Submit to Atmosphere Review for Atmosphere Propose a Special Issue

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

► Journal Browser

Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall

Special Issue Editors
Special Issue Information
Keywords
Published Papers

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (5 November 2020) | Viewed by 28650

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editors

Prof. William A. Gallus

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
Interests: mesoscale atmospheric phenomena; thunderstorms; rainfall prediction; numerical weather prediction; tornadoes; convection-allowing ensemble forecasts

Prof. Kelly Lombardo

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA
Interests: coastal storms

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Atmosphere dedicates this Special Issue to thunderstorm morphological evolution and forecasts of thunderstorm rainfall. Increased computer power in recent years has allowed models to run routinely with convection-allowing horizontal grid spacing, and the reflectivity structures of the thunderstorm systems simulated with these models bear a strong similarity to the types of structures often seen in radar. However, the specific morphologies of systems simulated, their evolution, location, and timing frequently do not agree with observations for specific events. Accurate simulation of the morphology is important, since different morphologies are associated with different weather hazards.

Similar challenges exist regarding simulation of thunderstorm system rainfall. Warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) remain far less skillful than those for other seasons, and in fact, the difference in skill between the summer and winter is widening. Many flood events occur during the warm season, and improved prediction of the rainfall from thunderstorm systems is essential for allowing greater lead time for flood forecasts for streams and rivers. Techniques that incorporate the assimilation of radar data have shown some promise for improving these forecasts, but the improvements are often limited to only the first few hours after initialization. It is clear that much work remains to be done to improve simulations of thunderstorm rainfall and morphology.

In light of these remaining challenges, we invite you to contribute articles to this Special Issue by reporting on both observational and modeling studies related to thunderstorm system morphology and rainfall, and their evolution. Solicited contributions include but are not limited to observed and simulated morphological evolution, relationship of mode to severe weather, observations of rainfall distributions in thunderstorms, techniques to improve forecasting of thunderstorm QPF, PQPF, and POP, and impacts of physical parameterizations on these forecasts.

Prof. William A. Gallus
Prof. Kelly Lombardo
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

Thunderstorm morphology
Mesoscale convective systems
Warm season QPF
Severe thunderstorms
Convection-allowing simulations
Convection-allowing ensembles
Thunderstorm system evolution
Upscale growth of thunderstorms

Published Papers (12 papers)

Download All Papers

Research

14 pages, 5326 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Areal Probability of Precipitation in Moist Tropical Air Masses for the United States

by Cade Reesman, Paul Miller, Rebecca D’Antonio, Kevin Gilmore, Ben Schott and Chris Bannan

Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 255; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12020255 - 15 Feb 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2204

Abstract

Moist tropical (MT) air masses routinely host convective precipitation, including weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs). These short-lived, isolated events present recurring forecasting challenges due to their spatially small footprints and seemingly erratic behavior in quiescent warm-season environments worldwide. In particular, their activity is difficult to accurately characterize via probability of precipitation (POP), a common forecast product for the general public. This study builds an empirical climatological POP distribution for MT days over the continental United States using Stage IV precipitation estimates. Stage IV estimates within MT air masses between May–September (i.e., the boreal warm season) 2002–2019 are masked into precipitation (≥0.25 mm) and nonprecipitation (<0.25 mm) areas and standardized by the number of MT days. POPs are higher when MT air masses are present. For the Southeast U.S., POP generally increases ~15% compared to the overall warm-season value. At 1800 UTC (1–2 PM LT) daily, POPs are confined to coastal areas and east-facing ridges, and advance inland by 2100 UTC (4–5 PM LT). Climatologically, ~50% of the warm-season precipitation in the Southern U.S. occurred in MT environments. This study emphasizes the need for better forecasting tools and climatological analyses of weakly forced environments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 7741 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rainstorm in Northeast China Caused by the Residual Vortex of Typhoon 1909 (Lekima)

by Yiping Wang and Tong Wang

Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 120; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12010120 - 16 Jan 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2185

