Advances and Perspectives in Flood Risk Modeling, Assessment and Communication

A special issue of Hydrology (ISSN 2306-5338). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes and Modelling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2021) | Viewed by 41278

Special Issue Editors

Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, CS, Italy
Interests: flood propagation; rainfall-runoff modeling; river networks; hazard communication; surface irrigation; impacts of climate change; lidar; soil erosion and sediment transport
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
GEAMA (Environmental and Water Engineering Group), Department of Civil Engineering, University of A Coruña, Campus de Elviña s/n, 15008 A Coruña, Spain
Interests: flood hazard modelling; hydrological modelling; urban hydrology; soil erosion; computational hydraulics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Flooding is one of the most frequent and destructive natural hazards, causing devastating damage to life and economies around the world. The impacts of flooding are expected to increase in the future due to several trends, including rising sea levels, increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, urbanization, deforestation, rural-to-urban population shifts and other drivers. Being a natural disaster, urban flood cannot be avoided but the losses occurring due to flood evolution can be prevented by specific mitigation and disaster management plans, in which flood hazard maps play a key role. Flood mapping technology has evolved rapidly over the past decade and several specialized models (atmospheric circulation, hydrological, hydrodynamic, damage and loss models) are used to analyze extreme events. In particular, the advance in modern two-dimensional hydraulic flood models based on the fully dynamic Shallow Water Equations, computing systems, and increasingly available high-quality hydrological and meteorological data allow us to obtain high-resolution local flood hazard information, including water depths and velocities. However, there are several issues which, still today, represent significant challenges both in the definition of flood hazard maps and in the management of inundation events. Among these, ten major research issues are represented by: (1) methods to quantify compound hazard due to river, coastal and pluvial flooding; (2) hydrodynamic-based overland flood models for the generation and propagation of floods at the basin scale; (3) innovative mathematical models for shallow water equations (GPUs, sub-grid models, large scale, etc); (4) methods, models and tools for real-time assessment in early warning systems, supporting civil protection activities; (5) physically-based vulnerability functions and their integration in flood propagation modeling; (6) innovative approaches for the determination of flood hazard in urban areas (detailed hydraulic models, role of microtopography, transport and movement of pedestrians, vehicles and objects); (7) transport of floating material and interaction with riverbed structures; (8) uncertainty in the description of hydrological and hydraulic parameter for flood hazard assessment; (9) models and methods of analysis and prediction of the effects of intense rainfall and flood waves in urban areas; (10) virtual scenarios for flood risk communication to engage people and stakeholders with flood hazard.

This special issue is focused on the recent advances on models and methods for flood hazard/risk management and assessment, exploring also some future perspectives in these fields of research.

Researchers working on these topics are invited are invited to contribute to this Special Issue.

Prof. Dr. Pierfranco Costabile
Prof. Dr. Luis Cea
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • flood risk
  • flood management
  • flood modelling
  • 2D shallow water equations
  • early warning systems
  • compound flooding
  • urban flooding
  • flood hazard communication

Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

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16 pages, 4631 KiB  
Article
Numerical and Experimental Approaches to Estimate Discharge Coefficients and Energy Loss Coefficients in Pressurized Grated Inlets
by Jackson Tellez-Alvarez, Manuel Gómez, Beniamino Russo and Marko Amezaga-Kutija
Hydrology 2021, 8(4), 162; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8040162 - 26 Oct 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2738
Abstract
Numerical models concerning inlet systems are run to assess the hydraulic performance of existing or new systems and estimate the flow interchanges between the surface overland and sewer flows. In most programs, these interactions are modelled using the orifice equation, with estimated discharge [...] Read more.
Numerical models concerning inlet systems are run to assess the hydraulic performance of existing or new systems and estimate the flow interchanges between the surface overland and sewer flows. In most programs, these interactions are modelled using the orifice equation, with estimated discharge coefficients around 0.6. In this paper, discharge values and energy loss coefficients for several pressurized grated inlets were obtained by experimental and numerical approaches and compared. To achieve these goals, a numerical model replicating several experimental tests carried out at the hydraulic laboratory of Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) was produced using a CFD model (Flow 3D). This numerical model was found to be highly sensitive to the mesh size used; however, it was able to accurately simulate the experimental processes. The comparison considered different combinations of pressurized flow though the grate, between 10 to 50 l/s, and different longitudinal gradients. The experimental discharge coefficient was found to increase with surcharging flowrate (ranging from 0.14 and 0.41), whereas the longitudinal gradient was found to have no effect. The discharge coefficients obtained in this study show that the standard 0.6 value commonly used by practitioners should be revised to a range between 0.14 to 0.41, depending on circulating flow and inlet type. In addition, the loss coefficient values range from 0.25 to 3.41. Full article
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22 pages, 38668 KiB  
Article
An Efficient GPU Implementation of a Coupled Overland-Sewer Hydraulic Model with Pollutant Transport
by Javier Fernández-Pato and Pilar García-Navarro
Hydrology 2021, 8(4), 146; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8040146 - 30 Sep 2021
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2085
Abstract
Numerical simulation of flows that consider interaction between overland and drainage networks has become a practical tool to prevent and mitigate flood situations in urban environments, especially when dealing with intense storm events, where the limited capacity of the sewer systems can be [...] Read more.
Numerical simulation of flows that consider interaction between overland and drainage networks has become a practical tool to prevent and mitigate flood situations in urban environments, especially when dealing with intense storm events, where the limited capacity of the sewer systems can be a trigger for flooding. Additionally, in order to prevent any kind of pollutant dispersion through the drainage network, it is very interesting to have a certain monitorization or control over the quality of the water that flows in both domains. In this sense, the addition of a pollutant transport component to both surface and sewer hydraulic models would benefit the global analysis of the combined water flow. On the other hand, when considering a realistic large domain with complex topography or streets structure, a fine spatial discretization is mandatory. Hence the number of grid cells is usually very large and, therefore, it is necessary to use parallelization techniques for the calculation, the use of Graphic Processing Units (GPU) being one of the most efficient due to the leveraging of thousands of processors within a single device. In this work, an efficient GPU-based 2D shallow water flow solver (RiverFlow2D-GPU) is fully coupled with EPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Both models are able to develop a transient water quality analysis taking into account several pollutants. The coupled model, referred to as RiverFlow2D-GPU UD (Urban Drainge) is applied to three real-world cases, covering the most common hydraulic situations in urban hydrology/hydraulics. A UK Environmental Agency test case is used as model validation, showing a good agreement between RiverFlow2D-GPU UD and the rest of the numerical models considered. The efficiency of the model is proven in two more complex domains, leading to a >100x faster simulations compared with the traditional CPU computation. Full article
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14 pages, 4243 KiB  
Article
Service Accessibility Risk (SAR) Assessment for Pluvial and Fluvial Floods in an Urban Context
by Marcello Arosio, Chiara Arrighi, Luigi Cesarini and Mario L. V. Martina
Hydrology 2021, 8(3), 142; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8030142 - 21 Sep 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 1820
Abstract
The development of strategies to adapt to and mitigate the potential adverse consequences of natural hazards requires support from risk assessment studies that quantify the impacts of hazardous events on our society. A comprehensive analysis of risk commonly evaluates the elements exposed to [...] Read more.
The development of strategies to adapt to and mitigate the potential adverse consequences of natural hazards requires support from risk assessment studies that quantify the impacts of hazardous events on our society. A comprehensive analysis of risk commonly evaluates the elements exposed to the hazard probabilistic scenarios and their vulnerabilities. However, while significant advances have been made in the assessment of direct losses, indirect impacts are less frequently examined. This work assesses the indirect consequences of two hydrologic hazards, i.e., pluvial and fluvial floods, in an urban context from a system perspective. It presents a methodology to estimate the services accessibility risk (SAR) that considers the accessibility of roads and the connection between providers and users of services in a city. The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a pilot study in Monza city (northern Italy) considering pluvial and fluvial flood hazard with different return periods. The results in terms of the social and economic impacts are analyzed considering features of age, disability, and the different economic sectors. Full article
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17 pages, 4514 KiB  
Article
Multi-Objective Model-Based Assessment of Green-Grey Infrastructures for Urban Flood Mitigation
by Carlos Martínez, Zoran Vojinovic and Arlex Sanchez
Hydrology 2021, 8(3), 110; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8030110 - 27 Jul 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2675
Abstract
This paper presents the performance quantification of different green-grey infrastructures, including rainfall-runoff and infiltration processes, on the overland flow and its connection with a sewer system. The present study suggests three main components to form the structure of the proposed model-based assessment. The [...] Read more.
This paper presents the performance quantification of different green-grey infrastructures, including rainfall-runoff and infiltration processes, on the overland flow and its connection with a sewer system. The present study suggests three main components to form the structure of the proposed model-based assessment. The first two components provide the optimal number of green infrastructure (GI) practices allocated in an urban catchment and optimal grey infrastructures, such as pipe and storage tank sizing. The third component evaluates selected combined green-grey infrastructures based on rainfall-runoff and infiltration computation in a 2D model domain. This framework was applied in an urban catchment in Dhaka City (Bangladesh) where different green-grey infrastructures were evaluated in relation to flood damage and investment costs. These practices implemented separately have an impact on the reduction of damage and investment costs. However, their combination has been shown to be the best action to follow. Finally, it was proved that including rainfall-runoff and infiltration processes, along with the representation of GI within a 2D model domain, enhances the analysis of the optimal combination of infrastructures, which in turn allows the drainage system to be assessed holistically. Full article
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17 pages, 3416 KiB  
Article
Predicting Outflow Hydrographs of Potential Dike Breaches in a Bifurcating River System Using NARX Neural Networks
by Anouk Bomers
Hydrology 2021, 8(2), 87; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8020087 - 03 Jun 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2885
Abstract
Early flood forecasting systems can mitigate flood damage during extreme events. Typically, the effects of flood events in terms of inundation depths and extents are computed using detailed hydraulic models. However, a major drawback of these models is the computational time, which is [...] Read more.
