Special Issue "Mathematical Modeling for Understanding Viral Infections Within-Host and Between-Host"

A special issue of Epidemiologia (ISSN 2673-3986).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 November 2021.

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra
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Guest Editor
Department of Mathematics, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Interests: mathematical modeling; infectious diseases; epidemics; viral dynamics
Dr. Hana Dobrovolny
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University (TCU), Fort Worth, TX 76129, USA
Interests: mathematical modeling; infectious diseases; viral dynamics; epidemics

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The current COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that mathematical modeling in conjunction with computational techniques and statistical analysis plays an important role in the qualitative and quantitative understanding of epidemics. Because of the current pandemic, there has been a great and rapid advance in scientific knowledge for these types of epidemic emergencies. Population scale models have provided valuable information for public health authorities at local and national levels, allowing them to assess the effect of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Moreover, models have been used to analyze the effects of vaccination programs and the appearance of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. At the within-host level, models of viral dynamics have helped to assess the possibility of re-purposing antivirals in order to treat the emerging epidemic. In order to be prepared for the next pandemic, we need to continue to refining mathematical tools for analyzing viral dynamics. Furthermore, a big challenge that we face is the integration of models for within-hosts and between-hosts.

In this Special Issue, we will include recent developments of mathematical modeling techniques for viral infections, covering both the within-host dynamics and population-level dynamics.

Dr. Gilberto Gonzalez-Parra
Dr. Hana Dobrovolny
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Epidemiologia is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1000 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • mathematical modeling
  • epidemics
  • viral dynamics
  • coinfection
  • antiviral therapy
  • multiscale modeling
  • dynamical systems
  • vaccination
  • mutation

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

Article
On Deterministic and Stochastic Multiple Pathogen Epidemic Models
Epidemiologia 2021, 2(3), 325-337; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2030025 - 12 Aug 2021
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Abstract
In this paper, we consider a stochastic epidemic model with two pathogens. In order to analyze the coexistence of two pathogens, we compute numerically the expectation time until extinction (the mean persistence time), which satisfies a stationary partial differential equation with degenerate variable [...] Read more.
In this paper, we consider a stochastic epidemic model with two pathogens. In order to analyze the coexistence of two pathogens, we compute numerically the expectation time until extinction (the mean persistence time), which satisfies a stationary partial differential equation with degenerate variable coefficients, related to backward Kolmogorov equation. I use the finite element method in order to solve this equation, and we implement it in FreeFem++. The main conclusion of this paper is that the deterministic and stochastic epidemic models differ considerably in predicting coexistence of the two diseases and in the extinction outcome of one of them. Now, the main challenge would be to find an explanation for this result. Full article
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Article
Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach
Epidemiologia 2021, 2(3), 271-293; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/epidemiologia2030021 - 20 Jul 2021
Viewed by 599
Abstract
The first round of vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in early December of 2020 in a few countries. There are several vaccines, and each has a different efficacy and mechanism of action. Several countries, for example, the United Kingdom and the [...] Read more.
The first round of vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in early December of 2020 in a few countries. There are several vaccines, and each has a different efficacy and mechanism of action. Several countries, for example, the United Kingdom and the USA, have been able to develop consistent vaccination programs where a great percentage of the population has been vaccinated (May 2021). However, in other countries, a low percentage of the population has been vaccinated due to constraints related to vaccine supply and distribution capacity. Countries such as the USA and the UK have implemented different vaccination strategies, and some scholars have been debating the optimal strategy for vaccine campaigns. This problem is complex due to the great number of variables that affect the relevant outcomes. In this article, we study the impact of different vaccination regimens on main health outcomes such as deaths, hospitalizations, and the number of infected. We develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to focus on this important health policy issue. Thus, we are able to identify the optimal strategy regarding vaccination campaigns. We find that for vaccines with high efficacy (>70%) after the first dose, the optimal strategy is to delay inoculation with the second dose. On the other hand, for a low first dose vaccine efficacy, it is better to use the standard vaccination regimen of 4 weeks between doses. Thus, under the delayed second dose option, a campaign focus on generating a certain immunity in as great a number of people as fast as possible is preferable to having an almost perfect immunity in fewer people first. Therefore, based on these results, we suggest that the UK implemented a better vaccination campaign than that in the USA with regard to time between doses. The results presented here provide scientific guidelines for other countries where vaccination campaigns are just starting, or the percentage of vaccinated people is small. Full article
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