Special Issue "Meteorological Extremes in China"
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 January 2022.
Interests: climate extreme events; land–atmosphere interaction; climate modeling
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Interests: vegetation change; land–atmosphere interactions; model simulation; climate change
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Extreme events, such as extreme heavy precipitation and heatwaves, are usually associated with economic loss and have great impacts on human health. Following global warming, we are expected to have more frequent extreme events. For example, the warming may directly lead to an increase in the frequency of heatwaves, and the increase in temperature will increase the water holding capacity in the air that may substantially lead to the forming of extremely heavy precipitation events. However, we still lack knowledge of the mechanisms behind some of these extreme events, due to which the prediction/forecasting of extreme events is always a big challenge. Analyzing past extreme events and their mechanisms behind them is key to predicting/forecasting the occurrence and intensity of extreme events.
For this Special Issue, contributions are sought which analyze and help to understand the past variation of extreme events, such as extreme heavy precipitation and heatwaves. Both long-term analyses and case studies of extreme events based on observations and model simulations are welcome. A special focus is on understanding the mechanisms behind extreme events. We would like to invite you to contribute to the Special Issue. Submissions are encouraged to cover a wide range of topics, which may include but are not limited to the following:
- Heavy precipitation;
Dr. Tinghai Ou
Dr. Xuejia Wang
Dr. Hengde Zhang
Manuscript Submission Information
Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.
Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.
Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.
- extreme events
- heavy precipitation
The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.
Title: Analysis on the Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Plum Rain in 2020
Authors: Xiangning Cai et al.
Abstract: In 2020, the duration of Plum Rain is extremely long and the amount of precipitation is far more than normal. Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and analyzing the evolution of the planetary-scale circulation systems, it is found that during the Plum Rain season, strong blocking high systems maintain in the mid-high latitudes of Asia and Europe, and frequent cold air penetrate the Jianghuai basin. At the same time, the Western Pacific subtropical high is significantly strong and westward, and the water vapor transported by the subtropical high to the Jianghuai Basin is significantly strong. After the monsoon erupts, the southwest airflow from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea carries abundant vapor to the Jianghuai Basin. The cold and warm air converged in the Jianghuai Basin for a long time, resulting in a stronger Meiyu front and significantly more rainfall. From June to July, the South Asian High and the subtropical high have frequent north-south swings, causing large north-south swings of rain belt during the Plum Rain period. However, the medium-range forecast deviation of the subtropical high is still large in the mainstream business models. At present, the ensemble forecast models have a usable forecast time of about 5 days for the 500 hPa large-scale circulation systems; while that for the 200 hPa circulation systems may reach about 9 days. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the evolution and adjustment of high-level systems to grasp the forecast signals in medium and long-range forecasts.
Title: Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Possible Influence of ENSO Events in a Humid Wateshed in China
Authors: Xuchun Ye et al.
Abstract: In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960~2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to ENSO events of different areas of the Pacific Ocean were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin increased significantly since 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated obviously. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an upward trend with abrupt changes occurred around 1990. Spatially, the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the central and southern part of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and NINO1+2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2-6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of Poyang Lake Basin and the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, when in a warm ENSO year, annual precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increases in varying degrees. The results of this paper will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin.
Title: Future projection for temperature extremes in the North China Plain using multi-model ensemble of CMIP5
Authors: Dengpan Xiao et al.
Abstract: Extreme climate event (ECE) had exerted great impacts on human life and the study of extreme climate can reduce the risks caused by ECEs for social and economic development, especially for agricultural production. In the study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal change characteristics of 16 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during 1971–2100 in the North China Plain (NCP) based on observed climate data and 33 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The independence weighted mean (IWM) and arithmetic mean (AM) were used to compare with the performance of individual GCM. The projected ETIs from IWM had a smaller root mean square error (RMSE) with observations compared to that from the individual GCM and AM and can better reproduce the temporal trends of ETIs in the historical period (1971–2016). Across the NCP, the extreme low temperature indices such as CSDI, TN10P, TX10P, FD, ID showed a significant decreasing trend during 2031–2100 under both of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. However, the extreme high temperature indices such as WSDI, TN90P, TX90P, SU, TR, TXN, TXX showed a significant increasing trend. Moreover, the change magnitude under RCP8.5 was much higher than that under RCP4.5. Overall, the results indicated that there would be more heat stress in the NCP in the coming decades of the 21st century. Therefore, evaluating the potential impacts of future extreme high temperature and adopting effective mitigation and adaptation measures are important issues for the NCP in the future.
Title: Small-Sample Probability Estimates of Extreme Tidal Level along the Chinese Northern Bohai and Yellow Seas
Author: Peng Qi
Abstract: The Bohai and Yellow Seas (BYS) are the unique areas in northern China which are harmed by storm surge of both tropical cyclones occasionally in the north path during summer and early autumn months and extratropical synoptic systems frequently in the seasons of spring, late autumn and winter. The storm surge disaster may occur every season along the BYS. This paper focuses on exceedance probability estimates of the extreme tidal level for different return periods and risk assessment based on small sampling of historic data from a number of ocean stations along the BYS. Due to insufficiency of the samples, a fuzzy risk assessment method is used based on the information diffusion principle (IDP), which is able to optimize small samples. The IDP results are compared with the Gumbel curves and show its accuracy and validity. The IDP method will be helpful to design tidal level of return periods for new engineering areas to be built where measured hydrologic data are insufficient.