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State of the Art in Computational Intelligence Approaches for Energy Load Forecasting in Smart Energy Management Grids

A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073). This special issue belongs to the section "F5: Artificial Intelligence and Smart Energy".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 March 2022) | Viewed by 8439

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Minas Gerais 31270-901, Brazil
Interests: artificial intelligence; machine learning; optimization; time series forecasting

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Guest Editor
Instituto Federal do Norte de Minas – IFNMG, Januária 39400-149, Brazil
Interests: data science; machine learning; fuzzy time series

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Load forecasting is an important tool in smart energy management systems, smart grids and micro-grids. Forecasting energy demand is still a challenge, requiring information such as the behavior of inidividual users, weather forecasting, and econometric variables, all to provide accurate predictions of residential, commercial and industrial consumption patterns. The ultimate goal is that energy providers can improve their operations, reduce costs and provide better and more reliable services.

To this end, many researchers are developing artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions that offer load forecasting to optimize operation and planning of energy systems. There are several statistical models for modeling and forecasting time series and many computational intelligence (CI)  approaches, such as machine learning techniques, deep learning and hybrid models combining these with fuzzy systems and genetic algorithms. In this Special Issue, we intend to gather the latest contributions in CI-based approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids.

In the context of smart grids, the wide use of electronic sensors and continuous monitoring leads to a scenario of large-scale time series data and large volumes of data, which can be used in prediction and monitoring applications. Therefore, scalable and efficient models are required, working in an increasingly dynamic and uncertain environment, aggregating forecasting capabilities with large volumes and streams of data, multivariate time series data and non-stationary data.

Furthermore, the vast majority of published methods make use of statistical and machine learning techniques that are difficult to interpret. In a context in which the use of such models can define public policies for energy investment, operation and pricing, their intelligibility and transparency becomes increasingly important, highlighting the need for CI-based explainable models.

Prof. Dr. Frederico Gadelha Guimarães
Prof. Dr. Petrônio Cândido de Lima e Silva
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • smart grids
  • smart energy systems
  • smart homes
  • smart buildings
  • energy load forecasting
  • electricity load forecasting
  • time series forecasting
  • machine learning
  • artificial neural networks
  • deep learning
  • fuzzy time series
  • fuzzy systems

Published Papers (2 papers)

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22 pages, 7250 KiB  
Article
Smart Energy Management: A Comparative Study of Energy Consumption Forecasting Algorithms for an Experimental Open-Pit Mine
by Adila El Maghraoui, Younes Ledmaoui, Oussama Laayati, Hicham El Hadraoui and Ahmed Chebak
Energies 2022, 15(13), 4569; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/en15134569 - 22 Jun 2022
Cited by 24 | Viewed by 2817
Abstract
The mining industry’s increased energy consumption has resulted in a slew of climate-related effects on the environment, many of which have direct implications for humanity’s survival. The forecast of mine site energy use is one of the low-cost approaches for energy conservation. Accurate [...] Read more.
The mining industry’s increased energy consumption has resulted in a slew of climate-related effects on the environment, many of which have direct implications for humanity’s survival. The forecast of mine site energy use is one of the low-cost approaches for energy conservation. Accurate predictions do indeed assist us in better understanding the source of high energy consumption and aid in making early decisions by setting expectations. Machine Learning (ML) methods are known to be the best approach for achieving desired results in prediction tasks in this area. As a result, machine learning has been used in several research involving energy predictions in operational and residential buildings. Only few research, however, has investigated the feasibility of machine learning algorithms for predicting energy use in open-pit mines. To close this gap, this work provides an application of machine learning algorithms in the RapidMiner tool for predicting energy consumption time series using real-time data obtained from a smart grid placed in an experimental open-pit mine. This study compares the performance of four machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting daily energy consumption: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and Random Forest (RF). The models were trained, tested, and then evaluated. In order to assess the models’ performance four metrics were used in this study, namely correlation (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and root relative squared error (RRSE). The performance of the models reveals RF to be the most effective predictive model for energy forecasting in similar cases. Full article
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18 pages, 1668 KiB  
Article
Forecasting of Electric Load Using a Hybrid LSTM-Neural Prophet Model
by Md Jamal Ahmed Shohan, Md Omar Faruque and Simon Y. Foo
Energies 2022, 15(6), 2158; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/en15062158 - 16 Mar 2022
Cited by 49 | Viewed by 4936
Abstract
Load forecasting (LF) is an essential factor in power system management. LF helps the utility maximize the utilization of power-generating plants and schedule them both reliably and economically. In this paper, a novel and hybrid forecasting method is proposed, combining a long short-term [...] Read more.
Load forecasting (LF) is an essential factor in power system management. LF helps the utility maximize the utilization of power-generating plants and schedule them both reliably and economically. In this paper, a novel and hybrid forecasting method is proposed, combining a long short-term memory network (LSTM) and neural prophet (NP) through an artificial neural network. The paper aims to predict electric load for different time horizons with improved accuracy as well as consistency. The proposed model uses historical load data, weather data, and statistical features obtained from the historical data. Multiple case studies have been conducted with two different real-time data sets on three different types of load forecasting. The hybrid model is later compared with a few established methods of load forecasting found in the literature with different performance metrics: mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), sum of square error (SSE), and regression coefficient (R). Moreover, a guideline with various attributes is provided for different types of load forecasting considering the applications of the proposed model. The results and comparisons from our test cases showed that the proposed hybrid model improved the forecasting accuracy for three different types of load forecasting over other forecasting techniques. Full article
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