Abstract

From 14 to 17 August 2019, a heavy rainstorm occurred in Northeast China due to the combined influence of the residual vortex of typhoon 1909 (Lekima) and cold air intrusion. Based on the precipitation data of China Meteorological observation stations, surface and upper charts, HMW-8 satellite images, NCEP/NCAR 0.25° × 0.25° reanalysis data and WRF4.0 numerical prediction model are used to carry out numerical simulations. According to the weather situation and numerical simulation results, the cause of 1 h severe precipitation is thoroughly studied. Results show that: (1) According to the weather situation, the precipitation process can be divided into two stages. The first stage is from 1412 to 1612 August 2019, which is caused by the interaction between the residual vortex, the inverted trough of typhoon 1909 (Lekima) and the upper trough. The rain belt lies from northeast to southwest, and the rainfall center has typical meso-β-scale characteristics. At the second stage from 1612 to 1712 August 2019, the residual vortex of typhoon reaches Heilongjiang Province, at the same time, 500 hPa cold vortex falls to the south; (2) Based on the 1 h rainfall of automatic weather stations, it can be seen that there are three rainfall peaks from 00 UTC 14 to 12 UTC 17, which are 53.2 mm in the Middle East of Jilin Province, 38.2 mm in the south of 1610 Liaoning Province, and 21.3 mm in the east of 1707 Heilongjiang Province respectively. (3) Before the occurrence of 1 h heavy rainfall, the water vapor is concentrated in the middle and lower troposphere. The residual vortex trough of typhoon 1909 extends northward, converges with the southwest airflow at the edge of the subtropical high, and transports water vapor and energy to the northeast. The convective cloud clusters generated ahead of the trough move southeast, then merge into the mesoscale convective system in the inverted trough; (4) In the Bohai Bay and North Korea, there is a vortex-like zone composed of several convergence centers, and the convergence zone in typhoon-inverted trough meets with the trough in Central Jilin. There exist a rising area and a positive vorticity belt in the typhoon-inverted trough, and the center of heavy rain lies in front of the positive vorticity center. At the west of the inverted trough, there is a large center of positive vertical wind shear, and a small center in the east. The center of heavy rainfall is located on the line between the maximum and minimum centers, which is close to the right of the maximum center; (5) The high energy tongue is transported from the center of the typhoon to the northeast along the inverted trough of the typhoon, and the southwest airflow at the edge of the subtropical high. There is a zone titled downward from northwest to southeast that contains dry and cold air, where there is convective instability; (6) The strong precipitation area is located on the lee in the northwest of Changbai Mountain. There is a convergence area in the middle of the troposphere, and a strong divergence area in the upper troposphere, with remarkable topographic effect, and the west divergence column inclines on the east convergence column. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

23 pages, 4250 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Statistical Characteristics and Environmental Conditions of the Warm-Season Severe Convective Events over North China

by Ruoyun Ma, Shuanglei Feng, Shuanglong Jin, Jianhua Sun, Shenming Fu, Shijun Sun and Hong Han

Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 52; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12010052 - 31 Dec 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1792

Abstract

Based on severe weather reports, surface precipitation observations, surface routine observations, and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis dataset during the warm seasons (May–September) of 2011–2018 over North China, this paper analyzes the statistical characteristics and environmental conditions of three types of severe convective events. Results are compared between events with different altitudes (i.e., mountains and plains), severities (i.e., ordinary and significant), and months. Hail and thunderstorm high winds (THWs) are more common over the mountains whereas short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR) is more frequent over the plains. The occurrence frequency of severe convective events exhibits distinct monthly and diurnal variations. Analyses of the environmental parameters provide reference for the potential forecasting of severe convective events over this region. Specifically, the 850–500 hPa temperature lapse rate (LR85), pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at 500 hPa (thetase500), and precipitable water (PW) are skillful in distinguishing hail and THW environments from SDHR environments, and thetase500 is useful in discriminating between hail and THW environments. The convective environments over the plains are characterized by significantly higher (lower) PW (LR85) compared with mountains. The skill of these parameters in forecasting the severity of the convective hazards is limited. Probability distributions in the two parameters space indicate that the occurrence of significant hail requires both higher most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) and stronger 0–6 km bulk wind shear (SHR6) compared with ordinary hail. Compared with ordinary THWs, the significant THWs over the mountains depend more on the SHR6 whereas those over the plains rely more on the MUCAPE. The significant SDHR events over the plains tend to occur under a variety of instability conditions. The thermodynamic parameters (i.e., MUCAPE, thetase500, and downdraft convective available potential energy), and PW are significantly higher in July–August, whereas the LR85 and vertical wind shear are apparently higher in May, June and September. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 7863 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Can Pre-Storm Errors in the Low-Level Inflow Help Predict Spatial Displacement Errors in MCS Initiation?

