Climate change is a major factor influencing the species distribution and population diversity of living creatures. In this study, the ecological niche model (ENM) MaxEnt was used to evaluate habitat suitability and predict potential habitats of two sympatric fig species, i.e., Ficus squamosa and F. heterostyla, in the Xishuangbanna region of China. Results indicated that mean diurnal range, isothermality, cation exchange capacity (at pH 7), and temperature seasonality were key variables influencing habitat suitability for F. squamosa. However, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest quarter showed the greatest contributions to F. heterostyla distribution. During the current period, the habitat suitability distributions of both Ficus species were considerably higher than known occurrences. In the future, potentially suitable distribution areas for both species will reduce overall across the whole study area, although some expansion may occur by 2070. Niche overlap of suitable areas for both species was initially high and then declined in the current period and future epochs in the RCP 2.6 scenario, but increased in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In short, the responses of both Ficus species to climate change differed. Thus, specific actions such as ex situ conservation and assisted migration may be needed to conserve both species. Full article

Background. Since the mid-20th century, massive dieback of coniferous forests has been observed in the temperate and boreal zones across North America and Northern Eurasia. The first hypotheses explaining forest dieback were associated with industrial air pollution (acid rain). At the end of the century, new hypotheses emerged that supported critical climate-induced aridization to explain forest dieback. Many studies were based on the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) drought index. Our goals were to investigate if the SPEI drought index was a suitable metric to reflect drought conditions in wet and moist dark-needled forests in the South Siberian Mountains (Mts) and if droughts trigger the dieback of those forests. Methods. We calculated the SPEI drought index, the annual moisture index AMI, potential evapotranspiration PET, and water balance dynamics for the period 1961–2019 for four transects in the South Siberian Mts. where decline/dieback of dark-needled Siberian pine and fir forests were identified in situ. Climate data from nine weather stations located at lower and upper elevations of each transect were used to calculate climatic index dynamics for the 1961–2019 period to identify dry and wet phases of the period. Results. Our findings showed that climatic moisture/dryness indices have rarely gone down to high risk levels during the last 60 years (1961–2019). AMI did not reach the critical limit, 2.25, characteristic of the lower border for the dark-needled taiga. SPEI values < −1.5 represent drought stress conditions for dark-needled conifers at the lower border, and these conditions occurred 3–4 times during the 60-year period. However, the annual water balance stayed positive in those years in wet and moist forests at mid-to-high elevations. Trees are known to survive occasional (1–2) dry years. We found that dark-needled conifer dieback often occurs in wet years with plentiful rain rather than in drought years. We found forest dieback was associated with the westerlies that bring atmospheric pollution from the west at 50–56 N latitudes, where the air masses cross populated regions that have widespread industrial complexes. Conclusions. We concluded that the observed decline of dark-needled conifers at middle-to-high elevations across the South Siberia’s Mts was conditioned by several plausible causes, among which air pollution seems to be more credible, rather than dry climatic conditions, as cited in recent literature. Results are essential for understanding these ecosystems and others as our planet changes. Other causes and mechanisms should be further investigated, which would necessitate creating infrastructure that supports multi-disciplinary, inter-agency teamwork of plant physiologists, foresters, chemists, etc. Full article

We presented a case study and associated method for stand scale assessment of the duration of the climate change mitigation benefit provided by increasing forest harvest age (i.e., the age a stand is harvested). We used stand yield curves and newly developed equations to estimate carbon stocks in various boreal forest ecosystem pools in Ontario, Canada. The proposed method was applied to forest identified as available for harvesting in management plans for three forest management units with a combined area of more than 1900 km². Our analysis indicated that a 10-year increase in harvest age did not provide a mitigation benefit (reduced carbon stock) in about half the available harvest area (45.5%, 61.9%, and 62.1% of the total available harvest area in the management units). Increasing the harvest age by 10 years resulted in a mitigation benefit lasting longer than 25 years for 15.1%, 16.0%, and 13.0% of the total available harvest area in the management units. The results suggest that increasing harvest age may have limited mitigation potential in Ontario’s managed boreal forests in the short-term but can reduce overall carbon stocks in the longer term. Full article

Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation. Full article

Over the coming decades, climate change can decrease forest productivity and stability in many semiarid regions. Tree-ring width (TRW) analysis allows estimation of tree sensitivity to droughts, including resistance (Rt) and resilience (Rc) indexes. It helps to find adaptive potential of individual trees and forest populations. On a forest stand scale, it is affected by habitat conditions and species’ ecophysiological characteristics, and on individual scale by tree genotype, age, and size. This study investigated TRW response to droughts in forest-steppe and sub-taiga of southern Siberia for keystone species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.). Chronologies reacted positively to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the previous July–September and current April–July. Depressed tree growth across region and droughts lasting over both intra-seasonal intervals were registered in 1965, 1974, and 1999. TRW-based Rt and Rc for these droughts did not reveal age- or size-related patterns. Higher growth stability indexes were observed for birch in sub-taiga and for conifers in forest-steppe. Larch at all sites had disadvantage against pine for 1965 and 1999 droughts aggravated by pest outbreaks, but adapted better to drought in 1974. Site aridity affected both tree growth stability and intensity of climatic response. Full article

Quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) is widely used to resolve a fundamental problem of tree responses to past, ongoing and forecasted climate changes. Potentially, QWA data can be considered as a new proxy source for long-term climate reconstruction with higher temporal resolution than traditional dendroclimatic data. In this paper, we considered a tracheidogram as a set of two interconnected variables describing the dynamics of seasonal variability in the radial cell size and cell wall thickness in conifer trees. We used 1386 cell profiles (tracheidograms) obtained for seven Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees growing in the cold semiarid conditions of Southern Siberia over the years 1813–2018. We developed a “deviation tracheidogram” approach for adequately describing the traits of tree-ring formation in different climate conditions over a long-term time span. Based on the NbClust approach and K-means method, the deviation tracheidograms were reliably split into four clusters (classes) with clear bio-ecological interpretations (from the most favorable growth conditions to worse ones) over the years 1813–2018. It has been shown that the obtained classes of tracheidograms can be directly associated with different levels of water deficit, for both the current and previous growing seasons. The tracheidogram cluster reconstruction shows that the entire 19th century was characterized by considerable water deficit, which has not been revealed by the climate-sensitive tree-ring chronology of the study site. Therefore, the proposed research offers new perspectives for better understanding how tree radial growth responds to changing seasonal climate and a new independent proxy for developing long-term detailed climatic reconstructions through the detailed analysis of long-term archives of QWA data for different conifer species and various forest ecosystems in future research. Full article

The effect of climate on tree growth has received increased interest in the context of climate change. However, most studies have been limited geographically and with respect to species. Here, sixteen tree species of western North America were used to investigate the response of trees to climate change. Forest inventory data from 36,944 stands established between 1600 and 1968 throughout western North America were summarized. The height growth (top height at a breast-height age of 50 years) of healthy dominant and co-dominant trees was related to annual and summer temperatures, the annual and summer Palmer Drought Severity Indexes (PDSIs), and the tree establishment date (ED). Climate-induced height growth patterns were then tested to determine links to the spatial environment (geographic locations and soil properties), the species’ range (coastal, interior, or both), and traits (shade tolerance and leaf form). Analysis was performed using a linear mixed model (total species) and a general linear model (species scale). Climate change was globally beneficial, except for Alaska yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D. Don) Spach), and growth patterns were magnified for coastal-ranged, high-shade-tolerant, and broadleaf species, and mostly at the northernmost extents of these species’ ranges. Nevertheless, growth patterns were more complex with respect to soil properties. A growth decline for some species was observed at higher latitudes and elevations and was possibly related to increased cloudiness, precipitation, or drought (in interior areas). These results highlight the spatio-temporal complexity of the growth response to recent global climate change. Full article

