Pension Mathematics—New Development for the Near Future

A special issue of Mathematics (ISSN 2227-7390). This special issue belongs to the section "Financial Mathematics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2022) | Viewed by 12712

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Faculty of Economics and Business, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Avda. Lehendakari Agirre, 83. 48015-Bilbao, Spain
Interests: financial mathematics; actuarial mathematics; welfare economics; risk management and insurance; social insurance; quantitative social research

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Faculty of Economics and Business, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Avda. Lehendakari Agirre, 83. 48015-Bilbao, Spain
Interests: financial mathematics; risk management; risk modeling; insurance economics; actuarial science

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Guest Editor
Department of Economics and Business, University of Almería, La Cañada de San Urbano, 04120 Almería, Spain
Interests: financial mathematics; financial operations; partial least squares structural equation modeling; panel data linear regressions; logit and probit models; applied econometrics; ethical banking; gender economics studies; health economics; corporate social responsibility
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Many institutions are calling for public and private pension systems to be restructured. The OECD and the World Bank, among others, are advocating a remodeling of these systems. Classic solutions have not worked. Today, there is a threat of economic, demographic, and financial risks that threaten the sustainability of these systems. New problems such as longevity and ageing populations, economic deflation, negative returns, and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic make it necessary to manage and develop innovative pension models that are able to cope with these new social challenges.

This Special Issue of Mathematics is dedicated to high-quality articles that advance the state of the art with innovative theoretical, practical, and policy developments in modelling risks affecting public and private pension systems. Articles related to, but not limited to, the following topics are welcome:

  • Sustainable design of both public and vested DB and DC retirement plans.
  • Labor and social risks in the funded phase.
  • Rate of return in the construction of the pension payout phase.
  • Longevity and low-interest-rate risks in the pension payout period.
  • Predictive modelling of longevity and ageing and its application to pension plan design.
  • Automatic balancing mechanisms in the face of longevity, ageing, and low interest rates.
  • New models of financing and social coverage. Basic social benefits.
  • Measurement of social risks through actuarial criteria: equity, stability, and actuarial.
  • Optimal asset liability management models for pension funds.
  • Life cycle and alternative management of pension plans.

Prof. Dr. Joseba Iñaki De la Peña Esteban
Dr. Asier Garayeta
Prof. Dr. María del Carmen Valls Martínez
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • pensions
  • ageing
  • longevity
  • actuarial mathematics
  • social security crisis

