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Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability

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A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (13 January 2023) | Viewed by 15229

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mingzhong Xiao

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

State Key Laboratory of Lunar and Planetary Sciences, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau 999078, China
Interests: hydro-meteorological extremes; evapotranspiration simulation; tropical cyclone; land and atmospheric interactions; detection of climate change from natural climate variability

Dr. Futing Wu

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Interests: extreme weather and climate event; hydrometeorology; model evaluation; high-frequency variability; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In recent years, extreme hydro-meteorological events (such as drought, extreme precipitation, and heatwave) are becoming more frequent around the world. For example, this year (2021), North America has suffered a severe heatwave, and Europe and China have suffered extreme floods. These extreme hydro-meteorological events have severely threatened people’s lives and property safety. Therefore, it is important and necessary to analyze changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events, such as occurrence and intensity changes. Changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events are expected under climate warming. However, they are also impacted by natural climate variability. Analyzing the impacts of natural climate variability on these extreme hydro-meteorological events may help us to better understand climate-warming-related change, although it is a challenge to separate climate warming and natural climate-variability-related changes in these extreme hydro-meteorological events.

This Special Issue aims to collect the latest methodological developments and applications in studying both natural climate variability and climate-warming-related changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events. Topics of interest for the Special Issue include but are not limited to:

Observed or simulated trends in extreme hydro-meteorological events;
The influence of climate indexes (such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) on changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events;
The effect of multiple climate indicators on the changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events;
How the occurrence and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events change.

Dr. Mingzhong Xiao
Dr. Futing Wu
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

extreme precipitation
drought
heat wave
tropical cyclone
climate warming
natural climate variability

Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 4768 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends in Precipitation and Air Temperature Extremes and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature in the Brazilian Midwest

by Luiz Octávio F. dos Santos, Nadja G. Machado, Marcelo S. Biudes, Hatim M. E. Geli, Carlos Alexandre S. Querino, Anderson L. Ruhoff, Israel O. Ivo and Névio Lotufo Neto

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 426; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14030426 - 21 Feb 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1794

Abstract

The Brazilian Midwest has significant spatiotemporal variability in terms of precipitation and air temperature, making it more vulnerable to the occurrence of extreme weather events. The objective of this study is to characterize the trend of extreme climatic events regarding precipitation and air temperature in the Brazilian Midwest, and to analyze their relationship with Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTAs). We used daily precipitation and air temperature data measured at 24 conventional weather stations. Pacific and Atlantic SSTA data were obtained from the Climate Prediction Center. The frequency of hot extremes had increased, while that of cold extremes had decreased significantly, thus highlighting the consistent warming across the Brazilian Midwest. The precipitation extremes had greater variability than the temperature extremes. Precipitation intensity increased in Amazonia, with no change in annual precipitation volume. The precipitation extremes in the Brazilian Savanna, Pantanal, and the Atlantic Forest did not have a well-defined pattern but indicated a trend towards a decrease in days with intense precipitation events. In general, the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Ocean (TNAI and TSAI) SSTAs were negatively correlated with precipitation extreme indices and positively correlated with air temperature extreme indices in the Amazon. However, the North Atlantic SSTAs were positively correlated with precipitation and air temperature extreme indices in the Brazilian Savanna and Pantanal. In addition, the Pacific SSTAs were positively correlated with precipitation intensity in the Atlantic Forest. Thus, the variability of the trends of precipitation and air temperature extreme indices in the Brazilian Midwest was observed, and it was surmised that this measure was significantly related to Pacific and Atlantic SSTAs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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22 pages, 12383 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Adhering Solid Precipitation in the Current and Pseudo-Global Warming Future Climate over the Canadian Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan

by Ronald Stewart, Zhuo Liu, Dylan Painchaud-Niemi, John Hanesiak and Julie M. Thériault

Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 396; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos14020396 - 17 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1281