by Nicholas J. Vertz, William A. Gallus, Jr. and Brian J. Squitieri

Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 7; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12010007 - 23 Dec 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1556

Abstract

The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is a contributing factor to the initiation and evolution of nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the central United States by supplying moisture, warm air advection, and a source of convergence. Thus, the ability of models to correctly depict thermodynamics in the LLJ likely influences how accurately they forecast MCSs. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to examine the relationship between spatial displacement errors for initiating simulated MCSs, and errors in forecast thermodynamic variables up to three hours before downstream MCS initiation in 18 cases. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses in 3 layers below 1500 m above ground level were used to represent observations. Correlations between simulated MCS initiation spatial displacements and errors in the magnitude of forecast thermodynamic variables were examined in regions near and upstream of both observed and simulated MCSs, and were found to vary depending on the synoptic environment. In strongly-forced cases, large negative moisture errors resulted in simulated MCSs initiating further downstream with respect to the low-level flow from those observed. For weakly-forced cases, correlations were weaker, with a tendency for smaller negative moisture errors to be associated with larger displacement errors to the right of the inflow direction for initiating MCSs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

22 pages, 9727 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Mechanisms of Convection Initiation in the Southwestern Xinjiang, Northwest China: A Case Study

by Abuduwaili Abulikemu, Jie Ming, Xin Xu, Xiaoyong Zhuge, Yuan Wang, Yunhui Zhang, Shushi Zhang, Bixin Yu and Mangsuer Aireti

Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1335; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11121335 - 09 Dec 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3121

Abstract

The mechanism of convection initiation (CI) occurring in the Southwest Xinjiang, Northwest China is investigated using quantitative budget analysis of vertical momentum for the first time. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to reproduce and analyze the CI events. The observations showed that many CIs occurred continuously, with an intense mesoscale convective system eventually forming. The overall features of the CIs were well captured by the simulation. Lagrangian vertical momentum budgets, in which the vertical acceleration was decomposed into dynamic and buoyant components, were performed along the backward trajectories of air parcels within two convective cells. The results showed that the buoyant acceleration is the major contributor in both the slow and rapid lifting period of the CI, while the dynamic acceleration also showed a considerably positive effect only during the rapid lifting period. The buoyant acceleration during the slow lifting period was due to the warm advection generated by the radiative heating near the mountainous area on the south side of Tarim Basin in the afternoon. The buoyant acceleration during the rapid lifting period was from the latent heat release within the convective cell. Further decomposition of the dynamic acceleration showed that the vertical twisting related to the vertical shear of horizontal wind almost completely dominated the dynamic acceleration, while the horizontal curvature and extension showed very weak contribution. These findings provide some new insights into the roles of buoyant and dynamic forcing in the mechanism of CI in Southwest Xinjiang. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

21 pages, 11437 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Five-Year Climatology of Local Convections in the Dabie Mountains

by Linlin Zheng, Jianhua Sun, Xuexing Qiu and Zuxiang Yang

Atmosphere 2020, 11(11), 1246; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11111246 - 18 Nov 2020

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1748

Abstract

Local Convection in Dabie Mountains (LCDM) occurs more frequently over the Dabie Mountains and brings severe weather to adjacent areas. In order to understand the characteristics of LCDM, their spatial distribution, the monthly and diurnal variations, and possible mechanisms are investigated. Based on radar composite reflectivity data over the 5-y period of 2014–2018 during warm seasons (April–September), a total of 195 cases of LCDM are identified. The LCDM exhibits maximum frequency on the windward slopes of the Dabie Mountains with a secondary maximum on lee slopes. It is demonstrated that LCDM peaks in July and August, while their diurnal variation exhibits a major peak in the afternoon during 12:00–16:00 local solar time (LST). Most LCDM does not leave the Dabie Mountains (NoOut-Type), accounting for 89.7% overall, and has an average 3.5 h lifespan. In contrast, the lifespans of Out-Types (i.e., LCDMs that move away from the Dabie Mountains) are longer (5.8 h on average), while most Out-Type LCDMs develop on southern slopes (‘South-Type’) and a few are also reinforced on northern slopes (‘North-Type’). The South-Type mainly produces short-duration heavy precipitation, while the ‘North-Type’ predominately generates thunderstorms high winds. It is suggested that LCDM is thermally induced, and that both the ‘South-Type’ and ‘North-Type’ are controlled by southerly wind perturbation. Lifting by upslope wind and heat sources over windward slopes has led to ‘South-Type’ development, while ascent induced by wave-like perturbations on lee slopes has led to ‘North-Type’. These mechanisms should be further investigated in future work by using field experiments and numerical simulations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

