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Advances in Statistical Seismology
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Advances in Statistical Seismology

A topical collection in Geosciences (ISSN 2076-3263). This collection belongs to the section "Natural Hazards".

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Editor

Dr. Luciano Telesca

E-Mail Website
Collection Editor
Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, PZ, Italy
Interests: geophysical time series analysis; statistical methods for the investigation of geophysical processes; point processes; fractals and multifractals; graphs and networks; complexity; information theory
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Topical Collection Information

Dear Colleagues,

Statistical seismology has been becoming an increasingly developing scientific topic, interfacing physics-based and statistics-based modeling of earthquake occurrence. As complex phenomena, earthquakes require the application of different physicostatistical methods to be fully understood. Earthquakes are a process that evolves in the space–time–magnitude domain, and therefore, different physical and statistical methods would be necessary to analyse them in each domain. The quantification and comprehension of the distribution of seismicity in time, magnitude, and space is only one of the multiple aspects covered by statistical seismology. In fact, it includes statistical behaviour of earthquakes in time, space, and magnitude, earthquake physics, seismic hazard estimation, time-dependent earthquake forecasting, earthquake-induced ground shaking, and testing the forecasting power of physical and statistical models of seismicity. However, the analysis of earthquake-related geophysical variables (geochemical, geoelectrical, magnetotelluric, electromagnetic, acoustic, etc.) can also be reasonably incorporated into statistical seismology since these can contribute to deepen the nature of earthquake phenomena and provide useful ingredient for earthquake forecasting. Fractal, multifractal, informational, topological, or non-extensive methods represent just some of the most recent methods used to disclose different physical and statistical properties of earthquakes.

Authors are encouraged to submit original research articles, case studies, reviews, position papers, and theoretical papers including but not limited to the following topics:

  • Statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues and their problems;
  • Models and techniques for analyzing seismicity;
  • Earthquake predictability and related hypothesis testing;
  • Analysis of earthquake precursors;
  • Seismic hazard and risk.

Dr. Luciano Telesca
Collection Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the collection website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Geosciences is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Published Papers (6 papers)

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2024

Jump to: 2023, 2022

11 pages, 931 KiB  
Brief Report
What Is the Effect of Seismic Swarms on Short-Term Seismic Hazard and Gutenberg-Richter b-Value Temporal Variation? Examples from Central Italy, October–November 2023
by Ilaria Spassiani and Matteo Taroni
Geosciences 2024, 14(2), 49; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences14020049 - 08 Feb 2024
Viewed by 1056
Abstract
A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, [...] Read more.
A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, the short-term seismic hazard could also change during seismic swarms, i.e., a sequence with several small-/medium-sized events. The goal of this work is to quantify these changes, using the Italian Operational Earthquake Forecasting system, and also estimate the variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value. We focus our attention on three seismic swarms that occurred in Central Italy in October–November 2023. Our results indicate that short-term variations in seismic hazard are limited, less than an order of magnitude, and also that b-value variations are not significant. Placing our findings in a more general context, we can state that according to currently available models and catalogs, the occurrence of seismic swarms does not significantly affect the short-term seismic hazard. Full article
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23 pages, 1088 KiB  
Article
Statistical Analysis of Mt. Vesuvius Earthquakes Highlights Pitfalls in Magnitude Estimation
by Cataldo Godano and Nicola Alessandro Pino
Geosciences 2024, 14(1), 15; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences14010015 - 03 Jan 2024
Viewed by 1467
Abstract
Here, we characterize the statistical behaviour of the Mt. Vesuvius seismicity using distinct available catalogues. Our analysis confirms that for this area, the GR distribution exhibited two scaling regimes of the b-value, not commonly observed for the standard frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. [...] Read more.
Here, we characterize the statistical behaviour of the Mt. Vesuvius seismicity using distinct available catalogues. Our analysis confirms that for this area, the GR distribution exhibited two scaling regimes of the b-value, not commonly observed for the standard frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. By assuming a physical cause, we tested four different hypotheses for the source of the break in the scaling: finite size effect, depth variations in the b-value, radial dependence in the b-value, and different b-values for swarm and non-swarm events. None of the above reasons are able to explain the observation. Thus, we investigated the possibility of some pitfalls in magnitude estimation. Based on our analysis, we suggest there is a bias in the duration magnitude the catalogues are based on. This is due to the arbitrary extrapolation to smaller magnitudes of a linear regression derived for earthquakes with m≥3.0. When a suitable correction is applied to the estimated magnitude, the GR distribution assumes the usual shape, with a b-value closer to that usually observed in volcanic areas. Finally, the analysis of the time variation of some statistical parameters reveals that the state of the volcano appears to be stationary over the entire analysed period, possibly with only a slight decrease in the b-value, indicating a small reduction in differential stress. Full article
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2023

Jump to: 2024, 2022

14 pages, 6226 KiB  
Article
Revisiting Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-Depth Seismicity: Some Statistical Characteristics and Seismic Quiescence Testing
by Bogdan Enescu, Cristian Ghita, Iren-Adelina Moldovan and Mircea Radulian
Geosciences 2023, 13(7), 219; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences13070219 - 24 Jul 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1432
Abstract
Background: The intermediate-depth seismicity in the Vrancea region (Romania) is characterized by localized and persistent earthquake activity that culminates about two or three times in a century with the occurrence of a large event (M ≥ 6.5). Here we have revisited some important [...] Read more.
Background: The intermediate-depth seismicity in the Vrancea region (Romania) is characterized by localized and persistent earthquake activity that culminates about two or three times in a century with the occurrence of a large event (M ≥ 6.5). Here we have revisited some important seismicity characteristics, using earthquake catalog data spanning two different time periods: 1960–1999 and 2005–2013. Methods: we have determined the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood procedure, and estimated the parameter β to quantify anomalous seismicity rate decreases and increases. Results: by using data from the first period, we have confirmed the existence of a decreased b-value in the deepest part of the seismogenic zone; by using data from the second period, we have statistically confirmed the seismic quiescence that preceded the occurrence of the 1977 M7.4 Vrancea earthquake. Conclusions: the decreased b-value has been interpreted either in terms of an increased lithostatic stress with depth or as an indicator of the depth range where the next major Vrancea earthquake may occur. The time variation of the seismicity parameter β may reveal anomalous seismic quiescence and increased earthquake rates that may precede the occurrence of large earthquakes. Full article
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2022

Jump to: 2024, 2023

26 pages, 6608 KiB  
Review
A 20-Year Journey of Forecasting with the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” Model
by David A. Rhoades, Sepideh J. Rastin and Annemarie Christophersen
Geosciences 2022, 12(9), 349; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences12090349 - 19 Sep 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1690
Abstract
Nearly 20 years ago, the observation that major earthquakes are generally preceded by an increase in the seismicity rate on a timescale from months to decades was embedded in the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” (EEPAS) model. EEPAS has since been [...] Read more.
Nearly 20 years ago, the observation that major earthquakes are generally preceded by an increase in the seismicity rate on a timescale from months to decades was embedded in the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” (EEPAS) model. EEPAS has since been successfully applied to regional real-world and synthetic earthquake catalogues to forecast future earthquake occurrence rates with time horizons up to a few decades. When combined with aftershock models, its forecasting performance is improved for short time horizons. As a result, EEPAS has been included as the medium-term component in public earthquake forecasts in New Zealand. EEPAS has been modified to advance its forecasting performance despite data limitations. One modification is to compensate for missing precursory earthquakes. Precursory earthquakes can be missing because of the time-lag between the end of a catalogue and the time at which a forecast applies or the limited lead time from the start of the catalogue to a target earthquake. An observed space-time trade-off in precursory seismicity, which affects the EEPAS scaling parameters for area and time, also can be used to improve forecasting performance. Systematic analysis of EEPAS performance on synthetic catalogues suggests that regional variations in EEPAS parameters can be explained by regional variations in the long-term earthquake rate. Integration of all these developments is needed to meet the challenge of producing a global EEPAS model. Full article
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15 pages, 4517 KiB  
Article
Characteristic Magnitude and Spatiotemporal Relationships of Aftershocks and Background Earthquakes
by Yi-Hsuan Wu
Geosciences 2022, 12(8), 288; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences12080288 - 25 Jul 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1503
Abstract
Aftershocks, background earthquakes, and their spatiotemporal parameters have been studied for decades for the purpose of hazard assessment and forecasting. Methods for determining these parameters or seismic attributes are becoming increasingly sophisticated and varied; some optimize the results to fit observations using trial [...] Read more.
Aftershocks, background earthquakes, and their spatiotemporal parameters have been studied for decades for the purpose of hazard assessment and forecasting. Methods for determining these parameters or seismic attributes are becoming increasingly sophisticated and varied; some optimize the results to fit observations using trial and error, while others do the same by giving prescriptions for a limited region. Here, we propose a method that is potentially useful in general hazard assessment and forecasting applications. We categorized the earthquakes into two groups, aftershocks (triggered events) and background earthquakes, by introducing the network distance, i.e., the shortest distance between two events of equal magnitude within a modified interevent time, into the k-means clustering, which couples the modified interevent time and magnitude hierarchically. Our results show a bimodal distribution consisting of a power law at shorter network distances and a lognormal distribution at longer network distances, implying that earthquakes of magnitudes larger than the characteristic magnitude, found to be 4.5 for Taiwan and 4.3 for California, may be only weakly linked to other same magnitude earthquakes and hence are hard to be triggered even by events of larger size. Full article
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43 pages, 3284 KiB  
Review
Order Parameter and Entropy of Seismicity in Natural Time before Major Earthquakes: Recent Results
by Panayiotis A. Varotsos, Nicholas V. Sarlis and Efthimios S. Skordas
Geosciences 2022, 12(6), 225; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/geosciences12060225 - 26 May 2022
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2099
Abstract
A lot of work in geosciences has been completed during the last decade on the analysis in the new concept of time, termed natural time, introduced in 2001. The main advances are presented, including, among others, the following: First, the direct experimental verification [...] Read more.
A lot of work in geosciences has been completed during the last decade on the analysis in the new concept of time, termed natural time, introduced in 2001. The main advances are presented, including, among others, the following: First, the direct experimental verification of the interconnection between a Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity and seismicity, i.e., the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity exhibit a clearly detectable minimum when an SES activity starts. These two phenomena are also linked closely in space. Second, the identification of the epicentral area and the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ) by means of the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal as well as the extrema of their fluctuations. An indicative example is the M9 Tohoku EQ in Japan on 11 March 2011. Third, to answer the crucial question—when a magnitude 7 class EQ occurs—whether it is a foreshock or a mainshock. This can be answered by means of the key quantities already mentioned, i.e., the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal along with their fluctuations. The explanation of the experimental findings identified before major EQs is given in a unified way on the basis of a physical model already proposed in the 1980s. Full article
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