Early flood forecasting systems can mitigate flood damage during extreme events. Typically, the effects of flood events in terms of inundation depths and extents are computed using detailed hydraulic models. However, a major drawback of these models is the computational time, which is generally in the order of hours to days for large river basins. Gaining insight in the outflow hydrographs in case of dike breaches is especially important to estimate inundation extents. In this study, NARX neural networks that were capable of predicting outflow hydrographs of multiple dike breaches accurately were developed. The timing of the dike failures and the cumulative outflow volumes were accurately predicted. These findings show that neural networks—specifically, NARX networks that are capable of predicting flood time series—have the potential to be used within a flood early warning system in the future. Full article
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20 pages, 10521 KiB  
Article
An Evaluation of Risk-Based Agricultural Land-Use Adjustments under a Flood Management Strategy in a Floodplain
by Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq, Zohreh Rajabi and Nitin Muttil
Hydrology 2021, 8(1), 53; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8010053 - 21 Mar 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3575
Abstract
Agricultural damage due to floods in the Indus basin’s fertile land has been the most damaging natural disaster in Pakistan so far. Earthen dikes are protecting the vast areas of the floodplain from regular flooding. However, the floodplain is attractive to farmers due [...] Read more.
Agricultural damage due to floods in the Indus basin’s fertile land has been the most damaging natural disaster in Pakistan so far. Earthen dikes are protecting the vast areas of the floodplain from regular flooding. However, the floodplain is attractive to farmers due to its fertility and experiences regular crop production within and out of the dike area. This paper evaluates the flood risk in a floodplain of the Chenab river in Pakistan and recommends land-use changes to reduce the flood risk for crops and associated settlements within the study area. The objective of the land-use change is not just to reduce flood losses but also to increase the overall benefits of the floodplain in terms of its Economic Rent (ER). This preliminary study analyses the economic impacts of the risk-based land-use improvements on existing floodplain land uses. Expected Annual Damage (EAD) maps were developed using hydrodynamic models and GIS data. The developed model identified the areas where maize can be economically more productive compared to rice under flood conditions. Promising results were obtained for the settlement relocations. It was also observed that the infra-structure, running parallel to the river, plays a significant role in curtailing the extent of floods. The results show that a combination of structural and non-structural measures proves more effective. The study also recommends the inclusion of social and environmental damages as well as other types of non-structural measures to develop the most effective flood management strategy. Full article
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20 pages, 6371 KiB  
Article
A One-Way Coupled Hydrodynamic Advection-Diffusion Model to Simulate Congested Large Wood Transport
by Elisabetta Persi, Gabriella Petaccia, Stefano Sibilla, Roberto Bentivoglio and Aronne Armanini
Hydrology 2021, 8(1), 21; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8010021 - 27 Jan 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1843
Abstract
An advection-diffusion model is proposed to simulate large wood transport during high flows. The mathematical model is derived from the wood mass balance, taking into consideration both the wood mass concentration and the log orientation, which affects log transport and, most importantly, wood [...] Read more.
An advection-diffusion model is proposed to simulate large wood transport during high flows. The mathematical model is derived from the wood mass balance, taking into consideration both the wood mass concentration and the log orientation, which affects log transport and, most importantly, wood accumulation. Focusing on wood mass transport, the advection-diffusion equation is implemented in a hydrodynamic model to provide a one-way coupled solution of the flow and of the floating wood mass. The model is tested on a large series of flume experiments, involving at least 30 logs and different control parameters (flow Froude number, log length, diameter, release point). The validation through the experimental data shows that the proposed model can predict the correct displacement of the most probable position of the logs and to simulate with a sufficient accuracy the planar diffusion of the wooden mass. Transversal wood distribution is more accurate than the streamwise one, indicating that a higher control on the longitudinal diffusion needs to be implemented. Full article
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18 pages, 12187 KiB  
Article
OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia
by Georgy Ayzel
Hydrology 2021, 8(1), 3; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology8010003 - 06 Jan 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2336
Abstract
Operational national-scale hydrological forecasting systems are widely used in many countries for flood early warning systems and water management. However, this kind of system has never been implemented in Russia. OpenForecast v2—the first national-scale operational runoff forecasting system in Russia—has been developed and [...] Read more.
Operational national-scale hydrological forecasting systems are widely used in many countries for flood early warning systems and water management. However, this kind of system has never been implemented in Russia. OpenForecast v2—the first national-scale operational runoff forecasting system in Russia—has been developed and deployed to fill this gap. OpenForecast v2 delivers 7 day-ahead streamflow forecasts for 843 gauges across Russia. The verification study has been carried out using 244 gauges for which operational streamflow data were openly available and quality-controlled for the entire verification period (14 March–6 July 2020). The results showed that the developed system provides reliable and skillful runoff forecasts for up to one week. The benchmark testing against climatology and persistence forecasts showed that the system provides skillful predictions for most analyzed basins. OpenForecast v2 is in operational use and is openly available on the Internet. Full article
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15 pages, 4930 KiB  
Article
Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software
by Vasilis Bellos, Vasileios Kaisar Tsakiris, George Kopsiaftis and George Tsakiris
Hydrology 2020, 7(4), 72; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology7040072 - 03 Oct 2020
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 2811
Abstract
Dam break studies consist of two submodels: (a) the dam breach submodel which derives the flood hydrograph and (b) the hydrodynamic submodel which, using the flood hydrograph, derives the flood peaks and maximum water depths in the downstream reaches of the river. In [...] Read more.
Dam break studies consist of two submodels: (a) the dam breach submodel which derives the flood hydrograph and (b) the hydrodynamic submodel which, using the flood hydrograph, derives the flood peaks and maximum water depths in the downstream reaches of the river. In this paper, a thorough investigation of the uncertainty observed in the output of the hydrodynamic model, due to the seven dam breach parameters, is performed in a real-world case study (Papadiana Dam, located at Tavronitis River in Crete, Greece). Three levels of uncertainty are examined (flow peak of the flood hydrograph at the dam location, flow peaks and maximum water depths downstream along the river) with two methods: (a) a Morris-based sensitivity analysis for investigating the influence of each parameter on the final results; (b) a Monte Carlo-based forward uncertainty analysis for defining the distribution of uncertainty band and its statistical characteristics. Among others, it is found that uncertainty of the flow peaks is greater than the uncertainty of the maximum water depths, whereas there is a decreasing trend of uncertainty as we move downstream along the river. Full article
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18 pages, 4449 KiB  
Article
Study on the Improved Method of Urban Subcatchments Division Based on Aspect and Slope- Taking SWMM Model as Example
by Zening Wu, Bingyan Ma, Huiliang Wang and Caihong Hu
Hydrology 2020, 7(2), 26; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology7020026 - 09 May 2020
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3370
Abstract
The storm water management model (SWMM) is widely used in urban rainfall runoff simulations, but there are no clear rules for the division of its sub catchment areas. At present, the popular sub catchment area division method takes the average slope as the [...] Read more.
The storm water management model (SWMM) is widely used in urban rainfall runoff simulations, but there are no clear rules for the division of its sub catchment areas. At present, the popular sub catchment area division method takes the average slope as the slope parameter of the sub catchment area, which brings errors to the model in mechanism. Based on the current method, this paper proposes a new method to further subdivide the sub catchment area of the SWMM model, according to the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data of underlying surface, slope and aspect information. By comparing with the previous methods, it was found that the division method based on slope and aspect can make the setting of model parameters and hydraulic exchange conditions clearer, and improve the accuracy of the model on a certain level. Full article
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Review

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35 pages, 3891 KiB  
Review
Flood Risk in Urban Areas: Modelling, Management and Adaptation to Climate Change. A Review
by Luís Cea and Pierfranco Costabile
Hydrology 2022, 9(3), 50; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/hydrology9030050 - 18 Mar 2022
Cited by 46 | Viewed by 13134
Abstract
The modelling and management of flood risk in urban areas are increasingly recognized as global challenges. The complexity of these issues is a consequence of the existence of several distinct sources of risk, including not only fluvial, tidal and coastal flooding, but also [...] Read more.
The modelling and management of flood risk in urban areas are increasingly recognized as global challenges. The complexity of these issues is a consequence of the existence of several distinct sources of risk, including not only fluvial, tidal and coastal flooding, but also exposure to urban runoff and local drainage failure, and the various management strategies that can be proposed. The high degree of vulnerability that characterizes such areas is expected to increase in the future due to the effects of climate change, the growth of the population living in cities, and urban densification. An increasing awareness of the socio-economic losses and environmental impact of urban flooding is clearly reflected in the recent expansion of the number of studies related to the modelling and management of urban flooding, sometimes within the framework of adaptation to climate change. The goal of the current paper is to provide a general review of the recent advances in flood-risk modelling and management, while also exploring future perspectives in these fields of research. Full article
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