The species richness and composition of macro- and microfungi on vine species in the parks of Ekaterinburg City (the Ural macroregion, Russia) located in the southern boreal vegetation subzone in a continental climate was studied. The average annual air temperature has increased by 3.1 °C since the beginning of the 20th century; therefore, the conditions for the growth of vines have improved. These conditions include warmer winters and, consequently, less frost damage to perennial plants. Due to the warmer climate, the area of vines grown in the city has increased five times over half a century, and the yield of grapes has grown 3.7 times. The alien East Asian vines are the most dominate vine species cultivated, while European, North American, and native plant species, including archaeophytes, together only represent a handful of the species cultivated. At the same time, 65% of the area of woody vines in the city is covered by a North American species, namely Parthenocissus quinquefolia. An increase in the number of vine species, their biomass, and covered areas contributes to an increase in the number of fungal species growing on these vine species. In total, 81 species of phytopathogenic and 87 species of saprobic macro- and microfungi have been recorded during the century-long history of mycological research in Ekaterinburg City. Mycobiota of vines in Ekaterinburg City is biogeographically heterogeneous and 1.1–3.2 times richer in comparison with ones of the regions located on the northern limit of natural ranges of the vines. Recorded macrofungi (Basidiomycota) are predominantly present on native boreal species; however, some exotic tropical and subtropical East Asian fungal species (that have not ever been recorded on other substrates in the natural forests of the Urals and Siberia) are found here too. Recorded microfungi are highly specialized vine-associated species (mainly Ascomycota) that are widespread within the natural ranges of the vines and absent in the boreal zone of Eurasia: there are 63 vine-associated species (15 macro- and 48 microfungi) in Ekaterinburg that are not found in the Urals on other substrates. Many of these species have been recorded for the first time in this study, so we consider that they invaded Ekaterinburg City in the last 20 years, likely due to the warming climate observed over the last decades in the region. There are 19 and 32 species of phytopathogenic fungi collected in the families Cucurbitaceae and Vitaceae, respectively. During the past 40 years, the recorded fungal species richness has increased by 16% on Cucurbitaceae, as well as 37% on grapes. In this study, the distribution of vine-associated fungi, including phytopathogenic fungal species, from the nearest regions of ancient vine culture (Southern European Russia and the Caucasus, Central Asia, the south of the Russian Far East) to the boreal regions of the Urals were investigated. The increase in the range of these phytopathogenic fungal species can lead to significant economic losses to the regional agricultural sector. Full article

The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier. Full article

Scots pine is one of the dominant conifer species in forest ecosystems of the boreal zone in Eurasia. Knowledge of the genetic structure and the level of genetic variability of Scots pine populations is relevant for the development of measures aimed at conservation of species’ diversity. In this study, we used ten paternally inherited chloroplast microsatellite loci to investigate the genetic diversity of nineteen Scots pine populations from Middle Siberia and the Romanian Carpathians. The results of the study showed high genetic diversity (H_CP = 0.91–1.00) in all of the investigated populations. The cpSSR analysis yielded a total of 158 haplotypes. The majority of the haplotypes (85%) were detected only once (unique haplotypes). Three common haplotypes were found between the Carpathian and the Siberian populations of Scots pine. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that only 3% of the variation occurred among populations from Middle Siberia and 6% of the variation existed among populations from the Carpathian Mountains. Overall, we found a weak geographic population structure in Scots pine from Middle Siberia and the Romanian Carpathians. The present study on genetic diversity in the Siberian and the Carpathian populations of Scots pine may contribute to the sustainable management and conservation of Scots pine genetic resources in Middle Siberia and the Romanian Carpathians. Full article

Akebia trifoliata (Thunb.) Koidz., Akebia trifoliata subsp. australis (Diels) T. Shimizu and Akebia quinata (Houtt.) Decne. are the source plants of the traditional Chinese medicines AKEBIAE CAULIS and AKEBIAE FRUCTUS, and have high pharmaceutical value. However, the resource reserve of these plants has dramatically declined due to habitat destruction, which has seriously affected their adequate supply and sustainable utilization. A poor knowledge of the potential distribution of these medicinal materials would seriously constrain the protective exploitation of wild resources and the establishment of new cultivations. In this study, based on the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of these three Akebia taxa under current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s) climate conditions. Our findings showed that the potentially suitable areas of these three Akebia taxa were mainly distributed in China at 101.8–121.9° E and 23.5–34.6° N. Temperature played a more significant role than precipitation in affecting the distribution. The dominant bioclimatic variable that affected the distribution of A. trifoliata and A. quinata in China was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO06). For A. trifoliata subsp. australis, the mean diurnal range (BIO02) was the dominant variable influencing its distribution. Compared with current conditions, the moderate- and high-suitability areas of these three Akebia taxa were predicted to shrink towards the core areas, while the low-suitability areas were all observed to increase from the 2030s to the 2090s. With the increase in radiative forcing of SSP, the low-impact areas of these three Akebia taxa showed a decreasing trend as a whole. Our results illustrate the impact of climate change on the distribution of Akebia, and would provide references for the sustainable utilization of Akebia’s resources. Full article