using mean scores. The findings indicate that due to a lack of knowledge and experience of Malaysian private partners in the risk identification process, a comprehensive database for risk identification is highly necessary for the private sector. Another issue emerging from the findings is that it may be reasonable to use a combination of risk identification tools for PPP projects with a high level of complexity. The findings of the present study can greatly assist public and private partners to select the most appropriate tools for risk identification at the early stages of PPP projects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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20 pages, 527 KiB  
Article
Risk Management as a Success Factor in the International Activity of Spanish Engineering
by Alicia Lozano-Torró, Tatiana García-Segura, Laura Montalbán-Domingo and Eugenio Pellicer
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(1), 15; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9010015 - 06 Feb 2019
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3984
Abstract
During the period between 2008–2013, the internal market in Spain was characterized by economic crisis, the contraction of the demand experienced in a turbulent business environment, and strong competition among companies. This situation forced many of these companies to work abroad. One of [...] Read more.
During the period between 2008–2013, the internal market in Spain was characterized by economic crisis, the contraction of the demand experienced in a turbulent business environment, and strong competition among companies. This situation forced many of these companies to work abroad. One of the success factors for Spanish engineering companies abroad has been effective risk management, which avoids compromising the company’s objectives, market share, or survival. This article examines the importance of risk management in the success of Spanish engineering consulting firms in the international construction market. Ten executives of Spanish engineering companies with international experience were interviewed, analyzing the importance of risk management for them in the success of internationalization compared with other success factors. The results show that the size of the companies interviewed has no influence on the importance that they gave to risk management, but international experience does relate to the assessment of risk identification and management as a success factor. In addition, companies considered risk management a key factor for optimizing their performance in foreign markets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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14 pages, 3574 KiB  
Article
Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates
by Vahidreza Yousefi, Siamak Haji Yakhchali and Jolanta Tamošaitienė
Adm. Sci. 2019, 9(1), 13; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci9010013 - 01 Feb 2019
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2900
Abstract
In this research, the concept of Duration with a new application in project management has been defined. The Duration of each project provides the project manager with a combined measure containing concepts of return, cost and time of the project. Further in this [...] Read more.
In this research, the concept of Duration with a new application in project management has been defined. The Duration of each project provides the project manager with a combined measure containing concepts of return, cost and time of the project. Further in this article, the changes in project return, based on different assumptions such as discount rate, have been examined. To examine the effect of the changes in these factors, the Monte Carlo simulation has been used. The relationship between these factors is nonlinear which reflects the great importance of investment on appropriate risk management systems. The data from a set of construction projects have been used in order to verify the results of this study. Similar relationships can be expected to exist in other industries as well. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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17 pages, 1902 KiB  
Article
Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis
by Alireza Valipour, Hadi Sarvari and Jolanta Tamošaitiene
Adm. Sci. 2018, 8(4), 80; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci8040080 - 06 Dec 2018
Cited by 37 | Viewed by 5438
Abstract
Recently, risk assessment has become one of the most challenging issues in the areas of construction and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To address risk assessment issues, various decision-making techniques have been proposed, each with its own specific disadvantages and advantages. This paper investigates step-wise [...] Read more.
Recently, risk assessment has become one of the most challenging issues in the areas of construction and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To address risk assessment issues, various decision-making techniques have been proposed, each with its own specific disadvantages and advantages. This paper investigates step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), fuzzy analytic network process (FANP), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS), simple additive weighting (SAW) and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) in order to define how various multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods compare when used for risk assessment in PPP projects. For this study, 5 risk assessment criteria and 10 types of risk used in Iranian highway PPP projects were selected. Four suitability and applicability tests were used to measure agreement between the rankings derived from the MADM methods. Final results show that all techniques had approximately the same rankings of risk assessment, with the SWARA, COPRAS, and EDAS methods performing slightly better. The findings of this study will help the parties in PPP and construction projects to select the best risk assessment method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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22 pages, 2534 KiB  
Communication
Development and Introduction of the Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) as an Enabler to the ISO 31000 and ISO 31010 for High-Risk Environments
by Jerry Selvaseelan
Adm. Sci. 2018, 8(2), 22; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/admsci8020022 - 16 Jun 2018
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 6738
Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for [...] Read more.
The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rational Decision Making in Risk Management)
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