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The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real...
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy

A special issue of Economies (ISSN 2227-7099).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 August 2022) | Viewed by 135173

Printed Edition Available!
A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Finance, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, Romania
Interests: corporate finance; corporate governance; quantitative finance; sustainable development
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Ten years after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 caught the world by surprise—an unexpected and hard-to-predict issue which has been regarded as a “Black Swan” event. Even though the roots of the coronavirus are not in the financial system, its influence propagated throughout the economy via quarantine measures, remote working, or physical distancing which significantly reduced both supply and demand worldwide. The large-scale dispersion of COVID-19 intensified market risk aversion, with businesses becoming indebted, unemployment rates soaring throughout major economies, and the travel industry and hospitality sector coming to a standstill. Moreover, the panic associated with the effect of COVID-19 on the global economy harmed investor sentiment and lowered stock prices in leading markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst day since the “Black Monday” market crash in 1987 and its third-worst day ever. Additionally, Treasury markets broke down, with an evident shortage of claims. That is not all: since its emergence, the pandemic has also impacted the overall petroleum trade, combining oversupply with a strong decrease in demand. For the first time in history, an oil futures contract went into negative values in April 2020. Overall, the health-induced crisis disrupted a bull market that had prevailed for more than a decade and established the 2020 bear market and recession.

This Special Issue will cover a wide range of topics, including but not limited to:

  • Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on stock price crash risk;
  • Investigating volatility spillovers between stock and energy markets during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis;
  • Analyzing the connectedness of stock markets with gold and oil throughout the pandemic period;
  • Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency;
  • Inspecting safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic;
  • Estimating volatility in international sovereign bond markets in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic;
  • Examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment;
  • Evaluating corporate insolvency following the COVID-19 outbreak.

Dr. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Economies is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Impact of coronavirus on the stock market
  • Pandemic and investor sentiment
  • Effect of COVID-19 on cryptocurrencies
  • Impact of the pandemic on oil prices
  • COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty
  • Influence of the pandemic on corporate bankruptcy
  • Effect of COVID-19 on employment

Published Papers (18 papers)

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Editorial

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5 pages, 235 KiB  
Editorial
The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy
by Ștefan Cristian Gherghina
Economies 2023, 11(4), 107; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies11040107 - 31 Mar 2023
Viewed by 4225
Abstract
The emergence of the novel coronavirus in December 2019 manifested in an expanding prevalence of confirmed cases worldwide, posing a significant challenge to international healthcare safety; with this incident, the notion of “regular life” shifted (Guven et al [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

22 pages, 1606 KiB  
Article
Comparative Analysis of Socioeconomic Models in COVID-19 Pandemic
by Sergey Mikhailovich Vasin
Economies 2022, 10(11), 278; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10110278 - 08 Nov 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2207
Abstract
Certain features of socioeconomic models can be distinctly determined in different countries and regions. However, such models are quite flexible under external and internal influences. Their changes can be observed under the impact of unpredictable factors, the COVID-19 pandemic being one. The aim [...] Read more.