Abstract

Solid precipitation falling near 0 °C, mainly snow, can adhere to surface features and produce major impacts. This study is concerned with characterizing this precipitation over the Canadian Prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the current (2000–2013) and pseudo-global warming future climate, with an average 5.9 °C temperature increase, through the use of high resolution (4 km) model simulations. On average, simulations in the current climate suggest that this precipitation occurs within 11 events per year, lasting 33.6 h in total and producing 27.5 mm melted equivalent, but there are wide spatial variations that are partly due to enhancements arising from its relatively low terrain. Within the warmer climate, average values generally increase, and spatial patterns shift somewhat. This precipitation consists of four categories covering its occurrence just below and just above a wet-bulb temperature of 0 °C, and with or without liquid precipitation. It generally peaks in March or April, as well as in October, and these peaks move towards mid-winter by approximately one month within the warmer climate. Storms producing this precipitation generally produce winds with a northerly component during or shortly after the precipitation; these winds contribute to further damage. Overall, this study has determined the features of and expected changes to adhering precipitation across this region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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17 pages, 2859 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Joint Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Various Wildfire and Drought Indicators in Indonesia

by Sri Nurdiati, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Pandu Septiawan and Muhammad Reza Ardhana

Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1591; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13101591 - 29 Sep 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1497

Abstract

Wildfires are well known as annual disasters in Indonesia. More than 3 million ha was burned in the last 5 years. During an extreme event such as in 2019, carbon emissions can cause smog disasters in neighboring countries such as Malaysia and Singapore. Though difficult to predict, many hotspots that appear can be used to indicate the emergence of large-scale wildfires. The objective of this research is to provide suggestions in terms of used variables when analyzing fire event indication (hotspot), fire event scale (burned area), and fire event impact (carbon emissions). This research provides a spatio-temporal analysis and dependency between drought (precipitation and its derivative variables) and fire indicators (hotspot, burned area, and carbon emission). This research provides the different characteristics of each indicator when used to find joint patterns of burned areas, hotspots, and carbon emissions. Overall, using potential evapotranspiration and precipitation to calculate climate water balance gives great results in all analysis. Precipitation anomalies give the best joint spatial pattern to describe wildfire events in the area with monsoonal rainfall. Meanwhile, precipitation gives better results by capturing more wildfire events in a temporal pattern, even on robust analysis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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14 pages, 3928 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Dry and Wet Events in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2020 and the Analysis of Influencing Factors

by Mengdie Geng, Puxing Liu, Xuemei Qiao, Miao Wang and Xingdan Wang

Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1067; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13071067 - 06 Jul 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1249

Abstract

It is important to consider extreme climate events, reduce disaster losses, and formulate effective disaster prevention and mitigation countermeasures. Based on the daily data from 36 meteorological stations of Xinjiang from 1960 to 2020, in order to analyze the temporal–spatial variations and influencing factors of extreme dry and wet events in Xinjiang, a number of methods were used including climate trend, the Mann–Kendall test, the Fourier power spectrum, the contribution rate, partial least squares and cross-wavelet analysis. Results indicate that the annual average frequency of extreme dry/wet events has a decreasing/increasing trend, at the rate of 0.26 times/decade and 0.19 times/decade, respectively; the variation trend in extreme dry and wet events of four seasons are consistent with the annual counterpart, at the rate of −0.04 times/decade and 0.02 times/decade (spring), −0.08 times/decade and 0.05 times/decade (summer), −0.05 times/decade and 0.06 times/decade (autumn), and −0.1 times/decade and 0.08 times/decade (winter). Fe fluctuation is greatest in winter and the smallest in spring, so the transition to warm and wet is obvious in winter and spring drought is easy to occur; the variation extent of extreme dry and wet events in northern Xinjiang exceeds the counterpart in southern Xinjiang; 1986 and 1987 witnessed abrupt variation in extreme dry and wet events in Xinjiang, with indication of distinct periodic oscillations of 2.44, 2.94, and 5.69 years and 2.94 and 5.69 years, respectively; the extreme dry (wet) events are determined by meteorological factors, comprising precipitation, relative humidity and temperature, and the circulation factors constituted by Western Pacific Subtropical High-Intensity Area (East Asian Trough Intensity, Westerly Circulation and Western Pacific Subtropical High Area) and El Niño events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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12 pages, 2203 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Super Cyclone Activities over the Bay of Bengal during the Primary Cyclone Season

by Zhi Li, Zecheng Xu, Yue Fang and Kuiping Li

Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 685; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13050685 - 25 Apr 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1572