26 pages, 22723 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Initiation and Organization Mechanisms of Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event over Beijing

by Lei Yin, Jiahua Mao, Fan Ping, Xiaofan Li and Ning Wang

Atmosphere 2020, 11(9), 946; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11090946 - 04 Sep 2020

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2466

Abstract

A torrential rainfall that occurred in Beijing during the period of 21–22 July 2012 is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model in order to investigate the probable mechanisms for the initiation and organization of warm-sector mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The simulated results show that the cyclone, which formed in Hetao area, Inner Mongolia and moved eastward slowly, played a key role in the formation and development of warm-sector precipitation, although the favorable atmospheric environment and the configuration of weather systems are also important, which caused the trigger and organization of convective cells along Taihang Mountains. It is the interaction of the local terrain convergence line and the southerly airflows of Hetao cyclone that cause the continuous trigger of convective cells along Taihang Mountains. While, the triggers of convective cells in the plains are caused by the gravity waves, which is related to the development and eastward movement of Hetao cyclone. It must be pointed out that the merging and coupling between the cells that triggered in Taihang Mountains and moved southwesterly and the cells that triggered in plains and moved northeasterly are the key factors for the formation and development of MCSs during the warm-sector precipitation. In addition, the back-building processes and the cold pool forcing are also important for the formation and development of MCSs in this study. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 4337 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonal Variability of Lightning Activity in Yakutia in 2009–2019

by Lena Tarabukina and Vladimir Kozlov

Atmosphere 2020, 11(9), 918; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11090918 - 28 Aug 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2133

Abstract

The instrumental continuous monitoring of lightning activity in Yakutia has been carried by the lightning direction finder since the 2000s. Devices for detection of sferic (very low frequency radio pulses emitted by lightning discharges) in Yakutia were supplemented in 2009 with relatively short-range (effective detection radius up to 480 km) single-point Stormtracker and LD-250 direction finders from Boltek Corporation (Welland, ON, Canada). The Stormtracker gives a slightly overestimated ratio of CG strokes due to the amplitude threshold of a single-point direction finder, but the device has not changed over the years, which allows for the consideration of the annual dynamics of parameters. In 2009, a sensor in Yakutsk was included in the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The seasonal and diurnal variations of the total lightning stroke number in the central part and the entire area of Yakutia were obtained (up to 1200 km in radius and limited by latitude–longitude boundaries of 105–150° E, 55–75° N). The longest thunderstorm seasons are often observed in the southern part of Yakutia. There was a slight increase in the duration of the thunderstorm season until 2015 in the central part of Yakutia. The interannual variations in the total number of lightning strokes showed periodic fluctuations (with a period of about three years) over the whole area of Yakutia. The periods of high lightning activity shifted within a season from year to year, as revealed by the monthly stroke number variation. Thus, the maximum lightning rate occurred at the beginning of summer, in the middle or at the beginning of August, and had a period of about three years. Every summer, there were 2–3 periods of high lightning activity, resulting from the moving average with a two-week window (according to the longest duration of cyclones). If the periods of high lightning activity shifted toward the beginning of summer, a decrease in the number of days between seasonal peaks was observed. If the maximum shifted to the beginning of August, the number of days between peaks increased. The ratio of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strokes and the ratio of negative CG strokes was slightly decreasing by 2015 in the central part of Yakutia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

23 pages, 14414 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Idealized Simulations of City-Storm Interactions in a Two-Dimensional Framework

by Jason Naylor

Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 707; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11070707 - 02 Jul 2020