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

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21 pages, 2529 KiB  
Article
Optimal Pension Fund Management with Foreign Investment in a Stochastic Environment
by Mei-Ling Tang, Ting-Pin Wu and Ming-Chin Hung
Mathematics 2022, 10(14), 2468; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10142468 - 15 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1326
Abstract
To ensure the success of a pension plan under a self-contained defined contribution (DC) retirement plan, the inclusion of foreign assets in a local pension portfolio could be beneficial for risk diversification and the efficient improvement of a fund’s investment performance during its [...] Read more.
To ensure the success of a pension plan under a self-contained defined contribution (DC) retirement plan, the inclusion of foreign assets in a local pension portfolio could be beneficial for risk diversification and the efficient improvement of a fund’s investment performance during its accumulation phase. This study focuses on developing international asset allocation criteria for a DC pension plan; accordingly, we consider risk exposure relative to stochastic interest rates and ex- change rates with minimum guarantees. An arbitrage-free framework, namely, the cross-currency Heath–Jarrow–Morton interest rate model, is introduced in dynamic optimization programming for the DC pension fund. The proposed solution based on the generalized stochastic framework provides tractable and appropriate criteria for the dynamic allocation of a DC pension fund. The constituents of the optimal solution can reflect changes in investment lifecycles and shifts in risk preferences during the accumulation phase of a DC pension plan. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Pension Mathematics—New Development for the Near Future)
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19 pages, 938 KiB  
Article
A Methodological Approximation of the Measurement of Instrumental Social Exclusion from the Capability Approach: The Case of Vulnerable Areas in the City of Murcia, Spain
by Jose Antonio Sánchez-Martí and María Isabel Angoa Pérez
Mathematics 2022, 10(1), 79; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10010079 - 27 Dec 2021
Viewed by 1839
Abstract
The indirect effects of social exclusion in different fields of the lives of individuals have been scarcely studied. The literature that addresses social exclusion from the capability approach is sparse, and a methodology for measuring the instrumental effects of social exclusion on capability [...] Read more.
The indirect effects of social exclusion in different fields of the lives of individuals have been scarcely studied. The literature that addresses social exclusion from the capability approach is sparse, and a methodology for measuring the instrumental effects of social exclusion on capability deprivation has not yet been implemented. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to propose a methodological framework to quantify these effects, based on two techniques: Structural equation modelling and principal component analysis. Likewise, this study presents a practical application in the vulnerable areas of the city of Murcia, Spain. In order to obtain the data, fieldwork was carried out using 464 questionnaires. The theorised model was statistically contrasted, confirming that it is not false. The study revealed that instrumental social exclusion had a moderate impact on the deprivations experienced by the study population. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Pension Mathematics—New Development for the Near Future)
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27 pages, 1668 KiB  
Article
Linking Pensions to Life Expectancy: Tackling Conceptual Uncertainty through Bayesian Model Averaging
by Jorge M. Bravo and Mercedes Ayuso
Mathematics 2021, 9(24), 3307; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math9243307 - 19 Dec 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2483
Abstract
Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses of pension schemes to aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but there are other dimensions of welfare restructuring [...] Read more.
Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses of pension schemes to aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but there are other dimensions of welfare restructuring in the politics of pension reforms, including recalibration, rationalization, and blame avoidance for unpopular policies that involve retrenchments. This paper examines the policy designs and implications of linking entry pensions to life expectancy developments through sustainability factors or life expectancy coefficients in Finland, Portugal, and Spain. To address conceptual and specification uncertainty in policymaking, we propose and apply a Bayesian model averaging approach to stochastic mortality modeling and life expectancy computation. The results show that: (i) sustainability factors will generate substantial pension entitlement reductions in the three countries analyzed; (ii) the magnitude of the pension losses depends on the factor design; (iii) to offset pension cuts and safeguard pension adequacy, individuals will have to prolong their working lives significantly; (iv) factor designs considering cohort longevity markers would have generated higher pension cuts in countries with increasing life expectancy gap. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Pension Mathematics—New Development for the Near Future)
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Review

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25 pages, 4900 KiB  
Review
Pensions, Ageing and Social Security Research: Literature Review and Global Trends
by María del Carmen Valls Martínez, José Manuel Santos-Jaén, Fahim-ul Amin and Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes
Mathematics 2021, 9(24), 3258; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math9243258 - 15 Dec 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4647
Abstract
Pension systems are one of the fundamental pillars of the welfare state. The ageing of the population caused by longer life expectancy and low birth rates has led to a crisis in the public pension system in developed countries. Changes for the system’s [...] Read more.
Pension systems are one of the fundamental pillars of the welfare state. The ageing of the population caused by longer life expectancy and low birth rates has led to a crisis in the public pension system in developed countries. Changes for the system’s sustainability are necessary, and the scientific literature on the subject is abundant, especially in recent years. This article aims to carry out a bibliometric analysis of the research carried out to date, highlighting, in turn, future lines of research. The study was carried out on a total of 1287 articles published from 1936 to 2021 and found in the Scopus database. The SciMAT, VOSviewer, and Datawrapper tools were used to analyse the most important articles, authors, countries, and institutions by volume of production and citations, as well as the relationships between them. Likewise, the most important keywords and their evolution over time were highlighted, obtaining the main focus of the research. In addition to the general analysis, a specific study was carried out in the area of Mathematics. The results show that the leading countries are the United Kingdom, the USA, and the Netherlands. On the other hand, the lead subject area in which these articles have been published is Economics, Econometrics, and Finance. The research trends are sustainability, pension reform related to ageing, and pension insurance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Pension Mathematics—New Development for the Near Future)
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