Abstract

An obvious interdecadal change can be measured in the super cyclones (SCs, categories 4 and 5) that occur from October to November over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This change may be modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). A La Niña-like difference between the 1977–1998 (IP1) and 1999–2014 (IP2) periods forced a local Hadley circulation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean by strengthening the Walker circulation, which caused plummeting upper-level temperatures and ultimately created favorable thermodynamic conditions to enhance the cyclone intensity. Meanwhile, an equatorial downwelling Kelvin wave caused by heating and westerly wind differences entered the BoB rim along the coast and aptly intensified the cyclone, such that the downwelling Kevin wave and Rossby wave generated by its reflection deepened the thermocline in the BoB. The favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in IP2 jointly and preferentially cause far more SC activities from October to November over the BoB compared to IP1. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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20 pages, 9543 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Joint Distribution Analysis of Forest Fires and Precipitation in Response to ENSO, IOD, and MJO (Study Case: Sumatra, Indonesia)

by Sri Nurdiati, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan and Pandu Septiawan

Atmosphere 2022, 13(4), 537; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos13040537 - 28 Mar 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2465

Abstract

To evaluate the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the occurrence of land and forest fire in Sumatra, copula-based joint distribution analysis and quadrant analysis (for extreme events) were carried out in this research. This research used dry spells (number of days without rain) and precipitation anomalies as climate indicators and hotspots as land and forest fire indicators. Using data spanning from 2001 to 2020, this research shows that ENSO and IOD strongly influence hotspots in Sumatra with monsoonal-type precipitation. Even though the impact is not linear, the probability of a higher number of hotspots occurring increases significantly, especially during strong El Niño and weak El Niño combined with positive IOD. Furthermore, the results show that moderate El Niño has a similar impact to weak El Niño on the affected area, while weak El Niño combined with positive IOD can result in effects similar to robust El Niño impact. Meanwhile, this research has shown that the MJO affects hotspots in the first dry season of Sumatran areas that have equatorial-type precipitation. Although its impact on dry spell–precipitation anomaly dependency is unclear, phases 6,7, and 8 of MJO significantly increase dry spell–hotspot dependency during dry conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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17 pages, 5837 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends in the Diurnal Temperature Range over the Southern Slope of Central Himalaya: Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation

by Kalpana Hamal, Shankar Sharma, Rocky Talchabhadel, Munawar Ali, Yam Prasad Dhital, Tianli Xu and Binod Dawadi

Atmosphere 2021, 12(12), 1683; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12121683 - 15 Dec 2021

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3848

Abstract

The Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) profoundly affects human health, agriculture, eco-system, and socioeconomic systems. In this study, we analyzed past and future changes in DTR using gridded Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets for the years 1950–2020 and an ensemble means of thirteen bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios for the rest of the 21st century over the southern slope of Central Himalaya, Nepal. Furthermore, the potential drivers (precipitation and cloud cover) of seasonal and annual DTR were studied using correlation analysis. This study found that the DTR trends generally declined; the highest decrease was observed in the pre-monsoon and winter at a rate of 0.09 °C/decade (p ≤ 0.01). As expected, DTR demonstrated a significant negative correlation with cloudiness and precipitation in all four seasons. Further, the decreased DTR was weakly related to the Sea Surface Temperature variation (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. We found that the projected DTR changes in the future varied from a marginal increase under the SSP1-2.6 (only pre-monsoon) scenario to continued significant decreases under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Insights based on retrospective and prospective evaluation help to understand the long-term evolution of diurnal temperature variations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changes in Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events: Climate Warming or Natural Climate Variability)

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