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2053

Abstract

Numerous studies have identified spatial variability in convective parameters such as rainfall totals and lightning flashes in the vicinity of large urban areas, yet many questions remain regarding the storm-scale processes that are altered during interaction with a city as well as which urban features are most responsible for storm modification. This study uses an idealized, two-dimensional cloud model to investigate structural and evolutionary changes in a squall line as it passes over a simplified representation of a large city. A parameter space exploration is done in which the parameters of the city—surface temperature and surface roughness length—are systemically increased relative to the region surrounding the idealized city. The resultant suite of simulations demonstrates that storm parameters such as vertical velocity, hydrometeor mass, upward mass flux, and buoyant accelerations are enhanced when the storm passes over the idealized city. No such enhancement occurs in the control simulation without an idealized city. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

22 pages, 6137 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Lightning Jump Algorithm for Nowcasting Convective Rainfall in Catalonia

by Carme Farnell and Tomeu Rigo

Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 397; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11040397 - 16 Apr 2020

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3516

Abstract

Previous studies in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) showed a direct relationship between the Lightning Jump (LJ) and severe weather, from the study of different events, occurring in the last few years in this region. This research goes a step beyond by studying the relationship between LJ and heavy rainfall, considering different criteria. It selects those episodes exceeding the 40 mm/h threshold, dividing them between those with or without LJ occurrence (3760 and 14,238 cases, respectively). The time and distance criteria (<150 km and <50 min, respectively) allow the detection of rainfall episodes with LJ, to establish an accurate relationship between the jump and the heavy rain occurrence. Then, lightning and radar data are analyzed, considering monthly and hourly distributions. Skill scores for the period 2013–2018 showed good results, especially in summer, with values of POD ≃ 90% and FAR ≃ 10% Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 6438 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sensitivity of a Bowing Mesoscale Convective System to Horizontal Grid Spacing in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

by John R. Lawson, William A. Gallus, Jr. and Corey K. Potvin

Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 384; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos11040384 - 14 Apr 2020

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2147

Abstract

The bow echo, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) responsible for much hail and wind damage across the United States, is associated with poor skill in convection-allowing numerical model forecasts. Given the decrease in convection-allowing grid spacings within many operational forecasting systems, we investigate the effect of finer resolution on the character of bowing-MCS development in a real-data numerical simulation. Two ensembles were generated: one with a single domain of 3-km horizontal grid spacing, and another nesting a 1-km domain with two-way feedback. Ensemble members were generated from their control member with a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme, with identical initial and lateral-boundary conditions. Results suggest that resolution reduces hindcast skill of this MCS, as measured with an adaptation of the object-based Structure–Amplitude–Location method. The nested 1-km ensemble produces a faster system than in both the 3-km ensemble and observations. The nested 1-km simulation also produced stronger cold pools, which could be enhanced by the increased (fractal) cloud surface area with higher resolution, allowing more entrainment of dry air and hence increased evaporative cooling. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 23975 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Observational and Modelling Study of a Major Downburst Event in Liguria: The 14 October 2016 Case

by Antonio Parodi, Martina Lagasio, Maurizio Maugeri, Barbara Turato and William Gallus

Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 788; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos10120788 - 06 Dec 2019

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2791

Abstract

Downbursts are very disruptive weather events that can produce large amounts of damage. The most studied downbursts are those occurring in the United States and continental Europe, but they can happen globally. This work is an observational and modelling analysis of a major downburst event that occurred on 14 October 2016 over eastern Liguria (Italy). This downburst affected an area 30 km long and 10 km wide, producing observed wind gusts of 40 m/s with major impacts to railways, trees, and houses, with more than 2.5 million euros of damage. First, the general environment influencing this downburst is identified and analyzed, then the event is reproduced with a small multi-physics high-resolution ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–advanced research WRF (ARW) model, with 1 km horizontal grid spacing. The event was poorly predicted beforehand, and the difficulty in forecasting this event is confirmed by the fact that so few ensemble members suggested the occurrence of damaging winds over eastern Liguria. However, one of the eight members performed well and its output helped to reveal the primary mechanisms for the downburst, suggesting that high-resolution ensembles using mixed physics may be a useful tool for improving the prediction of similar extreme events in the Mediterranean region in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

Thunderstorm Morphological Evolution and Forecasts of Thunderstorm System Rainfall

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editors

Special Issue Information

Keywords

Published Papers (12 papers)

Research

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI