Submit to Mathematics Review for Mathematics Propose a Special Issue

Journal Browser

► Journal Browser

From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business

Print Special Issue Flyer
Special Issue Editors
Special Issue Information
Keywords
Published Papers

A special issue of Mathematics (ISSN 2227-7390). This special issue belongs to the section "Financial Mathematics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2022) | Viewed by 33496

Printed Edition Available!
A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business book cover image

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Lina Novickytė

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Government Strategic Analysis Center, A. Gostauto str. 9, 2F, LT-01108 Vilnius, Lithuania
Interests: multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis; efficiency; banks; data envelopment analysis; input–output; non-parametric methods; behavioral economics; risk management; behavioral finance

Dr. Jolanta Droždz

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, Sauletekio ave. 9, II bld., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania
Interests: risk management; agricultural finance; agricultural policy; international economics; international trade; foreign direct investments

Prof. Dr. Radosław Pastusiak

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz, POW Street 3/5, 90-255 Lodz, Poland
Interests: capital markets; corporate finance; agricultural finance; sustainability

Dr. Michał Soliwoda

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz, POW Street 3/5, 90-255 Lodz, Poland
Interests: risk management household finance; SME finance; agricultural finance; agricultural policy

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a particularly important challenge for empirical research in economics and finance. The “resilience” category is often used in international documents concerning crisis management. The category of resilience enters numerous, usually overly complex interactions with many important socio-economic and public categories, important for various spheres of the economy, politics, and life of citizens. The aim of the Special Issue is to explore quantitative methods of measuring resilience, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The measurement and assessment of resilience at different levels requires advanced quantitative and qualitative methods that are based on dynamic approaches and interaction with other socio-economic categories, which, consequently, makes it exceedingly difficult to develop public policies that are oriented towards strengthening resilience in general. A good example is the integrated measurement and assessment of economic and financial resilience of households by international organisations. There is a possible conflict in macro and micro approaches, which can be greatly beneficial at the application level to check the consistency of assumptions, approaches, and conclusions. In the context of public policy, the concept of resilience enables a more in-depth understanding of how economic entities cope with shocks and tensions.

This Special Issue aims at collecting original research papers, comprehensive reviews on the theory and practice on development and implementation of advanced mathematical and instrumental methods in the field of assessing resilience in various economic and business sectors. Applied quantitative methods will allow a better understanding of the interactions between economic and business socio-economic activities, and will contribute to the development of new models or the improvement of existing ones. These methods can be based on traditional modelling and forecasting tools, as well as on the new tools associated with the development of intelligent digital technologies, big data use, and so on.

Dr. Lina Novickytė
Dr. Jolanta Droždz
Prof. Dr. Radosław Pastusiak
Dr. Michał Soliwoda
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Mathematics is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

economic mathematics
business mathematics
financial mathematics
digital economy
risk management
economic modelling and forecasting
managerial economics
resilience
quantitative methods
decision-making
behavioral change
practical applications (government, economics, development, agriculture, industry, services)

Published Papers (11 papers)

Download All Papers

Research

14 pages, 314 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis

by Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu and Eugenia Grecu

Mathematics 2023, 11(5), 1171; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math11051171 - 27 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1344

Abstract

We test the interaction between governments’ COVID-19 interventions, COVID-19-induced uncertainty, and the volatility of sovereign bonds. Different from previous literature, we investigate the asymmetric response of bond market volatility to both governmental interventions and COVID-19-induced uncertainty. With a focus on the first waves of the pandemic and using a panel quantile approach and a comprehensive dataset of 31 countries worldwide, we document that containment and closure policies tend to amplify volatility. Furthermore, the price variability is augmented by the spread of the pandemic itself. On the contrary, economic support policies have a substantial stabilizing effect on bond price fluctuations. Both phenomena are not subsumed by additional control variables and are robust to multiple considerations. Our findings may serve financial market participants in their risk management decisions, as well as policymakers to better shape their preparedness for future pandemics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

19 pages, 4092 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Bitcoin Halving Cycle Volatility Dynamics and Safe Haven-Hedge Properties: A MSGARCH Approach

by Jireh Yi-Le Chan, Seuk Wai Phoong, Seuk Yen Phoong, Wai Khuen Cheng and Yen-Lin Chen

Mathematics 2023, 11(3), 698; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math11030698 - 30 Jan 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 10330

Abstract

This paper introduces a unique perspective towards Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties through the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin price movement follows specific sequences, and Bitcoin price movement is independent of other assets. This has significant implications for Bitcoin properties, encompassing its risk profile, volatility dynamics, safe haven properties, and hedge properties. Bitcoin’s institutional and industrial adoption gained traction in 2021, while recent studies suggest that gold lost its safe haven properties against the S&P500 in 2021 amid signs of funds flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. Amid multiple forces at play (COVID-19, halving cycle, institutional adoption), the potential existence of regime changes should be considered when examining volatility dynamics. Therefore, the objective of this study is twofold. The first objective is to examine gold and Bitcoin safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices before and after the stock market selloff in March 2020. The second objective is to examine the potential regime changes and the symmetric properties of the Bitcoin volatility profile during the halving cycle. The Markov Switching GARCH model was used in this study to elucidate regime changes in the GARCH volatility dynamics of Bitcoin and its halving cycle. Results show that gold did not exhibit safe haven and hedge properties against three US stock indices after the COVID-19 outbreak, while Bitcoin did not exhibit safe haven or hedge properties against the US stock market indices before or after the COVID-19 pandemic market crash. Furthermore, this study also found that the regime changes are associated with low and high volatility periods rather than specific stages of a Bitcoin halving cycle and are asymmetric. Bitcoin may yet exhibit safe haven and hedge properties as, at the time of writing, these properties may manifest through sustained adoption growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 989 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time-Varying Granger Causality of COVID-19 News on Emerging Financial Markets: The Latin American Case

by Semei Coronado, Jose N. Martinez, Victor Gualajara, Rafael Romero-Meza and Omar Rojas

Mathematics 2023, 11(2), 394; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math11020394 - 12 Jan 2023

Viewed by 1604

Abstract

This study uses daily COVID-19 news series to determine their impact on financial market volatility. This paper assesses whether U.S. financial markets react differently to COVID-19 news than emerging markets and if such markets are impacted differently by country-specific and global news. To detect the spillover effects from news on market volatility, a time-varying DCC-GARCH model was applied. The results suggest that the U.S. and emerging markets are affected differently by pandemic news, global series have a stronger impact on emerging markets than country-specific ones, and misleading information plays a significant role in financial market volatility, especially for the U.S. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

15 pages, 1208 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Post-COVID-19 Family Micro-Business Resources and Agritourism Performance: A Two-Mediated Moderated Quantitative-Based Model with a PLS-SEM Data Analysis Method

by Ibrahim A. Elshaer, Ahmad M. AboAlkhair, Sameh Fayyad and Alaa M. S. Azazz

Mathematics 2023, 11(2), 359; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math11020359 - 10 Jan 2023

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 1824

Abstract

The global spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a devastating impact on thousands of small businesses. Many businesspeople, especially those who own and run micro-businesses, have been hampered by the unprecedented scale of the lockdown of social activities and the restrictions placed on their freedom of movement. The reciprocity process between small rural businesses and residents is ultimately in the interest of improving agrotourism performance. Integrating the non-zero-sum games theory and the social exchange theory, this study aims to achieve the following: (1) testing the relationship between family micro-businesses resources and agritourism performance; (2) examining the impact of two mediating variables (resident–micro-business interaction and support for agritourism development); and (3) testing the intervention of one moderating variable (personal resident benefit) on the tested relationships. Dyads data was collected from 293 residents/family small businesses operators. Partial least squares-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) with the SmartPLS program was employed to analyze the collected data. Family micro-business resources were found to have a positive and significant impact on agritourism performance, moreover, resident–micro-business interaction and support for agritourism development were found to partially mediate the relationship between family micro-business resources and agritourism performance, and the personal resident benefit significantly moderated the relationship between family micro-business resources and resident–micro-business interaction. Several implications for academics and policymakers were elaborated. The limitations and further study opportunities were also discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 339 KiB

Open AccessArticle

COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises

by Dominika Gajdosikova, Katarina Valaskova, Tomas Kliestik and Veronika Machova

Mathematics 2022, 10(17), 3130; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10173130 - 01 Sep 2022

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 2500

Abstract

The corona crisis has affected not only the economic sphere, but also the sphere of health, health care, employment, safety, and health protection in the workplace, shopping habits, and future expectations, to which people adapt their decisions in various areas of daily life. The COVID-19 pandemic, called a global health crisis, was an unpredictable risk of global proportions that paralyzed the entire world. The main aim of this paper is to quantify the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the construction sector, which is considered a crucial sector of the Slovak economy, to evaluate changes in the development of key indicators using adequate quantitative methods. First, a sample of 2000 businesses were analyzed using the 12 financial indicators that were chosen. Second, using the non-parametric Friedman test, a more thorough study was carried out with a focus on analyzing the existence of statistically significant variations in the values of computed indicators as a result of changes in the development of key financial ratios. The Bonferroni adjustments were employed to pinpoint the areas of stochastic dominance at the conclusion of the study. A detailed analysis of the calculated financial indicators showed that the arrival of the pandemic had a negative impact on many aspects of business in the construction sector and affected the financial and economic situation of companies in the construction sector of the Slovak Republic. However, due to the fact that this sector is characterized by slower reactions to changes in the economy, the most significant impacts will be even more noticeable in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

14 pages, 2080 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

The Role of Broadband Infrastructure in Building Economic Resiliency in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Raúl Katz and Juan Jung

Mathematics 2022, 10(16), 2988; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10162988 - 18 Aug 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1482

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the role of broadband in mitigating the economic losses resulting from COVID-19 in the United States by providing a necessary infrastructure to keep economic systems operating, albeit partially. The study is based on an empirical framework underlined by a Cobb–Douglas production function and estimated within a structural multi-equation model through the three-stage least squares approach. To consider the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, we rely on two main variables: an indicator of the quantity of deaths attributed to the disease for every 100,000 inhabitants; and the Stringency Index, a metric linked to the intensity of social restrictions imposed by national and local governments. The main contribution of this article is to provide robust evidence for how the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic across states are in part explained by differences in broadband adoption. Our results indicate that those states with higher broadband adoption were able to mitigate a larger portion of their economic losses derived from the pandemic-induced lockdowns. Addressing the digital divide and ensuring universal access to broadband represent critical goals for building economic resilience to face future emergencies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 1680 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Amid COVID-19 Pandemic, Entrepreneurial Resilience and Creative Performance with the Mediating Role of Institutional Orientation: A Quantitative Investigation Using Structural Equation Modeling

by Alaa M. S. Azazz and Ibrahim A. Elshaer

Mathematics 2022, 10(12), 2127; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10122127 - 18 Jun 2022

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3074

Abstract

As a result of the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), thousands of small companies around the world have been severely disrupted. Many business professionals, particularly entrepreneurs, suffer from the unprecedented magnitude of the lockdown of social activities, which is combined with limits on individual mobility. This study investigates the resilience of entrepreneurs—which is characterized by hardiness, resourcefulness, and optimism—as well as the relationship between resilience and creative performance. Additionally, the mediating role of institutional orientation is investigated in order to highlight how contextual factors influence this relationship. Using a quantitative study approach and structural equation modeling data analysis technique, 390 entrepreneurs were investigated, and the analyzed data demonstrate that entrepreneurs’ ability to persevere in the face of adversity is strongly related to their ability to innovate, with institutional orientation serving as a partial mediating variable. Implications and future research opportunities are also explored in the paper. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

23 pages, 10176 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Juan Antonio Galán-Gutiérrez and Rodrigo Martín-García

Mathematics 2022, 10(4), 559; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math10040559 - 11 Feb 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2758

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked commodities markets in general and base metals markets in particular. The market turmoil made it very difficult to act in the physical market, given the impossibility of establishing or maintaining physical and/or financial positions in a context of high uncertainty. This has happened both in different moments of the development of the pandemic and in geographically different frames. That is why this contribution tries to explain the evolution of warehouses and copper price structure and its utility for hedging in the context of an extreme event. To that end, Granger causality has been used to test whether, during the COVID-19 first wave, the pandemic evolution is cointegrated on one hand with copper futures price structure and, on the other, with the incremental levels of copper stocks. Using 102 official copper prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) trading days, between 13 January 2020 and 5 June 2020 (once the most severe effects of the first wave had been overcome), it was demonstrated that, during the first COVID-19 wave in Europe, the weekly death index variation was cointegrated with the copper future price structure. It has been proven that, in this timelapse, contango in futures price structure has increased its value, and the incremental levels of stock in copper LME warehouses are linked with a stable contango structure. In short, we find that fundamental market effects predominate, in a context in which commodities used to be more financialized. This leads market players, such as traders, miners, and transformers, to move exposures in their hedging structures, under such extreme event situations, in favor of or against either contango or backwardation, so as to derive value from them. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

13 pages, 2885 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of COVID-19 on the Robustness of the Probability of Default Estimation Model

by Ming-Chin Hung, Yung-Kang Ching and Shih-Kuei Lin

Mathematics 2021, 9(23), 3087; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math9233087 - 30 Nov 2021

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2000

Abstract

Probability of default (PD) estimation is essential to the calculation of expected credit loss under the Basel III framework and the International Financial Reporting Standard 9. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been adopted as a key determinant in PD estimation models. However, PD models with a GDP covariate may not perform well under aberrant (i.e., outlier) conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study explored the robustness of a PD model with a GDP determinant (the test model) in comparison with that of a PD model with a credit default swap index (CDX) determinant (the alternative model). The test model had a significantly greater ratio of increase in Akaike information criterion than the alternative model in comparisons of the fit performance of models including 2020 data with that of models excluding 2020 data (i.e., that do not cover the COVID-19 pandemic). Furthermore, the Cook’s distance of the 2020 data of the test model was significantly greater than that of the alternative model. Therefore, the test model exhibited a serious robustness issue in outlier scenarios, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the alternative model was more robust. This finding opens the prospect for the CDX to potentially serve as an alternative to GDP in PD estimation models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

33 pages, 6193 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Theory and Practice of Quantitative Assessment of System Harmonicity: Case of Road Safety in Russia before and during the COVID-19 Epidemic

by Artur I. Petrov, Victor I. Kolesov and Daria A. Petrova

Mathematics 2021, 9(21), 2812; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math9212812 - 05 Nov 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1816

Abstract

People have had an interest in harmony issues for thousands of years; however, there is still no elaborated system of views on these questions. Ancient Greeks understood harmony as an agreement of opposites. A surge of interest in the study of the harmonic aspects of being occurred in the twentieth century due to the development of systems science, particularly regarding synergetic system effects. At the same time, there are still relatively few applications of synergetics because of the absence of an accurate methodology for the identification of system harmonicity. The aim of this research is to develop the methodology for the quantitative assessment of system harmonicity by considering a practical example: the quantitative assessment of the harmonicity of the road safety provision system (RSS) and its dynamics during the last 15 years (2006–2020). In addition, the impact of the COVID restrictions on population mobility in Russia in 2020, on the change in the harmonicity of the road safety provision system, is considered. During the research it was established that the quality factor g of the Russian road safety provision system changed from g₂₀₀₆ = 1.9565 to g₂₀₂₀ = 2.4646, which promoted the decline of the relative entropy of the Russian road safety provision system from H_{n RSS}₂₀₀₆ = 0.8623 to H_{n RSS}₂₀₂₀ = 0.7553. The deep reason for that change was the modification of relation between “weights” or the significance of the contribution of different elements of the cause-and-effect chain in the formation of the factual level of the road accident rate in Russia in the last 15 years. The main conclusion of this research is that the harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized functional general utility GU_n_, has been increased, and it has already exceeded the level of harmonious reference systems GU_n = 0.618. In fact, the normalized functional general utility GU_n of the Russian road safety provision system increased from GU_n_RSS₂₀₀₆ = 0.615 to GU_n_RSS₂₀₂₀ = 0.652 (by 6.0%), from 2006 to 2020. Simultaneously, the share of the normalized used resource X_n declined, allowing a conclusion to be drawn about a significant improvement in the balance “efficiency-quality” of the Russian road safety provision system. The COVID lockdown played a positive role in this process. Harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized general utility GU_n_RSS, increased by 0.46% from 2019 to 2020. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

30 pages, 2064 KiB

Open AccessArticle

On K-Means Clustering with IVIF Datasets for Post-COVID-19 Recovery Efforts

by Lanndon Ocampo, Joerabell Lourdes Aro, Samantha Shane Evangelista, Fatima Maturan, Egberto Selerio, Jr., Nadine May Atibing and Kafferine Yamagishi

Mathematics 2021, 9(20), 2639; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/math9202639 - 19 Oct 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2899

Abstract

The recovery efforts of the tourism and hospitality sector are compromised by the emergence of COVID-19 variants that can escape vaccines. Thus, maintaining non-pharmaceutical measures amidst massive vaccine rollouts is still relevant. The previous works which categorize tourist sites and restaurants according to the perceived degree of tourists’ and customers’ exposure to COVID-19 are deemed relevant for sectoral recovery. Due to the subjectivity of predetermining categories, along with the failure of capturing vagueness and uncertainty in the evaluation process, this work explores the use

k

-means clustering with dataset values expressed as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. In addition, the proposed method allows for the incorporation of criteria (or attribute) weights into the dataset, often not considered in traditional

k

-means clustering but relevant in clustering problems with attributes having varying priorities. Two previously reported case studies were analyzed to demonstrate the proposed approach, and comparative and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results show that the priorities of the criteria in evaluating tourist sites remain the same. However, in evaluating restaurants, customers put emphasis on the physical characteristics of the restaurants. The proposed approach assigns 12, 15, and eight sites to the “low exposure”, “moderate exposure”, and “high exposure” cluster, respectively, each with distinct characteristics. On the other hand, 16 restaurants are assigned “low exposure”, 16 to “moderate exposure”, and eight to “high exposure” clusters, also with distinct characteristics. The characteristics described in the clusters offer meaningful insights for sectoral recovery efforts. Findings also show that the proposed approach is robust to small parameter changes. Although idiosyncrasies exist in the results of both case studies, considering the characteristics of the resulting clusters, tourists or customers could evaluate any tourist site or restaurant according to their perceived exposure to COVID-19. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

From COVID-19 to Resilience: Quantitative Methods in Economics and Business

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editors

Special Issue Information

Keywords

Published Papers (11 papers)

Research

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI