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Atmosphere
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Toward Improvement of Typhoon/Hurricane Prediction with Better-Initialization and Higher-Resolution Models
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Toward Improvement of Typhoon/Hurricane Prediction with Better-Initialization and Higher-Resolution Models

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (24 September 2021) | Viewed by 7093

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: mesoscale modeling; typhoon dynamics and modeling; GNSS RO data assimilation
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Shu-Ya Chen

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
GPS Science and Application Research Center, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: GNSS RO; data assimilation; numerical model prediction on severe weather
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

As tropical cyclones occur in various environmental conditions and may develop with unresolved internal structures, improving forecasts of the intensification rate and evolving tracks of the storms once typhoons/hurricanes have formed involves more delicate initial conditions, as well as the reliable representation of physical processes in high-resolution numerical models. Both regional models and global models now allow for nested or zoomed-in horizontal resolution further down to 1 km, or so to better capture small-scale variations that in turn will feed back to mesoscale and even large-scale flow conditions, also controlling the track change. Data assimilation as well as vortex initialization are often applied to improving the initial vortex structures of typhoons/hurricanes. In this Special Issue, any research advancement within this interesting area is welcome, for the improvement of numerical forecast skill. In particular, recent typhoons over the western North Pacific and South China Sea have been concerned with more remote observations available in this region. For example, GNSS radio occultation (RO) data now may provide evenly dense global coverage in the subtropical and tropical regions and potentially have great impacts on tropical cyclone prediction. Integration with remote observations, including RO data in a 3DVAR/EnKF hybrid data assimilation (DA) system, is now present in most operational models. The performance of operational models on typhoon/hurricane forecasts with hybrid DA is worth updating in this Special Issue. Further realization of forecast sensitivities and uncertainties of state-of-art models to various issues in the above are fundamental to both academic research and routine operation. Topographic effects of steep mountains affecting the dynamic mechanisms of typhoon track and structural evolution are essentially important for prediction on track with or without deflection, as well as torrential rainfall over the terrain. Environmental factors, including ocean cold and warm eddies near the storm path, vertical wind shear, neibouring moonsoon gyres, etc., are also vital to the development of translational typhoons/hurricanes. This Special Issue encourages interested researchers to submit such related investigations.

Dr. Shu-Ya Chen
Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • typhoons/hurricanes
  • data assimilation
  • vortex initialization
  • RO data

