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Atmosphere
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Mediterranean Cyclones and Their Impacts in Europe under Current and...
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Mediterranean Cyclones and Their Impacts in Europe under Current and Future Climate

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (26 April 2021) | Viewed by 5104

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mihaela Caian

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania
Interests: regional weather and climate extremes; seasonal prediction; climate scenarios
Dr. Florinela Georgescu

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania
Interests: cyclonic activity; associated dangerous phenomena; types of atmospheric circulation

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The Mediterranean cyclones formed mainly in the Central and Eastern sea-side are often at the origin of storm tracks over SE Europe. Along their trajectory they transport latent heat, enhance baroclinicity, and may interact with upper-level PV anomalies (often under unstable jet-stream) and with regional forcing, leading to an intensified development and to extreme weather events. In the last several decades these have been associated with more intense wind, enhanced precipitation, and seasonal shifts, and have led to extremely damaging effects such as the spring of 2017 and summer of 2018 for SE Europe.

Regarding their predictability, it has been shown that intense storms are actually less predictable, the same being valid for intensity, cloud features or associated precipitation versus location. In the long range, winter storm tracks appear more predictable, consistent with the predictable drivers from the upper troposphere jet flow.

Future changes in their type and tracks are expected from changes in sst and increased moisture availability, baroclinicity (linked to Arctic amplification), jet location, and strength associated with Rossby waves breaking variability. Additionally, predicting changes in the statistics of extremes connected to Mediterranean storm track changes remains an important challenge.

This Special Issue aims at advancing knowledge on the formation and evolution mechanisms of Mediterranean cyclones, their predictability, links with the slow drivers of coupled sea–atmosphere variability, and their statistics' changes under projected climate change. It also aims at advancing knowledge on changing European hazards (windstorms, heavy precipitation) associated with Mediterranean cyclones that could further improve the projection of impacts in SE Europe.

Dr. Mihaela Caian
Dr. Florinela Georgescu
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Mediterranean cyclones
  • trajectory and life-cycle
  • predictability
  • observations and classification
  • extremes and case studies
  • impact
  • future changes under climate change

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 12250 KiB  
Article
Recent Changes in Storm Track over the Southeast Europe: A Mechanism for Changes in Extreme Cyclone Variability
by Mihaela Caian, Florinela Georgescu, Mirela Pietrisi and Oana Catrina
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1362; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12101362 - 18 Oct 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2186
Abstract
Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the [...] Read more.
Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the Mediterranean Sea sub-domains) and the target area (Romania-centered domain). In winter, extreme cyclones became more frequent in the south and were also more persistent in the northeast of Romania. In summer, these became more intense and frequent, mainly over the south and southeast of Romania, where they also showed a significant increase in persistence. The regional extreme changes are related to polar jet displacements and further enhanced by the coupling of the sub-tropical jet in the Euro-Atlantic area, such as southwestwards shift in winter jets and a split-type configuration that shifts northeastwards and southeastwards in the summer. These provide a mechanism for regional variability of extreme cyclones through two paths, respectively, by shifting the origins of the tracks and by shifting the interaction between the anomaly jet streaks and the climatological storm tracks. Large-scale drivers of these changes are analyzed in relation to the main modes of atmospheric variability. The tracks number over the target domain is mainly driven during the cold season through a combined action of AO and Polar–European modes, and in summer by the AMO and East-Asian modes. These links and the circulation mode’s recent variability are consistent with changes found in the jet and storm tracks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mediterranean Cyclones and Their Impacts in Europe under Current and Future Climate)
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30 pages, 9500 KiB  
Article
Temporal Variability and Predictability of Intense Cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean
by Veronika N. Maslova, Elena N. Voskresenskaya, Andrey S. Lubkov and Alexander V. Yurovsky
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1218; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12091218 - 17 Sep 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1829
Abstract
Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th [...] Read more.
Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th percentile (intense cyclones) and the 95th percentile (extreme cyclones), over the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The locations of cyclones were obtained by applying the method of M. Yu. Bardin on the 6-hourly 1000 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1951–2017 (67 years). It was shown that annual frequencies of cyclones were higher in the Western Mediterranean due to the contribution of spring and autumn; monthly averages were higher in the Eastern Mediterranean in December/January–March for intense/extreme cyclones. In the context of global warming, no linear trends significant at the 90% confidence level were found in the variability of intense and extreme cyclones, except for a positive trend in autumn extreme cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean. The time series of cyclones in both parts of the Mediterranean were characterized by a pronounced interannual variability with a noticeable decadal modulation. According to spectral analysis, these interannual periods were multiples of 2–3 years corresponding to the main global teleconnection patterns. Seasonally, the most energy was concentrated in winter spectra; spring and autumn spectra had lower comparable magnitudes. The correlation analysis between the frequency of cyclones and the indices of the main atmospheric patterns showed that the main synchronous patterns for intense and extreme Mediterranean cyclones in September–April were the Mediterranean Oscillation (with the opposite signs for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean), Scandinavia pattern (positive correlation), and East Atlantic Oscillation (negative correlation). Additional important synchronous teleconnection patterns for some months were the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern for the Western Mediterranean, and the Polar/Eurasia pattern and Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern for the Eastern Mediterranean. The outcome of this paper was the use of an artificial neural network model with inputs of global teleconnection indices both in the atmosphere and ocean to describe the temporal variability of the frequency of intense cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The predictability of intense cyclones was shown with the possibility of forecasts with a lead time of 0, 2, 4, and 6 months for the Western Mediterranean in October, January, February, April, and May, and for the Eastern Mediterranean in January, February, March, April, and May. One of the applications of this model may be in forecasting the evolution of the monthly frequency of cyclones with a lead time of 2 to 6 months. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mediterranean Cyclones and Their Impacts in Europe under Current and Future Climate)
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