Certain features of socioeconomic models can be distinctly determined in different countries and regions. However, such models are quite flexible under external and internal influences. Their changes can be observed under the impact of unpredictable factors, the COVID-19 pandemic being one. The aim of the work is to identify differences in the structure of socioeconomic models under the influence of the pandemic. The object of the study is the socioeconomic models of various states. The subject of the study is the transformation of socioeconomic models at different stages of the pandemic. Research methods include analysis of statistical data, correlation and comparative analysis, and graphical methods of presenting results. A comparison of data from the most well-known socioeconomic models was carried out for the first time. It is determined that the countries of the Chinese model adopted restrictive measures of high Stringency Index. The countries of the Japanese model used unique crowd management methods, and the countries of the Scandinavian, German and Anglo-Saxon models resorted to unprecedented monetary injections into the social and economic spheres. It was revealed that quarantine measures eventually cost countries less than monetary injections. It was shown that a decrease in the Pandemic Uncertainty Index stabilized the economic behavior of the population and businesses and increased the volume of export-import operations. It was found that the pandemic affected the economy indirectly through the level of uncertainty and rigidity of preventive measures. It is assumed that the intensity and severity of measures could be influenced by global trends leading to certain types of preventive measures rather than by the COVID-19 statistics of a particular country. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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22 pages, 3609 KiB  
Article
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Business Environment in Slovakia
by Lucia Svabova, Katarina Kramarova and Dominika Chabadova
Economies 2022, 10(10), 244; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10100244 - 07 Oct 2022
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 8756
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected economic development in countries around the world. It has deepened existing problems and increased the need for economic transformation, modernisation, and qualitative development, and launched new technological reforms that have led to the emergence of new economic [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected economic development in countries around the world. It has deepened existing problems and increased the need for economic transformation, modernisation, and qualitative development, and launched new technological reforms that have led to the emergence of new economic forms of business models, consumption, as well as policies at the level of the state or local governments. The impacts of the pandemic are still visible in many aspects of life, including economic activity and the individual decisions of economic subjects at the level of households, enterprises, and governments. In this article, we present the results of the impact analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic with an emphasis mainly on the SMEs segment focusing on the tourist, hotel, and gastro industry (generally as one of the most affected by the pandemic). We also analyse the impact of the pandemic on the automotive industry because it is the most important manufacturing industry in Slovakia. Regardless of which industries of the national economy they are operating in, SMEs are assumed to be a driving force of structural changes, increasing employment, and economic growth. SMEs in Slovakia represent approx. 99% of all active enterprises and significantly participate in the success of the national economy. They are also an important factor in cooperation with large enterprises; in the case of Slovakia, the automotive industry should be highlighted (it is an important part of the secondary sector). The analysis and evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are carried out as a temporal and comparative analysis of the selected economic and industrial indicators relevant to the assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the Slovak business environment. It is an overview study of development; the impact of the pandemic is expressed mostly through the ratio indicators. The basis for time analysis and comparison is data representing the economic status quo before the pandemic (2019), and the ordinary period is represented by data distinctive of the pandemic period (2020, 2021). The results of the analysis indicate that the pandemic had a strong impact on employment and the sales of enterprises operating in the accommodation and catering industries; on the other hand, it did not reflect in the number of defunct enterprises, which points to the potential effectiveness of anti-pandemic measures in terms of state aid for the business sector. The results of this study may serve as a basis for the evaluation of introduced support programs (the evaluation of optimal combination and the impact of fiscal policies during a national/global economic crisis between assisting households, companies, state, and local governments) immediately mitigating the consequences of anti-pandemic measures, but also programs to eliminate the long-term consequences of the pandemic in the business environment in Slovakia. Assessing the situation is also a prerequisite for evaluating the impact of current crises (problems such as the global failure of logistics chains due to the pandemic, inflation, the environmental and energy crisis, and migration due to war conflict and applied sanction measures). In general, it is possible to claim that the pandemic was a huge burden for Slovakia; on the other hand, it was a lesson learned. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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18 pages, 1740 KiB  
Article
Uncertainty Analysis of Business Interruption Losses in the Philippines Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Joost R. Santos, John Frederick D. Tapia, Albert Lamberte, Christine Alyssa Solis, Raymond R. Tan, Kathleen B. Aviso and Krista Danielle S. Yu
Economies 2022, 10(8), 202; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10080202 - 19 Aug 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 5758
Abstract
In this study, we utilize an input–output (I–O) model to perform an ex-post analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic workforce disruptions in the Philippines. Unlike most disasters that debilitate physical infrastructure systems, the impact of disease pandemics like COVID-19 is mostly concentrated on the [...] Read more.