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

22 pages, 13887 KiB  
Article
Impact of Radio Occultation Data on the Prediction of Typhoon Haishen (2020) with WRFDA Hybrid Assimilation
by Shu-Ya Chen, Thi-Chinh Nguyen and Ching-Yuang Huang
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1397; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12111397 - 25 Oct 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 1846
Abstract
FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (FS7/C2) satellite was successfully launched in June 2019. The satellite provides about 5000 radio occultation (RO) soundings daily over the tropical and partial subtropical regions. Such plentiful RO soundings with high accuracy and vertical resolution could be used to improve model initial [...] Read more.
FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (FS7/C2) satellite was successfully launched in June 2019. The satellite provides about 5000 radio occultation (RO) soundings daily over the tropical and partial subtropical regions. Such plentiful RO soundings with high accuracy and vertical resolution could be used to improve model initial analysis for typhoon prediction. In this study, assimilation experiments with and without the RO data were conducted with the WRFDA hybrid system for the prediction of Typhoon Haishen (2020). The experimental results show a remarkable improvement in typhoon track prediction with RO data assimilation, especially when using a nonlocal refractivity operator. Results in cycling DA and forecast are analyzed and verified for the RO data impact. Diagnostics of potential vorticity (PV) tendency budget helps explain the typhoon translation induced by different physical processes in the budget. The typhoon translation is essentially dominated by horizontal PV advection, but the track deviation can increase due to the vertical PV advection with opposite effects in the absence of RO data. Sensitivity experiments for different model initial times, physics schemes, and RO observation amounts show positive RO data impacts on typhoon prediction, mainly contributed from FS7. Complementary, an improved forecast of Typhoon Hagupit (2020) is also illustrated for the RO data impact. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Improvement of Typhoon/Hurricane Prediction with Better-Initialization and Higher-Resolution Models)
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12 pages, 4512 KiB  
Article
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using an Improved Probability-Matching Method and Its Application to a Typhoon Event
by Jin-Qing Liu, Zi-Liang Li and Qiong-Qun Wang
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1346; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12101346 - 14 Oct 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2167
Abstract
This present study aims to explore how forecasters can quickly make accurate predictions by using various high-resolution model forecasts. Based on three high temporal-spatial resolution (3 km, hourly) numerical weather prediction models (CMA-MESO, CMA-GD, CMA-SH3) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the hourly [...] Read more.
This present study aims to explore how forecasters can quickly make accurate predictions by using various high-resolution model forecasts. Based on three high temporal-spatial resolution (3 km, hourly) numerical weather prediction models (CMA-MESO, CMA-GD, CMA-SH3) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the hourly precipitation characteristics of three model within 24 h from March to September 2020 are discussed and integrated into a single, hourly, deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) by making use of an improved weighted moving average probability-matching method (WPM). The results are as follows: (1) In non-rainstorm forecasts, CMA-MESO and CMA-GD have similar forecast abilities. However, in rainstorm forecasts, CMA-MESO has a notable advantage over the other two models. Thus, CMA-MESO is selected as a critical factor when participating in sensitivity experiments. (2) Compared with the traditional equal-weight probability-matching method (PM), the WPM improves the different grade QPF because it can effectively reduce rainfall pattern bias by making use of the weighted moving average (WMA). Additionally, the WPM threat score in rainstorm forecast similarly improved from 0.051 to 0.056, with a 9.8% increase relative to the PM. (3) The sensitivity experiments show that an optimal rainfall intensity score (WPM-best) can further improve the QPF and overcome all single models in both rainstorm and non-rainstorm forecasts, and the WPM-best has a rainstorm threat score skill of 0.062, with an increase of 21.6% compared with the PM. The performance of the WPM-best will be better if the precipitation intensity is stronger and the valid forecast periods is longer. It should be noted that there is no need to select models before using the WPM-best method, because WPM-best can give a very low weight to the less-skillful model in a more objective way. (4) The improved WPM method is also applied to investigate the heavy-rainfall case induced by typhoon Mekkhala (2020), where the improved WPM technique significantly improves rainstorm forecasting ability compared with a single model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Improvement of Typhoon/Hurricane Prediction with Better-Initialization and Higher-Resolution Models)
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29 pages, 20412 KiB  
Article
A Comparative Modeling Study of Supertyphoons Mangkhut and Yutu (2018) Past the Philippines with Ocean-Coupled HWRF
by Thi-Chinh Nguyen and Ching-Yuang Huang
Atmosphere 2021, 12(8), 1055; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12081055 - 17 Aug 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2181
Abstract
The ocean-coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was used to investigate the evolution of Supertyphoons Mangkhut and Yutu (2018) over the Philippines Sea and near landfall in the northern Philippines. The simulation results indicate that Mangkhut at a deepening stage has [...] Read more.
The ocean-coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was used to investigate the evolution of Supertyphoons Mangkhut and Yutu (2018) over the Philippines Sea and near landfall in the northern Philippines. The simulation results indicate that Mangkhut at a deepening stage has a smaller track sensitivity to the use of different physics schemes but greater intensity sensitivity, which becomes reversed for Yutu at a weakening stage. When both upstream tracks are well simulated with some specific suite of physics schemes, sensitivity experiments indicate that both track deviations near the northern Philippines are only weakly modified by the air–sea interaction (ocean-coupled or uncoupled processes), the topographic effects of the Philippines terrain (retained or not), and the initial ocean temperature change along both typhoon tracks. The interactions between the internal typhoon vortex and the large-scale flow play an important role in the overall movement of both typhoons, which were explored for their structural and convective evolutions near the terrain. The wavenumber-one potential vorticity (PV) tendency budget of the typhoon vortex was analyzed to explain the induced typhoon translation from different physical processes. The west-northwestward translation for the stronger Mangkhut near the northern Philippines is primarily induced by both horizontal and vertical PV advection but with the latter further enhanced to dominate the northward deflection when closing in to the terrain. However, the northwestward translation and track deflection near landfall for the weaker Yutu are driven by the dominant horizontal PV advection. Differential diabatic heating is relatively less important for affecting the movement of both typhoons near landfall. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Improvement of Typhoon/Hurricane Prediction with Better-Initialization and Higher-Resolution Models)
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