In this study, we utilize an input–output (I–O) model to perform an ex-post analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic workforce disruptions in the Philippines. Unlike most disasters that debilitate physical infrastructure systems, the impact of disease pandemics like COVID-19 is mostly concentrated on the workforce. Workforce availability was adversely affected by lockdowns as well as by actual illness. The approach in this paper is to use Philippine I–O data for multiple years and generate Dirichlet probability distributions for the Leontief requirements matrix (i.e., the normalized sectoral transactions matrix) to address uncertainties in the parameters. Then, we estimated the workforce dependency ratio based on a literature survey and then computed the resilience index in each economic sector. For example, sectors that depend heavily on the physical presence of their workforce (e.g., construction, agriculture, manufacturing) incur more opportunity losses compared to sectors where workforce can telework (e.g., online retail, education, business process outsourcing). Our study estimated the 50th percentile economic losses in the range of PhP 3.3 trillion (with telework) to PhP 4.8 trillion (without telework), which is consistent with independently published reports. The study provides insights into the direct and indirect economic impacts of workforce disruptions in emerging economies and will contribute to the general domain of disaster risk management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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27 pages, 1121 KiB  
Article
The Tourist and Recreational Potential of Cross-Border Regions of Russia and Kazakhstan during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimation of the Current State and Possible Risks
by Anna Tanina, Larissa Tashenova, Yevgeni Konyshev, Dinara Mamrayeva and Dmitriy Rodionov
Economies 2022, 10(8), 201; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10080201 - 18 Aug 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 1914
Abstract
The development of tourism is associated with numerous risks that have a direct and indirect impact on the realization of tourist and recreational potential. In recent years, in addition to internal risks, the importance of external environmental risks (geopolitical and epidemiological) has increased. [...] Read more.
The development of tourism is associated with numerous risks that have a direct and indirect impact on the realization of tourist and recreational potential. In recent years, in addition to internal risks, the importance of external environmental risks (geopolitical and epidemiological) has increased. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the foremost of these risks, and its effects on the development of regional tourism demands attention. The purpose of the study is to estimate the level of tourist and recreational potential of cross-border regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, and the possible risks during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the breakup of the USSR, one of the longest land borders in the world was established between Russia and Kazakhstan. The geographical scope of the study includes 12 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and 7 regions of Kazakhstan. Information posted on statistical portals, data from geographical atlases, and specialized websites of the executive authorities were used as the materials for the study. The tourist and recreational potential of the regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan was estimated by the scorecard method, with the assignment of weight coefficients to indicators included in four main clusters: Natural Factors, Cultural and Historical Factors, Social and Economic Factors, and Infrastructure Support of Tourism. Additionally, the experience of studying risks associated with tourism development during the pandemic was summarized. The conclusions reached are indicative of different levels of tourism and recreational potential in cross-border regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, and the inconsistency of the industry’s structure. It was found that the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of risks for the realization of tourism and recreational potential, which must be taken into account when making management decisions. The authorities of cross-border regions can use the results of the research to adjust tourism policy under the current restrictions and increased global risks. The application of mechanisms and methods of territorial planning and management will depend on the level of tourism and recreational potential. For regions with high and above-average potential, the emphasis should be on participation in federal projects, the development of cluster initiatives, and the application of a diversification strategy. Regions with medium and low potential should focus on the domestic tourist flow, develop inter-regional cooperation, and focus on the strategy of gaining a competitive advantage. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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19 pages, 2011 KiB  
Article
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Growth and Monetary Policy: An Analysis from the DSGE Model in Vietnam
by Trung Duc Nguyen, Anh Hoang Le, Eleftherios I. Thalassinos and Lanh Kim Trieu
Economies 2022, 10(7), 159; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10070159 - 01 Jul 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5013
Abstract
Facing the current complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to medical efforts on disease prevention and treatment, governments of countries also have to come up with solutions to deal with the negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy. This study [...] Read more.
Facing the current complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to medical efforts on disease prevention and treatment, governments of countries also have to come up with solutions to deal with the negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy. This study aims to provide specific, comprehensive, and scientific estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. By using the Bayesian method to estimate DSGE models, research results show that a shock increase by one standard deviation (about 1.49% increase in the probability of a COVID-19 outbreak) to the Covid status variable immediately reduces the output gap by 0.94%. However, this effect only lasts for one quarter, and the output gap widens again. Meanwhile, refinancing interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate changes also have an immediate decline in response to this shock, but the magnitude of the reduction is relatively small. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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22 pages, 914 KiB  
Article
Impact of COVID-19 on the Russian Labor Market: Comparative Analysis of the Physical and Informational Spread of the Coronavirus
by Dmitriy Rodionov, Anastasia Ivanova, Olga Konnikova and Evgenii Konnikov
Economies 2022, 10(6), 136; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10060136 - 09 Jun 2022
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2828
Abstract
The aim of the article is to investigate the impact of the new coronavirus infection on the Russian labor market and to suppose the actions to be taken to minimize negative economic consequences. The distinctiveness of this study is the differentiation of the [...] Read more.
The aim of the article is to investigate the impact of the new coronavirus infection on the Russian labor market and to suppose the actions to be taken to minimize negative economic consequences. The distinctiveness of this study is the differentiation of the impact of the physical and informational spread of COVID-19. The informational spread of coronavirus is measured through the dynamics of news messages related to the topic of “coronavirus” in the largest Russian media. The analysis of the average level of wages by type of economic activity, as well as the demand of employers and the number of vacancies, allow testing the hypothesis that the physical and informational spread of coronavirus caused an increase in the number of unemployed, a decrease in average wages in the studied range of economic activities, an increase in supply on the labor market, and a decrease in demand for employees. Another task of the study is to assess the dynamics of related search queries in Yandex (Russian biggest search engine), which can help to reveal the logic in the behavior of the Russian people during the pandemic as well as to understand if the Russian economy, the labor market, and society were prepared for the changes caused by the pandemic. Using a regression modeling methodology, it was found that the influence of the information environment, namely the informational spread of coronavirus, had an even greater impact on studied parameters than the physical spread. A “delay effect of physical consequences” was discovered. The conclusions obtained showed that in the conditions of wide informatization of society, it is necessary to systematically influence the physical and informational spread of coronavirus to minimize the negative consequences of the pandemic on the labor market. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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16 pages, 1040 KiB  
Article
The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese GDP, Trade, and Economy
by Zohal Habibi, Hamed Habibi and Mohammad Aqa Mohammadi
Economies 2022, 10(4), 73; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10040073 - 24 Mar 2022
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 23706
Abstract
COVID-19, a novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has wreaked havoc on global financial markets, economies, and societies. For example, this study looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy and its policy responses (fiscal, monetary, and institutional). This study also examines future issues. [...] Read more.
COVID-19, a novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has wreaked havoc on global financial markets, economies, and societies. For example, this study looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy and its policy responses (fiscal, monetary, and institutional). This study also examines future issues. This study is timely and essential for policymakers and investors worldwide because of China’s size, contribution to global growth, and growing influence. The research shows that the presence of COVID-19 in China has global implications. Because of the virus threat, foreigners avoid mixing with the Chinese. Global tourists have cancelled their plans to visit China, and Chinese tourists cannot visit foreign countries. The rapid spread of the COVID-19 in China has halted normal life. The intensification of the COVID-19 may have long-term effects on China’s economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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17 pages, 840 KiB  
Article
Factors Affecting the Intention to Use Financial Technology among Vietnamese Youth: Research in the Time of COVID-19 and Beyond
by Nguyen Vinh Khuong, Nguyen Thi Thanh Phuong, Nguyen Thanh Liem, Cao Thi Mien Thuy and Tran Hung Son
Economies 2022, 10(3), 57; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10030057 - 28 Feb 2022
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 8772
Abstract
This study focuses on understanding the factors that affect the intention of using financial technology among young Vietnamese in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fintech studies are abundant in developed countries and mainly focus on consumers’ conditions, awareness, habits, and capital. These [...] Read more.
This study focuses on understanding the factors that affect the intention of using financial technology among young Vietnamese in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fintech studies are abundant in developed countries and mainly focus on consumers’ conditions, awareness, habits, and capital. These are expected to differ significantly from the situation in developing countries. We have reviewed factors that can affect the user’s intention, including the Perceived Benefit (PB), Perceived Risk (PR), Belief (B), and Social Influence (SI), and rely on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) model in this research. The survey sample comprises 161 Z-generation consumers with strong flexibility and knowledge about the use of Fintech. We use the PLS-SEM (partial least squares structural equation modeling) analysis method with the SmartPLS software (SmartPLS GmbH, Oststeinbek, Germany) to evaluate the research model. We find that the Perceived Benefit (PB) has the most significant impact on the intention to use Fintech, followed by Belief (B). However, in general, the factors are not significant, perhaps due to many reasons that are intrinsic in Vietnam. Based on this result, service providers, policymakers, and researchers can calibrate the development and research for the following stages. We offer findings different from the previous research, thus especially extending the literature on young people. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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18 pages, 1685 KiB  
Article
Stock Price Forecasting for Jordan Insurance Companies Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Utilizing Off-the-Shelf Technical Analysis Methods
by Ghada A. Altarawneh, Ahmad B. Hassanat, Ahmad S. Tarawneh, Ahmad Abadleh, Malek Alrashidi and Mansoor Alghamdi
Economies 2022, 10(2), 43; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10020043 - 07 Feb 2022
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3534
Abstract
One of the most difficult problems analysts and decision-makers may face is how to improve the forecasting and predicting of financial time series. However, several efforts were made to develop more accurate and reliable forecasting methods. The main purpose of this study is [...] Read more.
One of the most difficult problems analysts and decision-makers may face is how to improve the forecasting and predicting of financial time series. However, several efforts were made to develop more accurate and reliable forecasting methods. The main purpose of this study is to use technical analysis methods to forecast Jordanian insurance companies and accordingly examine their performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several experiments were conducted on the daily stock prices of ten insurance companies, collected by the Amman Stock Exchange, to evaluate the selected technical analysis methods. The experimental results show that the non-parametric Exponential Decay Weighted Average (EDWA) has higher forecasting capabilities than some of the more popular forecasting strategies, such as Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing. As a result, we show that using EDWA to forecast the share price of insurance companies in Jordan is good practice. From a technical analysis perspective, our research also shows that the pandemic had different effects on different Jordanian insurance companies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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24 pages, 8511 KiB  
Article
The COVID-19 Era—Influencers of Uneven Sector Performance: A Canadian Perspective
by Vikkram Singh, Homayoun Shirazi and Jessica Turetken
Economies 2022, 10(2), 40; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10020040 - 02 Feb 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3282
Abstract
The study estimates the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market outcomes of major industrial sectors in Toronto, the largest urban centre in Canada. Using various economic data, we classify the sectors as distressed, stable, and those requiring ongoing monitoring. Furthermore, we estimate [...] Read more.
The study estimates the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market outcomes of major industrial sectors in Toronto, the largest urban centre in Canada. Using various economic data, we classify the sectors as distressed, stable, and those requiring ongoing monitoring. Furthermore, we estimate the expected impact of the pandemic shock using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) method. The results show an uneven impact of the pandemic with adverse outcomes for low-paying front-facing sectors, such as accommodation & food services and manufacturing. The post-pandemic projections show lingering negative implications for various sectors. The insights are helpful for policy recommendations, such as targeted responses to address the declines and structural changes in these sectors because of increasing technology adoption and the resulting labour market challenges. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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11 pages, 491 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Factors Influencing Credit Access of Vietnamese Informal Labors in the Time of COVID-19 Pandemic
by Hung Van Vu and Huong Ho
Economies 2022, 10(1), 8; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10010008 - 27 Dec 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3587
Abstract
Credit is considered as an essential tool to make informal labor’s income better. In order to improve quality of their life, the state should have some supports them in credit access. This study analyzes factors causing credit access of informal labors to be [...] Read more.
Credit is considered as an essential tool to make informal labor’s income better. In order to improve quality of their life, the state should have some supports them in credit access. This study analyzes factors causing credit access of informal labors to be changed in the time of COVID-19 pandemic. Using survey data collected from 2020 VHSSL (2019–2020), this approach has two models including a binary logit model and a multinomial logit model (MLM). The results revealed that the positive factors including education, material, collateral, credit size, credit source, credit debt which are likely to affect to credit access, however age, family size, ethnicity, interest, paid money are negative. Besides, it also concludes that quality of life of informal labor is considerably influenced by credit access, collateral, credit source, credit debt from the observed samples. Additionally, this paper recommends some policies to enhance informal labor’s access to credit and their quality of life. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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21 pages, 3872 KiB  
Article
Early Warning Early Action for the Banking Solvency Risk in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era: A Case Study of Indonesia
by Taufiq Hidayat, Dian Masyita, Sulaeman Rahman Nidar, Fauzan Ahmad and Muhammad Adrissa Nur Syarif
Economies 2022, 10(1), 6; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10010006 - 24 Dec 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4606
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people’s lives and increased the banking solvency risk. This research aimed to build an early warning and early action simulation model to mitigate the solvency risk using the system dynamics methodology and the Powersim Studio 10© software. The [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people’s lives and increased the banking solvency risk. This research aimed to build an early warning and early action simulation model to mitigate the solvency risk using the system dynamics methodology and the Powersim Studio 10© software. The addition of an early action simulation updates the existing early warning model. Through this model, the effect of policy design and options on potential solvency risks is known before implementation. The trials conducted at Bank BRI (BBRI) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI) showed that the model had the ability to provide an early warning of the potential increase in bank solvency risk when the loan restructuring policy is revoked. It also simulates the effectiveness of management’s policy options to mitigate these risks. This research used publicly accessible banking data and analysis. Bank management could also take advantage of this model through a self-stimulation facility developed in this study to accommodate their needs using the internal data. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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32 pages, 2501 KiB  
Article
Stock Market Reactions during Different Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cases of Italy and Spain
by Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene and Julius Kviklis
Economies 2022, 10(1), 3; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10010003 - 22 Dec 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 5233
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-induced lockdowns and quarantine establishments have inevitably affected individuals, businesses, and governments. At the same time, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on financial markets all over the world and caused an increased level of [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-induced lockdowns and quarantine establishments have inevitably affected individuals, businesses, and governments. At the same time, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on financial markets all over the world and caused an increased level of uncertainty; the stock markets were no exception either. Most of the studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets are based either on the analysis of a relatively short period (the beginning of pandemic) or a longer period, which, in turn, is very heterogeneous in terms of both the information available on the COVID-19 virus and the measures taken to contain the virus and address the consequences of the pandemic. However, it is very important to assess the impact not only at the beginning of the pandemic but also in the subsequent periods and to compare the nature of this impact; the studies of this type are still fragmentary. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets of two of the most severely affected European countries—Italy and Spain. To reach the aim of the research OLS regression models, heteroscedasticity-corrected models, GARCH (1,1) models, and VAR-based impulse response functions are employed. The results reveal that the stock market reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic differs depending on the country and period analyzed: OLS regression and heteroscedasticity-corrected models have not revealed the statistically significant impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, while impulse response functions demonstrated the non-zero primary response of analyzed markets to the COVID-19 shock, and GARCH models (in the case of Spain) confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic increased the volatility of stock market return. This research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive impact assessment both during the whole pre-vaccination period of the pandemic and during different stages of this period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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8 pages, 969 KiB  
Article
The Impact of COVID-19 on the US Economy: The Multiplier Effects of Tourism
by Nikolaos Rodousakis and George Soklis
Economies 2022, 10(1), 2; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies10010002 - 22 Dec 2021
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 6655
Abstract
This article explores the multiplier effects on domestic product, employment, and the external sector of the US economy due to the decline of tourism activities during the pandemic. For this purpose, we use an input-output model and the latest available input-output data from [...] Read more.
This article explores the multiplier effects on domestic product, employment, and the external sector of the US economy due to the decline of tourism activities during the pandemic. For this purpose, we use an input-output model and the latest available input-output data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD’s) database. It was found that for every USD million decrease in tourism receipts, the net output decreases about USD 1.53 million, the level of employment decreases about 16.86 persons, imports decrease about USD 0.20 million, while the comparative analysis of these results with the economy’s average multipliers indicates that tourism constitutes a key sector of the US economy. From the evaluation of the results, it is deduced that the decline of tourism activities recorded in the year 2020 accounts for about one-fourth of the observed recession in the US economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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16 pages, 392 KiB  
Article
The Evolution and Takeoff of the Ecuadorian Economic Groups
by Ana Belén Tulcanaza-Prieto and Manuel Eugenio Morocho-Cayamcela
Economies 2021, 9(4), 188; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies9040188 - 01 Dec 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4218
Abstract
An economic group is a collection of parent and subsidiary corporations that operates as a single economic organism under the same legislature of control. The decisions taken by the economic groups in any country are among the most influential factors that impact its [...] Read more.
An economic group is a collection of parent and subsidiary corporations that operates as a single economic organism under the same legislature of control. The decisions taken by the economic groups in any country are among the most influential factors that impact its market and the country’s economic political scenario. This work studies the impact of the Ecuadorian economic groups from 2015 to 2019, where a historical peak of 300 economic groups was reached. However, the taxes representativeness of the Ecuadorian economic groups remained stable during the same period of analysis. We analyzed the financial and fiscal variables of the Ecuadorian ranking of firms, and detected the following of its economic groups: (i) They are still concentrating wealth despite the implementation of hard government policies to transparent the financial and economic information; (ii) They tend to compete in oligopolistic markets, given that their economic and financial decisions are interconnected with their family firms or consortium groups; (iii) They operate in a behavioral nature that follows a linear association between the total income, total assets, total equity, and total tax collection. We hope this work will serve as a future reference for researchers focused on the economic groups of Ecuador and Latin American countries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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13 pages, 309 KiB  
Article
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions’ Determinants: New Empirical Evidence from Quasi-Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models
by Han-Sol Lee, Ekaterina A. Degtereva and Alexander M. Zobov
Economies 2021, 9(4), 184; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies9040184 - 18 Nov 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 6334
Abstract
The cross-border movement of capital has suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic since December 2019. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic for multinational companies to withdraw giant global value chains (GVCs) overnight because of the pandemic. Instead, active discussions and achievements of deals in cross-border [...] Read more.
The cross-border movement of capital has suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic since December 2019. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic for multinational companies to withdraw giant global value chains (GVCs) overnight because of the pandemic. Instead, active discussions and achievements of deals in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are expected in the post-COVID-19 era among various other market entry modes, considering the growing demand in high technologies in societies. This paper analyzes particular determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) during the pandemic year (2020) based on cross-sectional datasets by employing quasi-Poisson and negative binomial regression models. According to the empirical evidence, COVID-19 indices do not hamper M&A deals in general. This indicates that managerial capabilities of the coronavirus, not the outbreak itself, determined locational decisions of M&A deals during the pandemic. In this vein, it is expected that the vaccination rate will become a key factor of locational decision for M&A deals in the near future. Furthermore, countries that have been outstanding in coping with COVID-19 and thus serve as a good example for other nations may seize more opportunities to take a leap forward. In addition, as hypothesized, the results present positive and significant associations with M&A deals and the SDG index, confirming the resource-based theory of internationalization. In particular, the achievement of SDGs seems to exercise much influence in developing countries for M&A bidders during the pandemic year. This indicates that the pandemic demands a new zeitgeist that pursues growth while resolving existing but disregarded environmental issues and cherishes humanitarian values, for all countries, non-exceptionally, standing at the start line of the post-COVID-19 era. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
17 pages, 869 KiB  
Article
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impacts on Tourism Business in a Developing City: Insight from Vietnam
by Da Van Huynh, Thuy Thi Kim Truong, Long Hai Duong, Nhan Trong Nguyen, Giang Vu Huong Dao and Canh Ngoc Dao
Economies 2021, 9(4), 172; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/economies9040172 - 05 Nov 2021
Cited by 31 | Viewed by 30631
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has generally destroyed the global tourism industry and threatened the recovery of destinations in developing countries facing more challenges from increasingly serious waves of the pandemic. Although many studies have attempted to measure the general impacts of COVID-19, very little [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic has generally destroyed the global tourism industry and threatened the recovery of destinations in developing countries facing more challenges from increasingly serious waves of the pandemic. Although many studies have attempted to measure the general impacts of COVID-19, very little research has been conducted to assess its overall impact on specific tourism destinations throughout many waves of the pandemic. This research aims to explore how a tourism economy in a developing country context has been damaged after many waves of COVID-19. A typical emerging city in Vietnam experiencing three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic was selected as a case study. The study recruited 40 representatives of tourism-related organizations for in-depth interviews, while 280 questionnaires were distributed to participants from different tourism organizations. The findings indicate that the majority of tourism businesses in the examined case study seriously suffered from the pandemic, and very few tourism-related enterprises were able to recover after the first wave of infection. Unfortunately, the tourism business sectors were found to be on the brink of bankruptcy or facing permanent shutdown after the third wave. All tourism enterprises generally appeared to experience a sharp drop in the number of customers, tourism revenue, service facilities and exploitation, as well as employee downsizing, but the degree of downturn differed among the examined enterprises. Among the tourism enterprises, travel agencies and the accommodation sector were found to suffer the greatest economic losses compared to other stakeholders. In general, the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the tourism business in Vietnam is a big concern, which may require a timely economic policy response and financial scheme to better support local enterprises in coping with the challenges during post-pandemic recovery. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy)
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